假日季即将来临，一年中最火爆的购物季也随之进入倒计时。距离“黑色星期五”仅剩23天，这一天历来象征着全民追逐折扣与“买到手软”的消费狂潮。
但一项最新调查显示，今年的黑色星期五将呈现出不同景象。消费者不再热衷于趁打折抢购大屏电视或高端家电，而只想购买维持基本生活的必需品。由于2025年的通胀冲击严重，消费者的支出重点正在发生转移。根据POS与支付系统平台Lightspeed发布的调查结果，高达四分之一的消费者表示，他们计划在黑色星期五这天只采购日常必需品，如食品杂货、洗护用品和家庭基础消耗品。
Lightspeed Commerce创始人兼首席执行官达克斯·达席尔瓦在一份声明中表示：“黑色星期五对零售商来说依然是生死攸关的时刻，但消费者的行为正在发生转变。消费者仍在承受生活成本上升的压力，因此‘公平、透明与共情’比以往任何时候都更加重要。”
Lightspeed此次调查覆盖美国与加拿大的3,000名成年人。结果显示，近半数受访者计划将今年黑五的支出预算在“生活必需品与非必需品”之间分摊。
尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普声称已“战胜通胀”，并在9月联合国大会上宣称食品杂货价格已下降，但相关证据寥寥。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔则在今年首次降息前夕（8月的一次重要讲话中）表示：“通胀水平虽仍略高，但已较疫情后高点有所回落。”
然而，多位行业专家与经济学家持不同观点，他们认为食品杂货价格可能继续上涨，甚至翻倍。德州农工大学布什政府学院（Texas A&M Bush School of Government）劳动经济学家、美国政府贸易与劳工政策顾问雷蒙德·罗伯逊近日在接受《财富》记者伊娃·罗伊特贝格采访时表示，新一轮食品杂货涨价潮可能在今年冬季全面爆发，并预测到明年年初，农产品价格或将上涨50%至100%。
他指出：“这就像看到洪水来袭——海啸正在逼近，而水位只上升了两英寸。”
早在今年春季，沃尔玛（Walmart）首席执行官董明伦就曾表示，消费者正表现出“压力行为”。当时，消费者信心也跌至12年以来最低点。董明伦说道：“你能明显看出，很多人月底前就把钱花光了，只能在月底买小包装商品。”
然而，更令零售商担忧的是，消费者几乎不再相信黑色星期五的折扣真实性。
Lightspeed的调查显示，84%的消费者认为零售商会先涨价后打折，以夸大折扣力度。这让人不由联想到今年秋天早些时候，塔吉特（Target）和沃尔玛员工称，公司要求他们移除商品价签，以便根据关税变动随时调整价格。
Lightspeed首席执行官达克斯·达席尔瓦表示：“如今消费者正倾向于先下单购买，再决定是否保留，因此零售商必须善加引导。最好的方式就是保持清晰与透明——明确折扣力度，如实说明产品尺寸和细节，并实时更新库存与物流信息。只有当消费者感到放心时，他们才会更理性地消费，减少退货。在经济紧缩的环境下，透明度是零售商最有效的销售策略。”（*）
译者：郝秀
审校：汪皓
假日季即将来临，一年中最火爆的购物季也随之进入倒计时。距离“黑色星期五”仅剩23天，这一天历来象征着全民追逐折扣与“买到手软”的消费狂潮。
但一项最新调查显示，今年的黑色星期五将呈现出不同景象。消费者不再热衷于趁打折抢购大屏电视或高端家电，而只想购买维持基本生活的必需品。由于2025年的通胀冲击严重，消费者的支出重点正在发生转移。根据POS与支付系统平台Lightspeed发布的调查结果，高达四分之一的消费者表示，他们计划在黑色星期五这天只采购日常必需品，如食品杂货、洗护用品和家庭基础消耗品。
Lightspeed Commerce创始人兼首席执行官达克斯·达席尔瓦在一份声明中表示：“黑色星期五对零售商来说依然是生死攸关的时刻，但消费者的行为正在发生转变。消费者仍在承受生活成本上升的压力，因此‘公平、透明与共情’比以往任何时候都更加重要。”
Lightspeed此次调查覆盖美国与加拿大的3,000名成年人。结果显示，近半数受访者计划将今年黑五的支出预算在“生活必需品与非必需品”之间分摊。
尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普声称已“战胜通胀”，并在9月联合国大会上宣称食品杂货价格已下降，但相关证据寥寥。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔则在今年首次降息前夕（8月的一次重要讲话中）表示：“通胀水平虽仍略高，但已较疫情后高点有所回落。”
然而，多位行业专家与经济学家持不同观点，他们认为食品杂货价格可能继续上涨，甚至翻倍。德州农工大学布什政府学院（Texas A&M Bush School of Government）劳动经济学家、美国政府贸易与劳工政策顾问雷蒙德·罗伯逊近日在接受《财富》记者伊娃·罗伊特贝格采访时表示，新一轮食品杂货涨价潮可能在今年冬季全面爆发，并预测到明年年初，农产品价格或将上涨50%至100%。
他指出：“这就像看到洪水来袭——海啸正在逼近，而水位只上升了两英寸。”
早在今年春季，沃尔玛（Walmart）首席执行官董明伦就曾表示，消费者正表现出“压力行为”。当时，消费者信心也跌至12年以来最低点。董明伦说道：“你能明显看出，很多人月底前就把钱花光了，只能在月底买小包装商品。”
然而，更令零售商担忧的是，消费者几乎不再相信黑色星期五的折扣真实性。
Lightspeed的调查显示，84%的消费者认为零售商会先涨价后打折，以夸大折扣力度。这让人不由联想到今年秋天早些时候，塔吉特（Target）和沃尔玛员工称，公司要求他们移除商品价签，以便根据关税变动随时调整价格。
Lightspeed首席执行官达克斯·达席尔瓦表示：“如今消费者正倾向于先下单购买，再决定是否保留，因此零售商必须善加引导。最好的方式就是保持清晰与透明——明确折扣力度，如实说明产品尺寸和细节，并实时更新库存与物流信息。只有当消费者感到放心时，他们才会更理性地消费，减少退货。在经济紧缩的环境下，透明度是零售商最有效的销售策略。”（*）
译者：郝秀
审校：汪皓
Holiday season is fast-approaching—and so is the biggest shopping season of the year. Black Friday is just 23 days away, a day synonymous with deal-chasing and a widespread shop-til-you-drop attitude among consumers.
