诺贝尔经济学奖得主、纽约市立大学研究生中心经济学教授保罗·克鲁格曼认为，比特币价格的崩盘与唐纳德·特朗普总统政治权力减弱的迹象同时发生，这并非巧合。
比特币在上个月创下12.6万美元的历史新高后，过去一个月一直处于自由落体状态，在上周跌至约8.1万美元的六个月低点后，截至上周三位于约8.7万美元。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，加密货币市场高达1万亿美元的大规模抛售，甚至让在加密领域拥有大量投资的特朗普家族财富缩水了10亿美元。
在曾任《纽约时报》专栏作家多年且一向直言不讳的克鲁格曼看来，比特币最近的暴跌表明特朗普已经失去了他的优势。克鲁格曼指出，特朗普长期以来对加密行业持友好态度，并且在该领域有大量投资。
“我们应如何理解比特币最近的暴跌？可以将其视为‘特朗普交易'的瓦解，”克鲁格曼在周一的一篇Substack文章中说道。“特朗普依然像以往一样决心回报让其家族致富的行业，而他身边的人也依然像以往一样决心让美国成为各种掠夺者的安全港湾。”
“但特朗普的权力正明显减弱，因此实际上已成为对特朗普主义下注的比特币价格已经暴跌，”他补充道。
克鲁格曼关于‘特朗普交易'瓦解的论点
克鲁格曼从不掩饰他对加密货币、特朗普以及特朗普主义的蔑视，他认为加密货币的崛起与特朗普政府针对加密投资者和交易所的一系列友好政策和行动密不可分。这包括呼吁建立政府比特币储备，以及在8月签署行政命令允许美国公民将退休储蓄投资于加密货币及其他另类资产。上个月，特朗普赦免了币安创始人赵长鹏，赵长鹏在2023年承认在担任该加密货币交易所首席执行官期间违反了美国反洗钱法。
特朗普本人持有估计价值8.7亿美元的比特币，这使他成为该货币的最大投资者之一，而他的家族在过去几年里也发展了自己的加密帝国。今年9月，由埃里克·特朗普和小唐纳德·特朗普支持的比特币挖矿公司American Bitcoin开始在纳斯达克交易，并且上市首日估值就达到50亿美元。3月发布的一份《财富》分析发现，特朗普持有的加密资产约占其净资产的30亿美元。
特朗普更广泛的政策行动与过去的加密资产抛售相关，包括上个月，当时价格暴跌与总统考虑对中国加征100%关税同时发生。
但克鲁格曼指出，最近特朗普的党派影响力已经动摇，证据包括两党近乎一致地支持公开爱泼斯坦文件，以及共和党人对总统处理经济方式的支持率下降，原因是人们对“K型经济”的担忧日益加剧。除此之外，民主党在选举中取得了压倒性胜利，包括在纽约和西雅图选出了民主社会主义者市长。
在克鲁格曼看来，这些选举失利以及对特朗普处理经济方式日益严格的审视，削弱了共和党人对总统表现出“亦步亦趋的服从”的意愿。他引用了博主兼记者乔希·马歇尔的观点，即“权力是统一的”，也就是说，总统形象任何部分的弱点都会转化为对其整体软弱的认知，这种认知会延伸到他在加密领域的影响力。
“被削弱的特朗普在所有阵线上贯彻其意志的能力都会下降，包括他在推广加密资产方面的努力，”克鲁格曼说。
诚然，克鲁格曼在归功于特朗普对加密货币的控制力方面可能过于慷慨，加密货币在其自身环境中运行，仅与掌权者相邻。白宫发言人库什·德赛表示，特朗普政府正在实施旨在帮助加密货币繁荣的政策，并驳斥了关于特朗普任内的非政策因素能够影响比特币价格的观点。
“只有白痴才会忽视这些政策，并将一种私人交易的加密货币的价格波动归因于与总统有关的非经济问题，”德赛在一份声明中对《财富》杂志表示。（*）
译者：朴成奎
诺贝尔经济学奖得主、纽约市立大学研究生中心经济学教授保罗·克鲁格曼认为，比特币价格的崩盘与唐纳德·特朗普总统政治权力减弱的迹象同时发生，这并非巧合。
比特币在上个月创下12.6万美元的历史新高后，过去一个月一直处于自由落体状态，在上周跌至约8.1万美元的六个月低点后，截至上周三位于约8.7万美元。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，加密货币市场高达1万亿美元的大规模抛售，甚至让在加密领域拥有大量投资的特朗普家族财富缩水了10亿美元。
在曾任《纽约时报》专栏作家多年且一向直言不讳的克鲁格曼看来，比特币最近的暴跌表明特朗普已经失去了他的优势。克鲁格曼指出，特朗普长期以来对加密行业持友好态度，并且在该领域有大量投资。
“我们应如何理解比特币最近的暴跌？可以将其视为‘特朗普交易'的瓦解，”克鲁格曼在周一的一篇Substack文章中说道。“特朗普依然像以往一样决心回报让其家族致富的行业，而他身边的人也依然像以往一样决心让美国成为各种掠夺者的安全港湾。”
“但特朗普的权力正明显减弱，因此实际上已成为对特朗普主义下注的比特币价格已经暴跌，”他补充道。
克鲁格曼关于‘特朗普交易'瓦解的论点
克鲁格曼从不掩饰他对加密货币、特朗普以及特朗普主义的蔑视，他认为加密货币的崛起与特朗普政府针对加密投资者和交易所的一系列友好政策和行动密不可分。这包括呼吁建立政府比特币储备，以及在8月签署行政命令允许美国公民将退休储蓄投资于加密货币及其他另类资产。上个月，特朗普赦免了币安创始人赵长鹏，赵长鹏在2023年承认在担任该加密货币交易所首席执行官期间违反了美国反洗钱法。
特朗普本人持有估计价值8.7亿美元的比特币，这使他成为该货币的最大投资者之一，而他的家族在过去几年里也发展了自己的加密帝国。今年9月，由埃里克·特朗普和小唐纳德·特朗普支持的比特币挖矿公司American Bitcoin开始在纳斯达克交易，并且上市首日估值就达到50亿美元。3月发布的一份《财富》分析发现，特朗普持有的加密资产约占其净资产的30亿美元。
特朗普更广泛的政策行动与过去的加密资产抛售相关，包括上个月，当时价格暴跌与总统考虑对中国加征100%关税同时发生。
但克鲁格曼指出，最近特朗普的党派影响力已经动摇，证据包括两党近乎一致地支持公开爱泼斯坦文件，以及共和党人对总统处理经济方式的支持率下降，原因是人们对“K型经济”的担忧日益加剧。除此之外，民主党在选举中取得了压倒性胜利，包括在纽约和西雅图选出了民主社会主义者市长。
在克鲁格曼看来，这些选举失利以及对特朗普处理经济方式日益严格的审视，削弱了共和党人对总统表现出“亦步亦趋的服从”的意愿。他引用了博主兼记者乔希·马歇尔的观点，即“权力是统一的”，也就是说，总统形象任何部分的弱点都会转化为对其整体软弱的认知，这种认知会延伸到他在加密领域的影响力。
“被削弱的特朗普在所有阵线上贯彻其意志的能力都会下降，包括他在推广加密资产方面的努力，”克鲁格曼说。
诚然，克鲁格曼在归功于特朗普对加密货币的控制力方面可能过于慷慨，加密货币在其自身环境中运行，仅与掌权者相邻。白宫发言人库什·德赛表示，特朗普政府正在实施旨在帮助加密货币繁荣的政策，并驳斥了关于特朗普任内的非政策因素能够影响比特币价格的观点。
“只有白痴才会忽视这些政策，并将一种私人交易的加密货币的价格波动归因于与总统有关的非经济问题，”德赛在一份声明中对《财富》杂志表示。（*）
译者：朴成奎
It's no coincidence that Bitcoin's collapsing price has coincided with signs of President Donald Trump's diminishing political power, according to Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize--winning economist and professor of economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York.
Fresh off its all-time high of $126,000 last month, Bitcoin has been in free fall for the past month, sitting at about $87,000 as of Wednesday after falling to a six-month low of about $81,000 last week. Cryptocurrency's broader $1 trillion selloff has even cost the Trump family---with its ample ventures in crypto---$1 billion of its fortune, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
