英伟达股价本月累计跌幅已达7%，部分源于Meta考虑采用谷歌芯片为其人工智能模型提供动力。通常情况下，鉴于“美股七巨头”估值过高，此类消息会对股价造成严重冲击。但近日，交易员们对英伟达的跌幅视而不见，全球股市全面反弹拉开序幕。
德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）分析师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）及其团队如此描述当前市场的乐观情绪：“自周四触及低点以来，标普500指数在三个交易日内累计涨幅达3.47%，创下自五月中美关税下调以来最强劲的三日涨幅，距历史高点不足2%。美股呈现普涨态势，小型股罗素2000指数当日上涨2.14%，标普500等权重指数上涨1.45%。”
市场为何迎来全面向好态势？主要有五大因素：
首先，标普500成份股公司实际表现强劲。LPL Financial分析师杰弗里·布赫宾德（Jeffrey Buchbinder）、亚当·特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist）和布莱恩·布伊（Brian Booe）指出，已有95%的企业公布第三季度财报：“每股收益（EPS）增长率超过13%……远超7.4%的市场普遍预期，标普500指数成份股公司营收增长8.4%，较季度末预期高出2.5%，表现异常强劲。”
这种良好态势也在私募市场有所体现。追踪私募信贷市场的林肯国际（Lincoln International）向《财富》杂志透露，其数据库中，68%的企业过去12个月实现营收增长，62%的企业调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）实现增长。截至2025年第三季度的12个月内，企业营收平均增长6.5%，息税折旧摊销前利润增长5.4%。
衡量市场波动性的VIX“恐慌指数”过去五日下跌23.08%，表明股市投资者已不再担忧人工智能泡沫会破坏市场势头。
摩根大通（JPMorgan）将标普500指数2026年末目标值上调至7500点，杜布拉夫科·拉科斯-布亚什（Dubravko Lakos-Bujas）及其团队今日上午告知客户，预测“未来至少两年内，企业盈利将增长13%-15%，显著高于趋势水平”。
最后，芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具显示，美联储12月再度降息的可能性正持续攀升，当前降息概率已达84%，这意味着新一轮低成本资金即将注入市场。
换言之，英伟达虽如汤里的苍蝇，但浓汤依然美味。（顺带一提，不必为英伟达投资者太过惋惜，其股价年内涨幅仍达32.41%。）（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
英伟达股价本月累计跌幅已达7%，部分源于Meta考虑采用谷歌芯片为其人工智能模型提供动力。通常情况下，鉴于“美股七巨头”估值过高，此类消息会对股价造成严重冲击。但近日，交易员们对英伟达的跌幅视而不见，全球股市全面反弹拉开序幕。
德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）分析师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）及其团队如此描述当前市场的乐观情绪：“自周四触及低点以来，标普500指数在三个交易日内累计涨幅达3.47%，创下自五月中美关税下调以来最强劲的三日涨幅，距历史高点不足2%。美股呈现普涨态势，小型股罗素2000指数当日上涨2.14%，标普500等权重指数上涨1.45%。”
市场为何迎来全面向好态势？主要有五大因素：
首先，标普500成份股公司实际表现强劲。LPL Financial分析师杰弗里·布赫宾德（Jeffrey Buchbinder）、亚当·特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist）和布莱恩·布伊（Brian Booe）指出，已有95%的企业公布第三季度财报：“每股收益（EPS）增长率超过13%……远超7.4%的市场普遍预期，标普500指数成份股公司营收增长8.4%，较季度末预期高出2.5%，表现异常强劲。”
这种良好态势也在私募市场有所体现。追踪私募信贷市场的林肯国际（Lincoln International）向《财富》杂志透露，其数据库中，68%的企业过去12个月实现营收增长，62%的企业调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）实现增长。截至2025年第三季度的12个月内，企业营收平均增长6.5%，息税折旧摊销前利润增长5.4%。
衡量市场波动性的VIX“恐慌指数”过去五日下跌23.08%，表明股市投资者已不再担忧人工智能泡沫会破坏市场势头。
摩根大通（JPMorgan）将标普500指数2026年末目标值上调至7500点，杜布拉夫科·拉科斯-布亚什（Dubravko Lakos-Bujas）及其团队今日上午告知客户，预测“未来至少两年内，企业盈利将增长13%-15%，显著高于趋势水平”。
最后，芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具显示，美联储12月再度降息的可能性正持续攀升，当前降息概率已达84%，这意味着新一轮低成本资金即将注入市场。
换言之，英伟达虽如汤里的苍蝇，但浓汤依然美味。（顺带一提，不必为英伟达投资者太过惋惜，其股价年内涨幅仍达32.41%。）（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Nvidia stock was down 2.59% yesterday, and it’s now down 7% for the month. The negativity continued this morning: The company’s shares were down a further 1.34% overnight, mostly on news that Meta was considering using Google’s chips to power its AI models. Normally, given the excess valuations that the Magnificent Seven tech companies carry, this would be a disaster for stocks. But this morning, traders are ignoring Nvidia and a global rally in stocks is underway.
Jim Reid and his team at Deutsche Bank described the buoyant mood like this: “The three-day advance for the S&P since Thursday’s low stands at +3.47%, which is the strongest three-day move since the U.S.-China tariff reduction back in May and leaves the index less than 2% from its all-time high. The U.S. equity advance was broad-based, with the small-cap Russell 2000 up +2.14% and the equal-weighted S&P 500 up +1.45% on the day.”
Why the good cheer? Five main factors:
First, companies in the S&P are actually doing quite well. With 95% of them having reported Q3 results: “Earnings per share (EPS) growth is tracking over 13% … cruising past the 7.4% consensus forecast,” according to LPL Financial analysts Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist, and Brian Booe. “S&P 500 revenue grew 8.4%, an atypically strong 2.5% above expectations at quarter-end.”
That good fortune is reflected in the private markets, too. Lincoln International—which tracks the private credit market—told Fortune that 68% of companies in its database grew their revenue over the preceding 12 months, and 62% grew their adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda). Revenue was up an average of 6.5% in the 12 months through Q3 2025; Ebitda was up 5.4%.
The VIX “fear” index, which measures volatility, has declined 23.08% over the past five days, suggesting that stock investors have stopped being scared that an AI bubble will derail market momentum.
JPMorgan set a new target for the S&P for the end of 2026: 7,500, projecting “above-trend earnings growth of 13% to 15% for at least the next two years,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and his team told clients this morning.
And finally, it’s looking more and more likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December, delivering a new round of cheaper money, according to the CME FedWatch tool, which currently rates the possibility of a cut at 84%.
Nvidia, in other words, is a fly in the market’s soup, but the soup still tastes pretty good. (Don’t cry too many tears for Nvidia investors, by the way, its stock is still up 32.41% year to date.)