亿万富翁投资者史蒂夫・艾斯曼警告称，若特朗普总统持续的关税立场引发全面贸易战，全球经济将陷入严峻困境。
6月17日，这位Neuberger Berman前任董事总经理在美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访中表示，若特朗普政府能够促成与被征税各国罢战息兵，那么美国经济和市场将蓬勃发展，否则，“迎接我们的或将是全球性的衰退”。艾斯曼曾成功预测2008年股市崩盘并从中获利，迈克尔・刘易斯书作《大空头》及2015年同名电影便基于其经历。
艾斯曼表示：“我认为，关税及潜在的贸易战确实是当前市场唯一的风险，这二者是彻彻底底的孪生事物，我实在无力阻止。”
特朗普反复无常的关税决策令消费者（因关税大幅削减支出）以及像艾斯曼一样将关税视为全球经济威胁的投资者感到紧张不安。美国银行上周发布的《全球基金经理调查报告》（Global Fund Manager Survey）显示，在接受调查的222位基金经理中，47%认为贸易战导致的全球衰退是市场最大的“尾部风险”。
与英国等国达成的贸易协议以及与中国的临时止戈让上述顾虑有所缓解。摩根大通研究部（JPMorgan Research）在5月底将美国和全球衰退的概率从60%下调至40%，并将其归因于特朗普削减对华关税导致的贸易紧张局势缓和。不过，美国尚未解决与欧盟的贸易问题，而截止日期为7月9日，已是迫在眉睫。
艾斯曼认为当前的贸易环境与一战爆发前的局势有相似之处，或许意指一战前数十年间为解决地区冲突而签署的一系列条约，事实上，这些条约催生了两个最终对立的庞大联盟。
他说：“没有人希望一战发生，但由于国家间存在的这些互惠条约，没想到局势竟以战争收尾。我认为没人想打贸易战，但可能性依然存在。”
不只是中国
尽管与中国的贸易谈判成为了举世瞩目的焦点，但艾斯曼认为，鉴于欧盟对法规及增值税的关切，巩固与欧洲贸易关系的进程 “更有看点”。欧盟有27个成员国，需平衡的事项多如牛毛，加剧了这一潜在贸易协议的复杂程度。
艾斯曼说：“鉴于欧盟的架构，与欧洲谈判就像试图放牧一群猫。”
特朗普声称欧盟的成立是为了“摧毁”美国，威胁要对欧盟征收50%的关税，随后又暂停了这一计划。作为谈判的一部分，美国政府试图给欧盟施压，要求其放宽科技法规，因为特朗普称这些法规阻碍了美国公司的发展。特朗普还反对增值税，认为它本质上是一种在产品供应链每个阶段累加的销售税，并将其解读为另一种贸易壁垒，称该税给试图向欧洲出口的美国企业带来了不当财务压力。
特朗普已暗示美国对协议条款仍不满意，他在6月17日对记者说：“我们在谈判，但我觉得他们目前开出的条件并不公平。”
特朗普上一任期的商务部长威尔伯・罗斯警告称，在与中国和英国成功谈判后，特朗普政府可能会在与欧盟的谈判中过于自信，继而疏远欧洲盟友。
罗斯上周对《财富》杂志说：“我担心，如果美国政府对事情的进展过于自负，就有可能高估自身优势，提出其他国家难以、甚至不可能让步的条件。”
他还表示：“虽然这并非易事，但美国的目标应该是帮助欧洲国家变强并与其保持密切关系。”（*）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
亿万富翁投资者史蒂夫・艾斯曼警告称，若特朗普总统持续的关税立场引发全面贸易战，全球经济将陷入严峻困境。
6月17日，这位Neuberger Berman前任董事总经理在美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访中表示，若特朗普政府能够促成与被征税各国罢战息兵，那么美国经济和市场将蓬勃发展，否则，“迎接我们的或将是全球性的衰退”。艾斯曼曾成功预测2008年股市崩盘并从中获利，迈克尔・刘易斯书作《大空头》及2015年同名电影便基于其经历。
艾斯曼表示：“我认为，关税及潜在的贸易战确实是当前市场唯一的风险，这二者是彻彻底底的孪生事物，我实在无力阻止。”
特朗普反复无常的关税决策令消费者（因关税大幅削减支出）以及像艾斯曼一样将关税视为全球经济威胁的投资者感到紧张不安。美国银行上周发布的《全球基金经理调查报告》（Global Fund Manager Survey）显示，在接受调查的222位基金经理中，47%认为贸易战导致的全球衰退是市场最大的“尾部风险”。
与英国等国达成的贸易协议以及与中国的临时止戈让上述顾虑有所缓解。摩根大通研究部（JPMorgan Research）在5月底将美国和全球衰退的概率从60%下调至40%，并将其归因于特朗普削减对华关税导致的贸易紧张局势缓和。不过，美国尚未解决与欧盟的贸易问题，而截止日期为7月9日，已是迫在眉睫。
艾斯曼认为当前的贸易环境与一战爆发前的局势有相似之处，或许意指一战前数十年间为解决地区冲突而签署的一系列条约，事实上，这些条约催生了两个最终对立的庞大联盟。
他说：“没有人希望一战发生，但由于国家间存在的这些互惠条约，没想到局势竟以战争收尾。我认为没人想打贸易战，但可能性依然存在。”
不只是中国
尽管与中国的贸易谈判成为了举世瞩目的焦点，但艾斯曼认为，鉴于欧盟对法规及增值税的关切，巩固与欧洲贸易关系的进程 “更有看点”。欧盟有27个成员国，需平衡的事项多如牛毛，加剧了这一潜在贸易协议的复杂程度。
艾斯曼说：“鉴于欧盟的架构，与欧洲谈判就像试图放牧一群猫。”
特朗普声称欧盟的成立是为了“摧毁”美国，威胁要对欧盟征收50%的关税，随后又暂停了这一计划。作为谈判的一部分，美国政府试图给欧盟施压，要求其放宽科技法规，因为特朗普称这些法规阻碍了美国公司的发展。特朗普还反对增值税，认为它本质上是一种在产品供应链每个阶段累加的销售税，并将其解读为另一种贸易壁垒，称该税给试图向欧洲出口的美国企业带来了不当财务压力。
特朗普已暗示美国对协议条款仍不满意，他在6月17日对记者说：“我们在谈判，但我觉得他们目前开出的条件并不公平。”
特朗普上一任期的商务部长威尔伯・罗斯警告称，在与中国和英国成功谈判后，特朗普政府可能会在与欧盟的谈判中过于自信，继而疏远欧洲盟友。
罗斯上周对《财富》杂志说：“我担心，如果美国政府对事情的进展过于自负，就有可能高估自身优势，提出其他国家难以、甚至不可能让步的条件。”
他还表示：“虽然这并非易事，但美国的目标应该是帮助欧洲国家变强并与其保持密切关系。”（*）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
Global markets will enter dire economic straits if President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff stance leads to an all-out trade war, warns billionaire investor Steve Eisman.
The former managing director of Neuberger Berman—who successfully anticipated and profited from the 2008 stock market crash, and whose profile served as the basis for Michael Lewis’ book (and later, the 2015 film) The Big Short—said in a CNBC interview on Tuesday the U.S. economy and markets will flourish if the Trump administration is able to facilitate truces with the various nations on which he has imposed tariffs. But if that doesn’t happen, “chances are, we go into a global recession.”
