在围绕人工智能是否会限制Z世代就业机会的争论中，还有一个事实不容忽视：数十年来，许多父母一直鼓励子女接受高等教育。这导致拥有学士学位的劳动力比例远高于前几代人，为刚完成学业、即将踏入职场的Z世代营造出全新竞争格局。
上周四，亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）总裁兼首席投资策略师埃德·亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）在一份报告中分析了应届大学毕业生失业现象及潜在影响因素。
他提到，从历史数据来看，22至27岁毕业生失业率向来低于整体劳动力失业水平，然而这一情况在2015年前后开始改变——远早于2022年末OpenAI聊天机器人问世以及随后掀起的生成式人工智能热潮。
事实上，纽约联邦储备银行汇编的数据显示，2014年12月，应届大学毕业生失业率首次微升至5.6%，略高于整体失业率5.5%。此后数年间，两组数据呈现交替领先态势。
然而疫情期间，应届大学毕业生失业率开始持续高于整体失业率。2022年初，两条趋势线之间的差距进一步拉大。
相比之下，至少在过去35年里，所有年龄段大学毕业生的失业率始终显著低于整体失业水平。
最新数据显示，6月应届毕业生失业率为4.8%，而整体劳动者失业率为4.0%。
“为何会出现这种变化？可能源于当前劳动力市场中接受过高等教育的人整体数量增多，导致应届毕业生与经验更丰富的高校毕业生竞争工作岗位。”亚德尼写道。
他援引Education Data Initiative的数据补充道，目前美国拥有学士及以上学位的人口比例已从2000年的25.6%升至37.5%。1993年至2023年间，大学毕业生数量激增74.9%，而持有高中文凭者数量仅增长14%。
与此同时，纽约联邦储备银行另一项按大学专业细分的失业率分析显示，计算机工程、计算机科学、物理学以及信息系统与管理专业的毕业生失业率高于整体劳动力失业水平。
“这表明过多年轻人选择投身计算机相关领域，然而他们面临的就业困境却比预期更为严峻。”亚德尼指出。
诚然，越来越多证据表明，人工智能正在对就业机会形成挤压，尤其是入门级岗位。亚德尼特别提到，圣智学习集团（Cengage Group）近期一项调查显示，人工智能是今年更多雇主计划维持或削减入门级岗位招聘的主要原因之一。
但他同时援引美国国家经济研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research）2023年的一篇论文，该论文发现人工智能实际上促使企业雇佣更多能够运用该技术的基层员工，这些员工无需管理层介入便可自主决策，进而推动企业组织结构向“扁平化”方向发展。
亚德尼补充道，还需将唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策纳入考量，这些措施推高了部分领域的通胀水平，加剧了经济不确定性，导致企业难以制定长期计划并扩大招聘规模。
华尔街其他分析师也对“人工智能是Z世代就业危机主因”的观点持怀疑态度。瑞银集团（UBS）首席经济学家保罗·唐纳文（Paul Donovan）认为，美国劳动力市场状况“颇为特殊”，并指出，欧元区年轻劳动者失业率已降至历史低位，英国年轻劳动者失业率稳步下降，而日本年轻劳动者劳动参与率则接近历史峰值。
他在上周五的报告中写道：“人工智能仅对美国年轻劳动者就业前景造成冲击的说法，极不可信。”
多年来，人们始终被灌输“上大学是谋得一份好工作的必要前提”，但如今这一观念可能正在逆转。技术工种日益受到青睐，尤其受到Z世代的追捧——他们渴望摆脱“整天对着电脑”的工作模式，并且认为这类技术岗位受人工智能的冲击更小，职业前景更好。
与此同时，Z世代就业危机正与学生债务危机相互交织，使年轻人愈发不愿为获取价值存疑的学位而背负巨额债务。
美国人如今对“上大学”的看法愈发消极，这不足为怪。本月早些时候盖洛普民意调查显示，仅35%的受访者认为上大学“至关重要”——这一比例创历史新低，较2019年的51%、2010年的75%大幅下滑。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
在围绕人工智能是否会限制Z世代就业机会的争论中，还有一个事实不容忽视：数十年来，许多父母一直鼓励子女接受高等教育。这导致拥有学士学位的劳动力比例远高于前几代人，为刚完成学业、即将踏入职场的Z世代营造出全新竞争格局。
上周四，亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）总裁兼首席投资策略师埃德·亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）在一份报告中分析了应届大学毕业生失业现象及潜在影响因素。
他提到，从历史数据来看，22至27岁毕业生失业率向来低于整体劳动力失业水平，然而这一情况在2015年前后开始改变——远早于2022年末OpenAI聊天机器人问世以及随后掀起的生成式人工智能热潮。
事实上，纽约联邦储备银行汇编的数据显示，2014年12月，应届大学毕业生失业率首次微升至5.6%，略高于整体失业率5.5%。此后数年间，两组数据呈现交替领先态势。
然而疫情期间，应届大学毕业生失业率开始持续高于整体失业率。2022年初，两条趋势线之间的差距进一步拉大。
相比之下，至少在过去35年里，所有年龄段大学毕业生的失业率始终显著低于整体失业水平。
最新数据显示，6月应届毕业生失业率为4.8%，而整体劳动者失业率为4.0%。
“为何会出现这种变化？可能源于当前劳动力市场中接受过高等教育的人整体数量增多，导致应届毕业生与经验更丰富的高校毕业生竞争工作岗位。”亚德尼写道。
他援引Education Data Initiative的数据补充道，目前美国拥有学士及以上学位的人口比例已从2000年的25.6%升至37.5%。1993年至2023年间，大学毕业生数量激增74.9%，而持有高中文凭者数量仅增长14%。
与此同时，纽约联邦储备银行另一项按大学专业细分的失业率分析显示，计算机工程、计算机科学、物理学以及信息系统与管理专业的毕业生失业率高于整体劳动力失业水平。
“这表明过多年轻人选择投身计算机相关领域，然而他们面临的就业困境却比预期更为严峻。”亚德尼指出。
诚然，越来越多证据表明，人工智能正在对就业机会形成挤压，尤其是入门级岗位。亚德尼特别提到，圣智学习集团（Cengage Group）近期一项调查显示，人工智能是今年更多雇主计划维持或削减入门级岗位招聘的主要原因之一。
但他同时援引美国国家经济研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research）2023年的一篇论文，该论文发现人工智能实际上促使企业雇佣更多能够运用该技术的基层员工，这些员工无需管理层介入便可自主决策，进而推动企业组织结构向“扁平化”方向发展。
亚德尼补充道，还需将唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策纳入考量，这些措施推高了部分领域的通胀水平，加剧了经济不确定性，导致企业难以制定长期计划并扩大招聘规模。
华尔街其他分析师也对“人工智能是Z世代就业危机主因”的观点持怀疑态度。瑞银集团（UBS）首席经济学家保罗·唐纳文（Paul Donovan）认为，美国劳动力市场状况“颇为特殊”，并指出，欧元区年轻劳动者失业率已降至历史低位，英国年轻劳动者失业率稳步下降，而日本年轻劳动者劳动参与率则接近历史峰值。
他在上周五的报告中写道：“人工智能仅对美国年轻劳动者就业前景造成冲击的说法，极不可信。”
多年来，人们始终被灌输“上大学是谋得一份好工作的必要前提”，但如今这一观念可能正在逆转。技术工种日益受到青睐，尤其受到Z世代的追捧——他们渴望摆脱“整天对着电脑”的工作模式，并且认为这类技术岗位受人工智能的冲击更小，职业前景更好。
与此同时，Z世代就业危机正与学生债务危机相互交织，使年轻人愈发不愿为获取价值存疑的学位而背负巨额债务。
美国人如今对“上大学”的看法愈发消极，这不足为怪。本月早些时候盖洛普民意调查显示，仅35%的受访者认为上大学“至关重要”——这一比例创历史新低，较2019年的51%、2010年的75%大幅下滑。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Amid the debate over AI’s role in limiting job opportunities for Gen Z, there is also the fact that for decades many parents have been encouraging their kids to go to college. That means the share of the workforce with a bachelor’s degree is larger than it was in prior generations, creating a new dynamic for Gen Zers who have just finished college and are looking to launch their careers.