To Krugman, formerly an outspoken and longtime New York Times columnist, Bitcoin's latest rout is an indication that Trump has lost his edge. Krugman notes that Trump has long been friendly to the crypto industry, in addition to having significant investments in the sector.
“How should we understand Bitcoin's recent crash? Think of it as the unraveling of the Trump trade,” Krugman said in a Substack post on Monday. “Trump remains as determined as ever to reward the industry that made his family rich, and those around him are as determined as ever to make America safe for predators of all kinds.
“But Trump's power is visibly diminishing, so the price of Bitcoin, which has in effect become a bet on Trumpism, has plunged,” he added.
Krugman's argument of a 'Trump trade' collapse
Krugman, who has made no secret of his contempt for cryptocurrencies (or for Trump and Trumpism), argues their rise is inextricably linked with the Trump administration's raft of friendly policies and actions toward crypto investors and exchanges. That includes calling for the creation of a government Bitcoin reserve, as well as signing an executive order in August to allow U.S. citizens to invest retirement savings in cryptocurrency, as well as other alternative assets. Last month, Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who pleaded guilty in 2023 to violating U.S. money laundering laws while CEO of the crypto exchange.
Trump himself holds an estimated $870 million in Bitcoin, making him one of the largest investors in the currency, and his family has grown its own crypto empire over the past few years. In September, American Bitcoin, a Bitcoin mining company backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., began trading on the Nasdaq and notched a $5 billion valuation in its debut. A Fortune analysis published in March found Trump's crypto holdings made up about $3 billion of his net worth.
Trump's broader policy moves have been correlated with past crypto selloffs, including last month, when a crash coincided with the president weating an additional 100% tariff on China.
But lately, Krugman noted, Trump's partisan influence has wavered, evidenced by near-unanimous bipartisan support for the release of the Epstein files, as well as waning Republican approval for the president's handling of the economy following growing concern over a “K-shaped economy.” That's on top of blowout Democratic victories at the polls, including the election of democratic socialist mayors in New York and Seattle.
In Krugman's eyes, these election defeats and increased scrutiny of Trump's handling of the economy loosen Republicans' willingness to show “lockstep obedience” with the president. He cites blogger and journalist Josh Marshall, who has posited that “power is unitary,” or that weakness in any part of the president's image translates to an overall perception of weakness, which extends to his influence in the crypto sector.
“A weakened Trump is less able to work his will on all fronts, including his efforts to promote crypto,” Krugman said.
To be sure, Krugman may be generous in how much credit he gives Trump for his control over cryptocurrency, which operates in its own environment, only adjacent to whomever holds political power. White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the Trump administration is implementing policies meant to help cryptocurrency prosper and rebuked the idea that non-policy factors in Trump's presidency would have the ability to move the price of Bitcoin.
“Only a moron would ignore these policies and attribute price fluctuations for a privately traded cryptocurrency to noneconomic matters concerning the president,” Desai told Fortune in a statement.