感恩节假期前夕，加密货币交易者尚可庆幸比特币价格正大幅反弹，收复失地。然而假期结束后，比特币在周一再度暴跌。如今，在最大的预测市场之一Kalshi上，押注者已将比特币在年底前突破10万美元的概率大幅下调——目前约为24%，而假期开始时这一概率为60%。
Kalshi、Polymarket和Robinhood等预测市场论坛，被视为预测各类未来事件的精准风向标，尽管它们发布的概率始终处于波动之中。
在加密货币方面，Kalshi上的其他押注也反映出对该领域的看跌预期。例如，63%的押注者预测比特币今年将跌破8万美元。甚至对于这一主要加密货币的长期预测也显得悲观，82%的押注者预计比特币在2027年前不会突破20万美元。
Kalshi及其竞争对手Polymarket是预测市场的主要参与者。预测市场在去年美国总统大选前夕开始流行，当时Kalshi预测特朗普获胜，与许多备受推崇的民调结果相反。自那以后，Polymarket正寻求高达150亿美元的估值，而Kalshi的估值则高达110亿美元。
截至周一下午，比特币价格在过去24小时内下跌约8%，至当前约84,000美元。自大约两个月前创下约126,000美元的高点以来，这一最初的加密货币已下跌约33%。
另外两种主要加密货币以太坊和Solana也在12月的第一天遭遇重挫。自昨日以来，前者下跌约10%至当前2,752美元，后者下跌约9%至当前125美元。
周一，美国加密货币交易者一觉醒来便迎来地球另一端的坏消息：日本两年期国债收益率创下17年新高——这是一系列促使投资者采取避险立场的宏观经济信号中的最新一个。
“日本的事态发展带来了新的压力来源，”CoinShares研究主管詹姆斯·巴特菲尔（James Butterfill）表示。“日本加息的可能性正在增加，鉴于该国庞大的政府债务负担，即使小幅行动也可能破坏全球市场的稳定。”（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
感恩节假期前夕，加密货币交易者尚可庆幸比特币价格正大幅反弹，收复失地。然而假期结束后，比特币在周一再度暴跌。如今，在最大的预测市场之一Kalshi上，押注者已将比特币在年底前突破10万美元的概率大幅下调——目前约为24%，而假期开始时这一概率为60%。
Kalshi、Polymarket和Robinhood等预测市场论坛，被视为预测各类未来事件的精准风向标，尽管它们发布的概率始终处于波动之中。
在加密货币方面，Kalshi上的其他押注也反映出对该领域的看跌预期。例如，63%的押注者预测比特币今年将跌破8万美元。甚至对于这一主要加密货币的长期预测也显得悲观，82%的押注者预计比特币在2027年前不会突破20万美元。
Kalshi及其竞争对手Polymarket是预测市场的主要参与者。预测市场在去年美国总统大选前夕开始流行，当时Kalshi预测特朗普获胜，与许多备受推崇的民调结果相反。自那以后，Polymarket正寻求高达150亿美元的估值，而Kalshi的估值则高达110亿美元。
截至周一下午，比特币价格在过去24小时内下跌约8%，至当前约84,000美元。自大约两个月前创下约126,000美元的高点以来，这一最初的加密货币已下跌约33%。
另外两种主要加密货币以太坊和Solana也在12月的第一天遭遇重挫。自昨日以来，前者下跌约10%至当前2,752美元，后者下跌约9%至当前125美元。
周一，美国加密货币交易者一觉醒来便迎来地球另一端的坏消息：日本两年期国债收益率创下17年新高——这是一系列促使投资者采取避险立场的宏观经济信号中的最新一个。
“日本的事态发展带来了新的压力来源，”CoinShares研究主管詹姆斯·巴特菲尔（James Butterfill）表示。“日本加息的可能性正在增加，鉴于该国庞大的政府债务负担，即使小幅行动也可能破坏全球市场的稳定。”（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, crypto traders could give thanks that Bitcoin's price was clawing back major losses. But then Bitcoin plummeted again on Monday following the break. Now bettors on Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, have knocked down its chance of crossing $100,000 by the end of the year---giving it around a 24% chance of hitting that mark compared to 60% at the outset of the holiday.
Kalshi and other prediction market forums like Polymarket and Robinhood are viewed as highly accurate indications for a wide variety of future events, though the odds they post are constantly in flux.
When it comes to crypto, other bets on Kalshi reflect a bearish outlook for the sector. This includes 63% of bettors wagering that Bitcoin will dip below $80,000 this year. Even longer-term predictions about the major cryptocurrency are muted, as 82% of bettors predict Bitcoin will not be above $200K by 2027.
Kalshi is one of the major players in prediction markets, along with its rival, Polymarket. Prediction markets gained popularity after the run-up to last year's U.S. presidential election, when Kalshi pointed to a Trump win in contrast to many highly regarded polls. Since then, Polymarket is seeking a valuation of up to $15 billion, while Kalshi's is up to $11 billion.
The price of Bitcoin is down about 8% in the past 24 hours to its current price of roughly $84,000, as of Monday afternoon. Since its high of about $126,000 about two months ago, the original cryptocurrency is down roughly 33%.
Ethereum and Solana, the other two major cryptocurrencies, have also had a rough first day of December. Since yesterday, the former is down about 10% to its current price of $2,752, and the latter is down about 9% to its current price of $125.
On Monday, crypto traders in the U.S. woke up to bad news from the other side of the world, as Japan's two-year bond yield reached a 17-year high---the latest in a series of macroeconomic signals that have led investors to adopt a risk-off position.
"Developments in Japan added a fresh source of pressure," said James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. "The prospect of a Japanese rate hike is gathering momentum, and with the country's substantial government debt load, even modest moves can destabilize global markets."