• 根据富国银行（Wells Fargo）近期发布的报告，对近期经济数据的深入分析发现，服务类可自由支配支出出现下滑。该报告指出，在历史上，这一指标通常会在经济衰退期间或衰退刚终结时出现下降。这与华尔街普遍认为的“关税对经济的影响未及担忧程度”的说法相悖。
近期经济数据缓解了市场担忧（唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策尚未引发经济下滑或通胀飙升），但富国银行对此抱有更深的疑虑。
在周二的一份报告中，经济学家蒂姆·昆兰（Tim Quinlan）和香农·格林（Shannon Grein）驳斥了所谓“关税影响温和”的“错误观点”，指出消费者支出数据实际上已较此前乐观读数大幅下调。
他们写道：“消费者支出完全未受关税突然实施的影响，这一说法从来都缺乏可信度。国内生产总值增长初步预估维持了这种假象：第一季度经通胀调整后的消费者支出增速为1.8%（按年率计算）；而第三轮修正后的数据显示，实际增速仅为0.5%，不到最初预估的三分之一。”
事实上，服务支出数据的偏差更为明显：修正后增速仅为0.6%，远低于初始估算的2.4%。
报告称，这种趋势延续至二季度，构成了一个被普遍忽视的明确警示信号，即家庭确实在缩减可自由支配支出。
尽管商品类可自由支配支出保持平稳，但截至5月，服务支出仍同比下降0.3%。
昆兰和格林警告称：“诚然，这一降幅较为温和，但令人担忧的是，60多年来，这一指标仅在衰退期间或衰退刚终结时出现过下降。”
他们指出，食品服务和娱乐服务支出（包括健身房会员费和流媒体订阅等）仅略有增长。
与此同时，交通支出下降1.1%，其中汽车维修、出租车和网约车、航空旅行等领域支出均出现下滑，而航空旅行支出降幅最大，达4.7%。
富国银行表示：“家庭推迟汽车维修、舍弃使用优步、减少或取消航空旅行，这些事实表明家庭预算已然趋紧。”
即使商品支出有所增加，其增长力度也似乎不如表面那般强劲，因为汽车和家电等类别虽曾出现大幅增长，但这种增长势头未能持续，原因在于消费者赶在特朗普关税推高价格前抢购商品，将购买时间提前到今年早些时候。
此外，经济学家们指出，温和的通胀数据也可能具有误导性。许多企业在关税实施前囤积了额外库存，目前仍能动用这些库存，从而暂时避免将关税成本转嫁给消费者。
他们还补充道，特朗普的关税政策摇摆不定，也可能导致成本转嫁的时间推迟，甚至会促使部分企业自行承担成本，尤其是当关税被视作临时谈判手段时。
“与关税相关的另一个看似过于美好的情况是，整体通胀指标尚未显现令人担忧的通胀冲击。”昆兰和格林称。
华尔街其他机构虽未如此悲观，但也认为关税对经济构成压力。凯投宏观（Capital Economics）预计关税将导致经济放缓，不过不会引发衰退，预测今年国内生产总值将增长1.6%，明年增长1.5%。
摩根大通（JPMorgan）预计第三季度增长1%，与上半年增速基本持平，上半年第一季度出现收缩，第二季度出现反弹。
正值市场就经济前景及美联储是否应尽早而非推迟恢复降息展开激烈辩论之际，富国银行持相反观点。
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）以就业数据疲软为依据，主张本月降息。然而，其他政策制定者倾向于等待，称经济表现韧性十足，关税的影响尚未完全体现在通胀数据中。
上周五发布的零售销售报告显示，上月销售额增幅超出预期，且增长范围广泛，不过该数据主要聚焦于商品消费支出领域。
与此同时，最新公布的消费者价格指数再次低于预期，但仍显示关税正对通胀构成上行压力，同时需求疲软可能制约企业进一步提价的能力。
“消费者支出远不如我们此前预期的那样强劲，甚至不如最初报告的那样，”富国银行表示。“我们一直认为，稳定的劳动力市场能够抵消关税引发的通胀，这一点可能仍然成立，从而避免经济陷入更严重的衰退。但关税实施后，消费者行为已然发生转变。”（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
• 根据富国银行（Wells Fargo）近期发布的报告，对近期经济数据的深入分析发现，服务类可自由支配支出出现下滑。该报告指出，在历史上，这一指标通常会在经济衰退期间或衰退刚终结时出现下降。这与华尔街普遍认为的“关税对经济的影响未及担忧程度”的说法相悖。