In a note on Thursday, Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, examined unemployment among recent college grads and the potential factors contributing to it.
He pointed out that graduates from the age of 22 to 27 have historically enjoyed a lower jobless rate than the overall workforce. But that started to change around 2015—well before the advent of OpenAI’s chatbot in late 2022 and the rush into generative AI that followed.
In fact, data compiled by the New York Fed shows that the unemployment rate for recent grads edged above the total rate in December 2014, when it was 5.6% versus 5.5%. The years that followed saw the two rates go back and forth, trading places.
But during the pandemic, joblessness among recent college grads began consistently exceeding the overall rate. And in early 2022, the separation between the two trend lines started widening.
By contrast, the jobless rate for all college graduates across every age group has stayed well below the total rate for at least 35 years.
According to the latest data, the unemployment rate for recent grads was 4.8% in June, while it was 4.0% for all workers.
“Why this change? It may be due to the increase of college educated people in the workforce generally these days, so the new entrants are competing for jobs with more experienced college graduates,” Yardeni wrote.
Citing the Education Data Initiative, he added that the percentage of Americans with a bachelor’s degree or higher is now 37.5%, up from 25.6% in 2000. And between 1993 and 2023, the number college graduates soared 74.9% while those with only a high school diploma increased 14%.
Meanwhile, a separate New York Fed analysis that breaks down unemployment rates by college major shows that graduates with degrees in computer engineering, computer science, physics, and information systems and management have higher jobless rates than workers overall.
“This suggests that too many kids opted to go into computer-related fields and faced a tougher time than expected landing a good job,” Yardeni said.
To be sure, evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities, especially at the entry level. And Yardeni highlighted a recent survey by Cengage Group that showed AI is among the top reasons that more employers plan to hire the same or fewer entry-level workers than last year.
But he also cited a 2023 paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research that found that AI actually resulted in corporations having more lower-level employees who are able to use the technology, which allowed them to make decisions without management, creating a flatter organization.
And don’t forget President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which have stoked some inflation and boosted uncertainty about the economy, making it difficult for companies to plan ahead and grow their headcount, Yardeni added.
Others on Wall Street are also skeptical about AI’s role in the Gen Z job crisis. UBS chief economist Paul Donovan described the U.S. labor market as peculiar, pointing out that young workers in the euro zone have record low unemployment, their rate in the U.K. has fallen steadily, and their labor participation in Japan is near all-time highs.
“It seems highly implausible that AI uniquely hurts the employment prospects of younger US workers,” he wrote in a note on Friday.
But after years of being told that college was a necessity to get a good job, the pendulum may be swinging the other way. Trade jobs have become more popular, especially among Gen Zers who relish the idea of not being stuck in front of a computer and see a future that’s not so vulnerable to AI.
At the same time, the Gen Z job crisis is colliding with the student debt crisis, making young people more reluctant to borrow massive amounts of money to obtain a degree with questionable value.
Not surprisingly, Americans have a much dimmer view on college now. According to a Gallup Poll earlier this month, only 35% say going to college is “very important” — a record low — down from 51% in 2019 and 75% in 2010.