But Black Friday will look a little different this year, a new survey shows. Instead of cashing in on discounts for mega TVs and luxury appliances, consumers this year are just trying to get by. Spending priorities are shifting because inflation has hit consumers so hard in 2025 that one in four consumers say they plan to use Black Friday only for everyday essentials like groceries, toiletries, and household basics, according to survey results released by point-of-sale and payments system platform Lightspeed.
“Black Friday is still a make-or-break moment for retailers, but shopper behavior is shifting,” Dax Dasilva, founder and CEO of Lightspeed Commerce, said in a statement. “Shoppers are still under the pressure of a higher cost of living, so fairness, transparency, and empathy matter more than ever.”
Lightspeed surveyed 3,000 adults in the U.S. and Canada for the study, and found nearly half of respondents said they plan to split spending between necessities and premium purchases.
Although President Donald Trump claims to have “defeated” inflation, claiming in September at the United Nations General Assembly grocery prices are down, there’s not much evidence for that. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a high-profile speech in August just before the first rate cut this year “inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down from its post-pandemic highs.”
But other industry experts and economists argue grocery prices could continue to rise—and even double. Raymond Robertson, a labor economist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government who has advised U.S. agencies on trade and labor policy, recently told Fortune’s Eva Roytberg a wave of grocery-price increases will likely hit this winter. He also predicts prices for produce could jump anywhere from 50% to 100% by early next year.
“This is like when you see a flood coming, the tsunami is coming in, and the water’s gone up two inches,” he said.
Back in spring, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said customers were exhibiting “stressed behaviors.” This was the same time period consumer confidence hit a 12-year low. “You can see that the money runs out before the month is gone, you can see that people are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month,” McMillon said.
But what should be even more concerning for retailers is the finding that consumers don’t really trust most Black Friday discounts are authentic.
The Lightspeed survey shows 84% of shoppers believe retailers inflate prices ahead of the sales to exaggerate discounts. That’s somewhat reminiscent of when, earlier this fall, Target and Walmart employees alleged the retailer forced them to remove price tags to make it easier to change prices based on tariffs.
“Consumers are buying fast and deciding later, so it’s up to retailers to guide that journey. The best way to do that is with clarity—showing what discounts really mean, being upfront about fit and product details, and keeping customers informed on delivery and stock,” Lightspeed’s Dasilva said. “When shoppers feel confident, they buy smarter and return less. In a tight economy, transparency is the strongest sales strategy retailers have.”