特朗普上周末对墨西哥和欧盟加征了30%关税，但投资者似乎无视特朗普的关税威胁，其依据是这些关税最终会通过谈判取消或无限期推迟。摩根大通（JPMorgan）指出，若市场认为如果特朗普意外坚持强硬立场，美联储必将出手相救，这种判断可能铸成大错。
德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）警告，这种“TACO交易”（TACO指特朗普终将退缩）正在累积巨大风险。
德意志银行分析师亨利·艾伦告知客户：“市场显然未消化这些高额关税，最终结果或仅在截止时刻揭晓，可能导致市场剧烈反应并加剧波动。”
其同事吉姆·里德持相同观点。他对客户表示：“平心而论，特朗普上月曾威胁对欧盟课征50%关税，相比之下当前局面已属改善。市场普遍认为这主要是谈判策略，最终税率不太可能落地。但到了某个阶段，一些人的虚张声势可能会被识破。当前美国风险市场逼近高位，债券市场相对稳定，特朗普面临让步压力较小。若8月1日真的在交投清淡的假期市场开征巨额关税，市场反应可能相当剧烈。"
高盛（Goldman Sachs）也持同样的立场。卡马克夏·特里维迪及其团队向客户表示：“市场参与者和我们的经济学家多预期这些关税不会生效。经历今年数次相同模式后，市场可能已判定当前宣布的税率过高而难以为继。”
瑞银（UBS）的保罗·多诺万同样指出：“金融市场似乎笃定特朗普最终会从其最新贸易关税威胁中退缩。”
市场似乎还假设，若“TACO交易”策略失败，美联储必会救市。但若关税推升通胀，美联储将无法如市场当前预期的那样实施降息。
摩根大通的布鲁斯·卡斯曼团队预测，随着关税冲击引发供给端震荡，下半年经济将呈现“滞胀倾向”。他们上周末告知客户：“该预测与市场定价之间出现惊人的脱节，后者预期企业盈利大幅增长且美国通胀几无上行压力。”
该团队表示：“我们的预测亦应视为对市场接受的‘金发姑娘情景’的挑战。在该情景中，未来一年，美国经济将保持稳健增长，通胀回落，且美联储采取宽松政策。”（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
特朗普上周末对墨西哥和欧盟加征了30%关税，但投资者似乎无视特朗普的关税威胁，其依据是这些关税最终会通过谈判取消或无限期推迟。摩根大通（JPMorgan）指出，若市场认为如果特朗普意外坚持强硬立场，美联储必将出手相救，这种判断可能铸成大错。
德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）警告，这种“TACO交易”（TACO指特朗普终将退缩）正在累积巨大风险。
德意志银行分析师亨利·艾伦告知客户：“市场显然未消化这些高额关税，最终结果或仅在截止时刻揭晓，可能导致市场剧烈反应并加剧波动。”
其同事吉姆·里德持相同观点。他对客户表示：“平心而论，特朗普上月曾威胁对欧盟课征50%关税，相比之下当前局面已属改善。市场普遍认为这主要是谈判策略，最终税率不太可能落地。但到了某个阶段，一些人的虚张声势可能会被识破。当前美国风险市场逼近高位，债券市场相对稳定，特朗普面临让步压力较小。若8月1日真的在交投清淡的假期市场开征巨额关税，市场反应可能相当剧烈。"
高盛（Goldman Sachs）也持同样的立场。卡马克夏·特里维迪及其团队向客户表示：“市场参与者和我们的经济学家多预期这些关税不会生效。经历今年数次相同模式后，市场可能已判定当前宣布的税率过高而难以为继。”
瑞银（UBS）的保罗·多诺万同样指出：“金融市场似乎笃定特朗普最终会从其最新贸易关税威胁中退缩。”
市场似乎还假设，若“TACO交易”策略失败，美联储必会救市。但若关税推升通胀，美联储将无法如市场当前预期的那样实施降息。
摩根大通的布鲁斯·卡斯曼团队预测，随着关税冲击引发供给端震荡，下半年经济将呈现“滞胀倾向”。他们上周末告知客户：“该预测与市场定价之间出现惊人的脱节，后者预期企业盈利大幅增长且美国通胀几无上行压力。”
该团队表示：“我们的预测亦应视为对市场接受的‘金发姑娘情景’的挑战。在该情景中，未来一年，美国经济将保持稳健增长，通胀回落，且美联储采取宽松政策。”（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
And yet, according to Wall Street, none of this should be happening. Investors seem to be ignoring President Trump’s tariff threats—he imposed 30% on Mexico and the EU over the weekend—on the assumption that they will eventually be negotiated away or pushed even further into the future. And, according to JPMorgan, the markets may be making a mistake if they think the Fed will come to their rescue in the event that Trump unexpectedly sticks to his guns.
Thus the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) is creating a ton of risk ahead, according to Deutsche Bank.
“Markets are clearly not pricing in these higher tariffs, and we may only know the outcome in the final hours, offering the potential for a sharp market reaction and heightened volatility,” DB’s Henry Allen told clients.
His colleague Jim Reid had much the same take: “To be fair, a month ago Trump threatened the EU with a 50% tariff so you might argue this is an improvement! The market will generally think this is mostly a negotiating tactic and that we’re unlikely to see such rates,” he told clients. “However at some stage, someone’s bluff could be called. Trump is under less pressure to back down with US risk markets around their highs and bond markets relatively stable at the moment. If huge tariffs do get imposed on August 1st, in thin holiday markets, we could get a sizeable market reaction.”
Goldman Sachs is singing from the same hymnbook. “Participants—and our economists—mostly do not expect these tariffs to go into effect. After seeing the pattern several times already this year, markets have likely determined that the rates being floated are too high to sustain,” Kamakshya Trivedi and his team told clients.
Likewise, Paul Donovan at UBS: “Financial markets seem content to assume US President Trump will default to retreating from their latest trade tax threats.”
The markets also seem to be assuming that the U.S. Federal Reserve will bail them out if anything goes wrong with their TACO trade. If the tariffs are inflationary, the Fed will not be able to deliver the cuts to interest rates that the markets are currently assuming are priced-in.
JPMorgan’s Bruce Kasman et al are predicting a “stagflationary tilt” for the second half of the year as the tariffs supply shocks hit the economy. “The disconnect between this forecast and market pricing of substantial gains in corporate earnings and little upward pressure on US inflation is striking,” they told clients over the weekend.
“Our forecast should also be seen as a challenge to the market’s embrace of a Goldilocks scenario of solid growth and declining US inflation alongside easing Fed over the coming year,” they said.