美国8月新房销售意外飙升至2022年初以来的最快水平，这一增长可能得益于建筑商大幅降价及推出的各类优惠活动。
上周三发布的政府报告显示，新独栋住宅销量增长20.5%，年化销量达80万套，呈现全面增长态势。该增速超出彭博社经济学家调查中的所有预期值。
需求激增显著缓解了市场上新房大量过剩的状况。上月待售新房库存降至49万套，为今年以来的最低水平。
数据显示，美国建筑商正通过激进销售优惠策略成功吸引持观望态度的购房者入市。本月，全美住房建筑商协会（NAHB）与富国银行（Wells Fargo）联合开展的调查显示，39%的建筑商选择降价销售，这一比例创疫情以来的新高。
彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）分析师德鲁·雷丁（Drew Reading）在一份报告中指出，住宅建筑商莱纳公司（Lennar Corp.）近期推出的销售优惠相当于其平均售价的14.3%，远超常规的5%至6%，翻了一倍有余。
新房销售数据反映的是签约情况，而签约通常发生在交易完成前约一个月。该数据捕捉到近期抵押贷款利率开始下滑的趋势，当前抵押贷款利率已降至一年来的最低水平。
“借贷成本下降推动8月新房销售激增，鉴于此后抵押贷款利率持续走低，未来数月销量可能会进一步攀升。”凯投宏观（Capital Economics）北美经济学家托马斯·瑞安（Thomas Ryan）在报告中表示。
然而，其他经济学家对新房销量上涨持怀疑态度，潘森宏观经济研究公司（Pantheon Macroeconomics）的奥利弗·艾伦（Oliver Allen）称这一涨幅“难以置信”。艾伦与Santander US Capital Markets首席经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利（Stephen Stanley）均预计，未来数月新房销售增速将会回落。
尽管8月数据有所好转，但美国住宅建筑商仍面临持续的购房负担能力问题。许多购房者仍无法承担当前的房价与融资成本，且对美国劳动力市场的担忧日益加剧。
尽管建筑商大规模推出销售优惠活动，但新房房价中位数仍实现了今年以来的第二次同比上涨，升至41.35万美元。这一上涨得益于百万美元以上高价住宅需求增加，而低价住宅的交易占比有所下降。
全美范围内，作为最大住房销售区域的南部地区销量攀升至2021年3月以来的最高水平，其余三大区域的销量也出现上涨。
相较于成屋销量（以合同完成为统计节点），新房销量被视作更能及时反映房地产市场动态的指标。不过，新房销量的月度波动较大。美国政府报告显示，其销售变化幅度在下降1.3%至增长42.3%区间内的置信度达90%。 （*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
美国8月新房销售意外飙升至2022年初以来的最快水平，这一增长可能得益于建筑商大幅降价及推出的各类优惠活动。
上周三发布的政府报告显示，新独栋住宅销量增长20.5%，年化销量达80万套，呈现全面增长态势。该增速超出彭博社经济学家调查中的所有预期值。
需求激增显著缓解了市场上新房大量过剩的状况。上月待售新房库存降至49万套，为今年以来的最低水平。
数据显示，美国建筑商正通过激进销售优惠策略成功吸引持观望态度的购房者入市。本月，全美住房建筑商协会（NAHB）与富国银行（Wells Fargo）联合开展的调查显示，39%的建筑商选择降价销售，这一比例创疫情以来的新高。
彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）分析师德鲁·雷丁（Drew Reading）在一份报告中指出，住宅建筑商莱纳公司（Lennar Corp.）近期推出的销售优惠相当于其平均售价的14.3%，远超常规的5%至6%，翻了一倍有余。
新房销售数据反映的是签约情况，而签约通常发生在交易完成前约一个月。该数据捕捉到近期抵押贷款利率开始下滑的趋势，当前抵押贷款利率已降至一年来的最低水平。
“借贷成本下降推动8月新房销售激增，鉴于此后抵押贷款利率持续走低，未来数月销量可能会进一步攀升。”凯投宏观（Capital Economics）北美经济学家托马斯·瑞安（Thomas Ryan）在报告中表示。
然而，其他经济学家对新房销量上涨持怀疑态度，潘森宏观经济研究公司（Pantheon Macroeconomics）的奥利弗·艾伦（Oliver Allen）称这一涨幅“难以置信”。艾伦与Santander US Capital Markets首席经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利（Stephen Stanley）均预计，未来数月新房销售增速将会回落。
尽管8月数据有所好转，但美国住宅建筑商仍面临持续的购房负担能力问题。许多购房者仍无法承担当前的房价与融资成本，且对美国劳动力市场的担忧日益加剧。
尽管建筑商大规模推出销售优惠活动，但新房房价中位数仍实现了今年以来的第二次同比上涨，升至41.35万美元。这一上涨得益于百万美元以上高价住宅需求增加，而低价住宅的交易占比有所下降。
全美范围内，作为最大住房销售区域的南部地区销量攀升至2021年3月以来的最高水平，其余三大区域的销量也出现上涨。
相较于成屋销量（以合同完成为统计节点），新房销量被视作更能及时反映房地产市场动态的指标。不过，新房销量的月度波动较大。美国政府报告显示，其销售变化幅度在下降1.3%至增长42.3%区间内的置信度达90%。 （*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
New-home sales in the US unexpectedly surged in August to the fastest pace since early 2022, likely lifted by builders’ rampant price cuts and sales incentives.
Sales of new single-family homes increased 20.5% to a 800,000 annualized rate in a broad advance, according to a government report issued Wednesday. The pace exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The surge in demand helped put a significant dent in what’s been a vast oversupply of new homes on the market. Last month, the inventory of new homes for sale decreased to 490,000 units, the lowest this year.
The data suggest US homebuilders are successfully luring buyers off the sidelines with aggressive sales incentives. This month, 39% of builders reported cutting prices in a survey by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo, a post-pandemic high.
Homebuilder Lennar Corp. recently reported offering sales incentives equal to 14.3% of its average sale price, more than double its usual 5% or 6%, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading said in a note.
New home sales reflect contract signings, which likely take place roughly a month before the transaction is complete. The figures capture the start of a recent slide in mortgage rates, that now stand at the lowest level in a year.
“Lower borrowing costs supported a surge in new home sales in August, and could drive further increases in the coming months, given the continued decline in mortgage rates since then,” Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
However, other economists were skeptical of the advance, which Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics described as “implausible.” Allen and Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets, both expect the sales pace to drop in the coming months.
Despite the improved August numbers, US homebuilders are contending with lingering affordability concerns. Many buyers still can’t afford today’s prices and financing costs, and are increasingly nervous about the nation’s labor market.
The median sales price increased for just the second time this year on annual basis, despite builders’ wide use of sales incentives. It rose to $413,500, bolstered by demand for homes over $1 million, while a smaller share of transactions are taking place at the lower end of the price spectrum.
Around the US, sales in the South, the country’s biggest home-selling region, advanced to the highest since March 2021. Sales also climbed in the other three US regions.
New-home sales are seen as a more timely measurement than purchases of existing homes, which are calculated when contracts close. However, the data are volatile on a monthly basis. The government report showed 90% confidence that the change in new-home sales ranged from a 1.3% decline to a 42.3% gain.