“The tariffs and the potential for a trade war, I think, is really the only risk to the market right now,” Eisman said. “It’s completely binary, and I really have no way of handicapping it.”
Trump’s whipsaw tariff decisions have rattled both consumers—who have sharply cut back on spending as a result of the levies—and investors, who, like Eisman, see tariffs as a threat to the global economy. A Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey published this week found 47% of the 222 fund managers surveyed said they believed a global recession as a result of a trade war was the biggest “tail risk” to markets.
Trade deals, such as with the UK and a tentative truce with China, have tempered these concerns. JPMorgan Research lowered its probability of U.S. and global recessions from 60% to 40% at the end of May, citing decreased trade tensions as a result of Trump slashing Chinese tariffs. The U.S., however, has yet to resolve its trade issues with the European Union ahead of a crucial July 9 deadline.
Eisman drew similarities between the rocky trade environment and lead-up to World War I, likely referring to a series of treaties forged in the decades before the war designed to settle regional skirmishes that, in reality, created two massive, and eventually opposing, alliances.
“Nobody wanted World War I, and yet, because of all the reciprocal treaties that existed between countries, they somehow ended up there,” he said. “I don’t think anybody wants a trade war, but it’s certainly possible.”
Not just China
Though trade talks with China have taken center stage, Eisman argued the process of solidifying trade relations with Europe is “more interesting,” given the EU’s concerns with regulations, as well as value-added tax (VAT). With 27 member states, the EU has to balance myriad agendas, complicating a potential trade deal.
“Negotiating with Europe is like trying to herd cats given the way they’re structured,” Eisman said.
Trump has claimed the EU was created to “screw” the U.S., threatening to impose, then later pausing, a 50% tariff on the union. As part of negotiations, the administration has tried to pressure the EU to loosen tech regulations he claims are inhibiting growth of U.S. companies. Trump also opposes VAT, essentially a sales tax that accumulates through each stage in a product’s supply chain. The president has interpreted VAT as another trade barrier, arguing the tax puts undue financial pressure on U.S. businesses trying to export to Europe.
Trump has signaled that the U.S. is not yet satisfied with provisions of the agreement, telling reporters on Tuesday, “We’re talking, but I don’t feel that they’re offering a fair deal yet.”
Trump’s former commerce secretary Wilbur Ross warned that after successful negotiations with China and the U.K., the Trump administration may become overconfident in negotiations with the EU, pushing away European allies.
“One fear is that if our government feels too chesty with their progress, they may overplay the hand and get to levels that are hard—maybe even impossible—for the other countries to give in,” Ross told Fortune last week.
“This is going to be hard, but our country’s goal should be to help make European nations stronger and keep them close,” he added.