• 鉴于抵押贷款利率持续高企且短期内似乎不太可能大幅下降，房地产市场前景正迅速恶化。穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）首席经济学家马克·扎蒂表示，他认为“红色警报”对房地产市场更为贴切，而就在几周前他才发出过“黄色警报”。他警告称，除非抵押贷款利率大幅下降，否则房屋销量、房屋建筑活动和房价都将大幅下降。
穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·扎蒂表示，房地产市场正变得如此疲软，很可能会严重拖累整体经济增长。
他上周在社交平台X发布的一系列帖子中指出，就在几周前他才对房地产市场发出过“黄色警报”，但鉴于前景已然恶化，现在他认为“红色警报”更为贴切。
扎蒂警告称：“除非抵押贷款利率很快从当前接近7%的水平大幅下降，否则房屋销量、房屋建筑活动，甚至房价都将大幅下降。然而，这种情况似乎不太可能发生。”
5月份现房销量意外上升，但仍创下了自2009年以来任何5月份的最慢销售速度，这进一步证明春季这个通常的销售旺季已然惨淡收场。
与此同时，5月份新建单户住宅销量环比暴跌13.7%，而6月份单户住宅新屋开工量则下降4.6%，建筑许可发放量也有所下降。
扎蒂表示：“房屋销售已经异常低迷，但此前提供利率补贴的建筑商一直在支撑销售数据。他们现在也放弃了这种做法。这（补贴）成本实在太高了。一个明显的迹象是，许多建筑商正在推迟从土地银行购买土地。新房销量、开工量和完工量很快就会下降。”
他补充说，房价此前也一直保持坚挺，但现在正趋于横盘，而随着接近7%的抵押贷款利率抑制需求，房价预计将会下跌。
事实上，最新的Case-Shiller房价报告显示，4月份20城房价指数环比下跌0.3%，跌幅大于3月份向下修正后的0.2%。
而美国房屋建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的最新房地产市场指数调查显示，7月份有38%的建筑商下调了房价，高于6月的37%、5月的34%和4月的29%。
供应增加也给房价带来了更大的下行压力。房屋挂牌量持续攀升，因为即使是那些锁定了疫情前低房贷利率的业主，最终也需要出售这些房产，并以更高的利率购买新居。
扎蒂表示：“考虑到他们的人口结构和就业状况，锁定低利率的房主必须搬家。他们也只能在这些需求上迁就（或拖延）这么久。”
市场状况如此冷淡，以至于许多挂牌出售房屋的业主在找不到买家愿意接受其报价的情况下，正将房屋撤出市场。
根据房地产网站Realtor.com本月的一份报告，截至5月份，年内房屋撤牌量增长了35%，同比增长47%，分别超过了活跃挂牌量28.4%和31.5%的增幅。
对扎蒂来说，这一切对整体经济而言是个坏消息。当前经济已然感受到总统唐纳德·特朗普关税政策带来的压力。
他表示：“因此，房地产市场将很快成为阻碍整体经济增长的主要因素，这使得人们愈发担忧今年晚些时候和明年年初的经济前景。”
花旗研究（Citi Research）的分析师在5月份也发出了类似的警告，当时他们指出，已于2月去世的经济学家埃德·利默在2007年曾发表过一篇著名论文，称住宅投资是预示经济衰退最有力的领先指标。
花旗指出，在需求疲软的情况下，单户住宅建筑许可发放量减少，而市场上房屋的有效供应量却在增加。现房售价中位数也出现月度环比下跌趋势。
花旗表示：“住宅固定投资是经济中对利率最敏感的部门，现在它正发出信号：7%左右的抵押贷款利率过高，难以维持经济的持续增长。”（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
• 鉴于抵押贷款利率持续高企且短期内似乎不太可能大幅下降，房地产市场前景正迅速恶化。穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）首席经济学家马克·扎蒂表示，他认为“红色警报”对房地产市场更为贴切，而就在几周前他才发出过“黄色警报”。他警告称，除非抵押贷款利率大幅下降，否则房屋销量、房屋建筑活动和房价都将大幅下降。
穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·扎蒂表示，房地产市场正变得如此疲软，很可能会严重拖累整体经济增长。
他上周在社交平台X发布的一系列帖子中指出，就在几周前他才对房地产市场发出过“黄色警报”，但鉴于前景已然恶化，现在他认为“红色警报”更为贴切。
扎蒂警告称：“除非抵押贷款利率很快从当前接近7%的水平大幅下降，否则房屋销量、房屋建筑活动，甚至房价都将大幅下降。然而，这种情况似乎不太可能发生。”
5月份现房销量意外上升，但仍创下了自2009年以来任何5月份的最慢销售速度，这进一步证明春季这个通常的销售旺季已然惨淡收场。
与此同时，5月份新建单户住宅销量环比暴跌13.7%，而6月份单户住宅新屋开工量则下降4.6%，建筑许可发放量也有所下降。
扎蒂表示：“房屋销售已经异常低迷，但此前提供利率补贴的建筑商一直在支撑销售数据。他们现在也放弃了这种做法。这（补贴）成本实在太高了。一个明显的迹象是，许多建筑商正在推迟从土地银行购买土地。新房销量、开工量和完工量很快就会下降。”
他补充说，房价此前也一直保持坚挺，但现在正趋于横盘，而随着接近7%的抵押贷款利率抑制需求，房价预计将会下跌。
事实上，最新的Case-Shiller房价报告显示，4月份20城房价指数环比下跌0.3%，跌幅大于3月份向下修正后的0.2%。
而美国房屋建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的最新房地产市场指数调查显示，7月份有38%的建筑商下调了房价，高于6月的37%、5月的34%和4月的29%。
供应增加也给房价带来了更大的下行压力。房屋挂牌量持续攀升，因为即使是那些锁定了疫情前低房贷利率的业主，最终也需要出售这些房产，并以更高的利率购买新居。
扎蒂表示：“考虑到他们的人口结构和就业状况，锁定低利率的房主必须搬家。他们也只能在这些需求上迁就（或拖延）这么久。”
市场状况如此冷淡，以至于许多挂牌出售房屋的业主在找不到买家愿意接受其报价的情况下，正将房屋撤出市场。
根据房地产网站Realtor.com本月的一份报告，截至5月份，年内房屋撤牌量增长了35%，同比增长47%，分别超过了活跃挂牌量28.4%和31.5%的增幅。
对扎蒂来说，这一切对整体经济而言是个坏消息。当前经济已然感受到总统唐纳德·特朗普关税政策带来的压力。
他表示：“因此，房地产市场将很快成为阻碍整体经济增长的主要因素，这使得人们愈发担忧今年晚些时候和明年年初的经济前景。”
花旗研究（Citi Research）的分析师在5月份也发出了类似的警告，当时他们指出，已于2月去世的经济学家埃德·利默在2007年曾发表过一篇著名论文，称住宅投资是预示经济衰退最有力的领先指标。
花旗指出，在需求疲软的情况下，单户住宅建筑许可发放量减少，而市场上房屋的有效供应量却在增加。现房售价中位数也出现月度环比下跌趋势。
花旗表示：“住宅固定投资是经济中对利率最敏感的部门，现在它正发出信号：7%左右的抵押贷款利率过高，难以维持经济的持续增长。”（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
• With mortgage rates remaining high and looking unlikely to drop much anytime soon, the housing market outlook is quickly deteriorating. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said he thinks a “red flare” is more appropriate for housing, just weeks after he sent off a “yellow flare.” Unless mortgage rates come down substantially, home sales, homebuilding and prices will slump, he warned.