近期经济数据缓解了市场担忧（唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策尚未引发经济下滑或通胀飙升），但富国银行对此抱有更深的疑虑。
在周二的一份报告中，经济学家蒂姆·昆兰（Tim Quinlan）和香农·格林（Shannon Grein）驳斥了所谓“关税影响温和”的“错误观点”，指出消费者支出数据实际上已较此前乐观读数大幅下调。
他们写道：“消费者支出完全未受关税突然实施的影响，这一说法从来都缺乏可信度。国内生产总值增长初步预估维持了这种假象：第一季度经通胀调整后的消费者支出增速为1.8%（按年率计算）；而第三轮修正后的数据显示，实际增速仅为0.5%，不到最初预估的三分之一。”
事实上，服务支出数据的偏差更为明显：修正后增速仅为0.6%，远低于初始估算的2.4%。
报告称，这种趋势延续至二季度，构成了一个被普遍忽视的明确警示信号，即家庭确实在缩减可自由支配支出。
尽管商品类可自由支配支出保持平稳，但截至5月，服务支出仍同比下降0.3%。
昆兰和格林警告称：“诚然，这一降幅较为温和，但令人担忧的是，60多年来，这一指标仅在衰退期间或衰退刚终结时出现过下降。”
他们指出，食品服务和娱乐服务支出（包括健身房会员费和流媒体订阅等）仅略有增长。
与此同时，交通支出下降1.1%，其中汽车维修、出租车和网约车、航空旅行等领域支出均出现下滑，而航空旅行支出降幅最大，达4.7%。
富国银行表示：“家庭推迟汽车维修、舍弃使用优步、减少或取消航空旅行，这些事实表明家庭预算已然趋紧。”
即使商品支出有所增加，其增长力度也似乎不如表面那般强劲，因为汽车和家电等类别虽曾出现大幅增长，但这种增长势头未能持续，原因在于消费者赶在特朗普关税推高价格前抢购商品，将购买时间提前到今年早些时候。
此外，经济学家们指出，温和的通胀数据也可能具有误导性。许多企业在关税实施前囤积了额外库存，目前仍能动用这些库存，从而暂时避免将关税成本转嫁给消费者。
他们还补充道，特朗普的关税政策摇摆不定，也可能导致成本转嫁的时间推迟，甚至会促使部分企业自行承担成本，尤其是当关税被视作临时谈判手段时。
“与关税相关的另一个看似过于美好的情况是，整体通胀指标尚未显现令人担忧的通胀冲击。”昆兰和格林称。
华尔街其他机构虽未如此悲观，但也认为关税对经济构成压力。凯投宏观（Capital Economics）预计关税将导致经济放缓，不过不会引发衰退，预测今年国内生产总值将增长1.6%，明年增长1.5%。
摩根大通（JPMorgan）预计第三季度增长1%，与上半年增速基本持平，上半年第一季度出现收缩，第二季度出现反弹。
正值市场就经济前景及美联储是否应尽早而非推迟恢复降息展开激烈辩论之际，富国银行持相反观点。
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）以就业数据疲软为依据，主张本月降息。然而，其他政策制定者倾向于等待，称经济表现韧性十足，关税的影响尚未完全体现在通胀数据中。
上周五发布的零售销售报告显示，上月销售额增幅超出预期，且增长范围广泛，不过该数据主要聚焦于商品消费支出领域。
与此同时，最新公布的消费者价格指数再次低于预期，但仍显示关税正对通胀构成上行压力，同时需求疲软可能制约企业进一步提价的能力。
“消费者支出远不如我们此前预期的那样强劲，甚至不如最初报告的那样，”富国银行表示。“我们一直认为，稳定的劳动力市场能够抵消关税引发的通胀，这一点可能仍然成立，从而避免经济陷入更严重的衰退。但关税实施后，消费者行为已然发生转变。”（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
• A closer look at recent economic data reveals a decline in discretionary spending on services, according to a recent note from Wells Fargo, which said the metric historically has fallen during or immediately after recessions. That belies the overall narrative on Wall Street that tariffs have not impacted the economy as much as feared.
