随着12月假日季来临，投资者有充分理由感到振奋：各项宏观数据似乎正完美配合，推动美联储在年底最后一次会议上降息。一向预测准确的芝商所（CME）FedWatch利率期货指数显示，目前降息至3.5%的概率高达85%。
高盛（Goldman Sachs）在致客户报告中总结了增强投资者信心的数据，认为美联储即将开启新一轮货币宽松（此举通常利好股市）。报告标题为《就业增长放缓和通胀回落》。
当然，支持就业市场和保持低通胀是美联储的两大主要目标。因此，如果美联储认为通胀已受控而就业呈现疲态，那么降息就非常有可能。瑞银（UBS）的报告预测，美联储将在“未来六个月内降息数次”。
这种预期解释了为何尽管科技股负面消息不断，股市仍连续四个交易日上涨。
因市场担忧人工智能存在泡沫，英伟达（Nvidia）上月股价下跌近6%。汇丰银行（HSBC）上周早些时候发布了一份直言不讳的研究报告，称英伟达最重要的客户之一OpenAI需要再获得2070亿美元资金才能维持运营至2030年。
迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的比特币储备公司Strategy上月股价暴跌40%，因加密货币价格暴跌严重冲击其商业模式。据《金融时报》报道，该公司当前市值已低于其持有的比特币价值。
然而，摩根大通（JPMorgan）指出，散户投资者似乎并未理会这两家公司的个别问题。分析师阿伦·贾恩（Arun Jain）及其同事称，上周散户净买入股票58亿美元，较前一周仅43亿美元的净买入额出现反弹。
他们向客户表示：“上周散户情绪迅速转变——从周五的极度悲观（三个多月来首个净卖出日，处于第8百分位），转变为周一的极度亢奋（五个月来最大买入日，处于第92百分位）。”
晨星（MorningStar）数据显示，过去12个月企业股票回购规模达1万亿美元，这也为市场提供了支撑。
综上所述，在美联储定于12月9日至10日举行的下次议息会议之前，标普500指数似乎正蓄势再次尝试收复历史高点，这并不令人意外。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
随着12月假日季来临，投资者有充分理由感到振奋：各项宏观数据似乎正完美配合，推动美联储在年底最后一次会议上降息。一向预测准确的芝商所（CME）FedWatch利率期货指数显示，目前降息至3.5%的概率高达85%。
高盛（Goldman Sachs）在致客户报告中总结了增强投资者信心的数据，认为美联储即将开启新一轮货币宽松（此举通常利好股市）。报告标题为《就业增长放缓和通胀回落》。
当然，支持就业市场和保持低通胀是美联储的两大主要目标。因此，如果美联储认为通胀已受控而就业呈现疲态，那么降息就非常有可能。瑞银（UBS）的报告预测，美联储将在“未来六个月内降息数次”。
这种预期解释了为何尽管科技股负面消息不断，股市仍连续四个交易日上涨。
因市场担忧人工智能存在泡沫，英伟达（Nvidia）上月股价下跌近6%。汇丰银行（HSBC）上周早些时候发布了一份直言不讳的研究报告，称英伟达最重要的客户之一OpenAI需要再获得2070亿美元资金才能维持运营至2030年。
迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的比特币储备公司Strategy上月股价暴跌40%，因加密货币价格暴跌严重冲击其商业模式。据《金融时报》报道，该公司当前市值已低于其持有的比特币价值。
然而，摩根大通（JPMorgan）指出，散户投资者似乎并未理会这两家公司的个别问题。分析师阿伦·贾恩（Arun Jain）及其同事称，上周散户净买入股票58亿美元，较前一周仅43亿美元的净买入额出现反弹。
他们向客户表示：“上周散户情绪迅速转变——从周五的极度悲观（三个多月来首个净卖出日，处于第8百分位），转变为周一的极度亢奋（五个月来最大买入日，处于第92百分位）。”
晨星（MorningStar）数据显示，过去12个月企业股票回购规模达1万亿美元，这也为市场提供了支撑。
综上所述，在美联储定于12月9日至10日举行的下次议息会议之前，标普500指数似乎正蓄势再次尝试收复历史高点，这并不令人意外。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
As we head into the December holiday season, investors have good reasons to be jolly: The macro data appears to be lining up perfectly to push the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in its final meeting of the year. The rarely wrong CME FedWatch futures index currently favors the chance of a cut to 3.5% at 85%.
The data fuelling investors' confidence that the Fed is about to deliver a new round of cheaper money (a move which generally bodes well for stocks) was summed up by Goldman Sachs in a note to clients this morning titled, 'Weaker Job Growth and Lower Inflation.'
Supporting the job market and keeping inflation low are the Fed's two main goals, of course. So if the Fed believes that inflation is under control but employment looks weak, then a cut is very much on the cards. A note from UBS this morning predicted the Fed will cut "a couple of times over the next six months."
That scenario explains why stocks have risen for four straight sessions despite a dump of negative news about tech stocks:
Nvidia is down nearly 6% this month on fears that AI is a bubble. HSBC published a brutal research note earlier this week arguing that OpenAI---one of Nvidia's most important customers---will need another $207 billion in funding to survive through 2030.
Strategy, Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury company, is down 40% this month as the collapse in the price of cryptocurrency severely challenges his business model. Saylor's company is now worth less than the Bitcoin it holds, according to the Financial Times.
Retail investors, however, appear to be ignoring the idiosyncratic problems of those two companies, according to JPMorgan. They net purchased $5.8 billion in stocks this week, a reversal from the previous week when net buying was just $4.3 billion, according to Arun Jain and his colleagues.
"Retail sentiment quickly shifted this week---from deeply negative on Friday (first net selling day in more than 3 months, 8%ile), to exhilarated on Monday (largest buying day in 5 months, 92%ile)," they told clients.
Also helping is the fact that companies have made $1 trillion in stock buybacks over the last 12 months, according to MorningStar.
Put all that together and it's no surprise that the S&P appears poised to make a new attempt to regain its all-time high prior to the next rate-setting meeting at the Fed, scheduled for December 9 and 10.