The housing market is getting so weak that it’s poised to become a significant drag on overall economic growth, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.
In a series of posts on X last week, he noted that he sent off a “yellow flare” on the housing market just a few weeks ago but now thinks a “red flare” is more appropriate as the outlook is already deteriorating.
“Home sales, homebuilding, and even house prices are set to slump unless mortgage rates decline materially from their current near 7% soon,” Zandi warned. “That, however, seems unlikely.”
Existing home sales unexpectedly rose in May, but still marked the slowest sales pace for any May since 2009, further evidence that the typically busy spring selling season has been a bust.
Meanwhile, sales of new single-family homes sank 13.7% in May from the prior month, and single-family housing starts dropped 4.6% in June, with permits down as well.
“Home sales are already uber depressed, but homebuilders providing rate buydowns had been propping sales up,” Zandi said. “They are giving up. It’s simply too expensive. A big tell is that many builders are delaying their land purchases from the land banks. New home sales, starts, and completions will soon fall.”
He added that home prices had also held up well, but are now going sideways and set to turn lower as near-7% mortgage rates crush demand.
In fact, the latest Case-Shiller home price report showed a 0.3% monthly fall in the 20-city index in April, steeper than March’s downwardly revised 0.2% dip.
And the latest Housing Market Index survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed 38% of builders cut prices in July, up from 37% in June, 34% in May, and 29% in April.
Putting more downward pressure on prices is increased supply. Home listings have been climbing, as even homeowners with low, pre-pandemic mortgage rates eventually need to put those properties up for sale and buy new homes at higher rates.
“Given their demographic and job situations, locked-in homeowners must move,” Zandi added. “They can only work around these needs for so long.”
Conditions are so tepid that many homeowners who listed their properties are taking them off the market after failing to find a buyer at the price they were offering.
Delistings are up 35% year to date and 47% year over year in May, outpacing active listing growth of 28.4% and 31.5%, respectively, according to a Realtor.com report this month.
For Zandi, that all adds up to bad news for the overall economy, which is already feeling strains from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“Housing will thus soon be a full-blown headwind to broader economic growth, adding to the growing list of reasons to be worried about the economy’s prospects later this year and early next,” he said.
Analysts at Citi Research issued a similar warning in May, when they pointed out that the economist Ed Leamer, who passed away in February, famously published a paper in 2007 that said residential investment is the best leading indicator of an oncoming recession.
Citi pointed to fewer permits for single-family-home construction and an increase in the effective supply of homes on the market amid weak demand. Median home prices of existing homes were also falling on a monthly basis.
“Residential fixed investment is the most interest rate sensitive sector in the economy and is now signaling that mortgage rates around 7% are too high to sustain an expansion,” Citi said.