Recent economic data have eased fears that President Donald Trump’s tariffs aren’t yet causing a downturn or spike in inflation, but Wells Fargo is more skeptical.
In a note on Tuesday, economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein dismissed the “false narrative” that tariffs were having a benign impact, pointing out that consumer spending data has actually been revised much lower from more upbeat earlier readings.
“It never quite rang true that consumer spending was completely unfazed by the sudden implementation of tariffs,” they wrote. “This mirage was sustained by initial estimates of GDP growth that pegged the pace of inflation-adjusted Q1 consumer spending at 1.8% (annualized); that’s three-times faster than what it turned out to be in the third estimate—just 0.5%.”
In fact, data on services spending was even more skewed to the upside, as revisions put growth at just 0.6%, down from an initial print of 2.4%.
Those trends continued into the second quarter and constitute a clear warning sign largely being overlooked, namely that households are indeed reducing their discretionary spending, according to the note.
While discretionary spending on goods has held up, spending on services is down 0.3% through May on a year-over-year basis.
“That is admittedly a modest decline, but what makes it scary is that in 60+ years, this measure has only declined either during or immediately after recessions,” Quinlan and Grein warned.
They pointed out that spending on food services and recreational services, which includes things like gym memberships and streaming subscriptions, were barely higher.
Meanwhile, transportation spending was down 1.1%, led by declines in auto maintenance, taxis and ride-sharing, and air travel, which had the steepest drop at 4.7%.
“The fact that households are putting off auto repair, not taking an Uber and cutting back or eliminating air travel points to stretched household budgets,” Wells Fargo said.
Even increases in spending on goods seem weaker than they appear, as categories like cars and appliances saw big surges that haven’t been sustained. That’s because consumers rushed to buy items before Trump’s tariffs hiked prices, pulling forward purchases to earlier in the year.
In addition, the muted inflation data appears misleading too, the economists wrote. Many businesses stockpiled extra inventory ahead of tariffs and have been able to draw on those supplies, allowing them to avoid passing on tariffs costs to consumers for now.
Trump’s on-again, off-again approach to tariffs may also be delaying those pass-throughs and even encouraging some businesses to eat the costs, especially if tariffs are seen as a temporary negotiation tactic, they added.
“Another too-good-to-be-true development with respect to tariffs is how broad measures of inflation have yet to register a worrying inflationary shock,” Quinlan and Grein said.
Others on Wall Street are less downbeat but still see tariffs weighing on the economy. Capital Economics sees tariffs causing a slowdown but not a recession, forecasting GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.5% next year.
JPMorgan expects growth of 1% in the third quarter, about steady with gains in the first half of the year, which saw a contraction in Q1 and a rebound in Q2.
Wells Fargo’s more contrarian view comes amid a sharp debate over the economic outlook and whether the Federal Reserve should resume rate cuts sooner rather than later.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller has pointed to weak job readings in arguing for a rate cut this month. But other policymakers prefer to wait, saying the economy has been resilient while tariffs have yet to full show up in the inflation data.
The retail sales report released on Friday showed a bigger-than-expected jump last month with broad gains. But that dataset mostly covers spending on goods.
Meanwhile, the latest consumer price index came in below expectations again, but still showed signs that tariffs were putting upward pressure on inflation as well as indications that weak demand may be limiting the ability of businesses to hike prices even higher.
“Consumer spending is simply not as sturdy as we previously thought it was or even as it was first reported to be,” Wells Fargo said. “We’ve long held the view that a stable labor market can offset tariff-induced inflation, and that may still be true and would prevent more of a recessionary impulse from ensuing. But consumers have shifted their behavior in the wake of tariffs.”