• 穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出，过去一周的经济指标表明，美国经济整体上正濒临衰退边缘。他警告称，美国劳动力市场持续疲软，消费者支出陷入停滞，建筑业与制造业也呈现萎缩态势。他还表示，鉴于通胀仍高于调控目标，美联储将难以重振经济增长。
美国上周五公布的就业报告令市场震惊，但这并非唯一的预警信号。穆迪分析的首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，过去一周的经济指标表明，美国经济整体上正在走向衰退。
面对唐纳德·特朗普的关税措施，美国经济曾在数月里表现出惊人的韧性，但如今经济前景骤然转黯。
赞迪上周日通过社交媒体X连发数条推文指出：“美国经济正濒临衰退边缘。这是上周经济数据集中释放的明确信号。消费支出停滞不前，建筑业与制造业持续收缩，就业率即将下滑。而通胀呈现攀升之势，美联储恐难以出手相救。”
上月新增就业岗位仅7.3万个，远低于预期的10万个。同时，5月数据从14.4万大幅下修至1.9万，6月数据更由14.7万锐减至1.4万，这意味着过去三个月平均新增就业岗位仅3.5万个。
尽管特朗普曾无端宣称就业数据“被人为操控”，并解雇了统计机构负责人，但赞迪强调：当经济处于衰退等拐点时，数据常会出现重大修正。
其他独立报告同样拉响警报。虽然第二季度GDP反弹超预期，但剔除外贸影响、反映最终国内需求的指标已显露疲态。
个人消费支出报告显示，核心通胀率加速升高至2.8%，进一步突破美联储2%的目标线，6月消费支出增速亦不及预期。美联储决策层正密切关注关税对通胀的影响，因此暂缓降息。
与此同时，6月单户住宅建设量骤降，导致建筑支出持续下滑。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）7月制造业活动指数回落，这表明行业萎缩加速。
目前亚特兰大联储（Atlanta Fed）GDP追踪指标仍显示美国经济持续增长，但预计三季度增速将从二季度的3%放缓至2.1%。
美国尚未出现大规模裁员的迹象，失业率持续稳定，过去一年多始终在4%至4.2%的区间内小幅波动。
但赞迪指出，失业率维持低位的实际原因是劳动力规模增长停滞。特朗普的移民限制政策导致过去半年外籍劳动力锐减120万人，总体劳动参与率同步走低。
劳动力供给疲软之际，需求端同步萎缩。赞迪指出“全行业暂停招聘现象，应届毕业生就业尤其艰难。”结果导致吸收新增劳动力、维持失业率稳定所需的“就业增长中性水平”已大幅降低。
赞迪补充道：“经济困境的根源显而易见：应归咎于美国加征关税及严苛的移民政策。关税正日益削弱美国企业的利润与家庭购买力，而移民劳工减少直接导致经济规模收缩。”
上周五，摩根大通（JPMorgan）经济学家同样警告经济衰退的潜在风险。他们指出，就业数据显示，私营部门招聘降温，近三月平均招聘人数骤降至5.2万，除医疗教育行业外，各行业招聘普遍停滞。
他们解释称，再加上移民政策目前并未引发被动离职激增，这预示着企业的用工需求降温。
摩根大通补充道：“我们一直强调，劳动力需求如此幅度的滑坡就是经济衰退的预警信号。企业通常在经济短暂放缓期维持招聘，但劳动力需求下滑与经济减速同步发生，往往是裁员的前兆。"（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
• 穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出，过去一周的经济指标表明，美国经济整体上正濒临衰退边缘。他警告称，美国劳动力市场持续疲软，消费者支出陷入停滞，建筑业与制造业也呈现萎缩态势。他还表示，鉴于通胀仍高于调控目标，美联储将难以重振经济增长。
美国上周五公布的就业报告令市场震惊，但这并非唯一的预警信号。穆迪分析的首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，过去一周的经济指标表明，美国经济整体上正在走向衰退。
面对唐纳德·特朗普的关税措施，美国经济曾在数月里表现出惊人的韧性，但如今经济前景骤然转黯。
赞迪上周日通过社交媒体X连发数条推文指出：“美国经济正濒临衰退边缘。这是上周经济数据集中释放的明确信号。消费支出停滞不前，建筑业与制造业持续收缩，就业率即将下滑。而通胀呈现攀升之势，美联储恐难以出手相救。”
上月新增就业岗位仅7.3万个，远低于预期的10万个。同时，5月数据从14.4万大幅下修至1.9万，6月数据更由14.7万锐减至1.4万，这意味着过去三个月平均新增就业岗位仅3.5万个。
尽管特朗普曾无端宣称就业数据“被人为操控”，并解雇了统计机构负责人，但赞迪强调：当经济处于衰退等拐点时，数据常会出现重大修正。
其他独立报告同样拉响警报。虽然第二季度GDP反弹超预期，但剔除外贸影响、反映最终国内需求的指标已显露疲态。
个人消费支出报告显示，核心通胀率加速升高至2.8%，进一步突破美联储2%的目标线，6月消费支出增速亦不及预期。美联储决策层正密切关注关税对通胀的影响，因此暂缓降息。
与此同时，6月单户住宅建设量骤降，导致建筑支出持续下滑。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）7月制造业活动指数回落，这表明行业萎缩加速。
目前亚特兰大联储（Atlanta Fed）GDP追踪指标仍显示美国经济持续增长，但预计三季度增速将从二季度的3%放缓至2.1%。
美国尚未出现大规模裁员的迹象，失业率持续稳定，过去一年多始终在4%至4.2%的区间内小幅波动。
但赞迪指出，失业率维持低位的实际原因是劳动力规模增长停滞。特朗普的移民限制政策导致过去半年外籍劳动力锐减120万人，总体劳动参与率同步走低。
劳动力供给疲软之际，需求端同步萎缩。赞迪指出“全行业暂停招聘现象，应届毕业生就业尤其艰难。”结果导致吸收新增劳动力、维持失业率稳定所需的“就业增长中性水平”已大幅降低。
赞迪补充道：“经济困境的根源显而易见：应归咎于美国加征关税及严苛的移民政策。关税正日益削弱美国企业的利润与家庭购买力，而移民劳工减少直接导致经济规模收缩。”
上周五，摩根大通（JPMorgan）经济学家同样警告经济衰退的潜在风险。他们指出，就业数据显示，私营部门招聘降温，近三月平均招聘人数骤降至5.2万，除医疗教育行业外，各行业招聘普遍停滞。
他们解释称，再加上移民政策目前并未引发被动离职激增，这预示着企业的用工需求降温。
摩根大通补充道：“我们一直强调，劳动力需求如此幅度的滑坡就是经济衰退的预警信号。企业通常在经济短暂放缓期维持招聘，但劳动力需求下滑与经济减速同步发生，往往是裁员的前兆。"（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
• Indicators from the past week paint an overall picture of an economy on the edge of a downturn, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. Not only is the labor market weakening, but consumer spending is flat while construction and manufacturing are shrinking, he warned, adding that the Federal Reserve will have a hard time reviving growth with inflation still above its target.
The shocking jobs report on Friday wasn’t the only red flag. Indicators from the past week paint an overall picture of an economy that’s headed for a downturn, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.
After months of looking remarkably resilient in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the economic outlook has suddenly turned gloomier.
“The economy is on the precipice of recession. That’s the clear takeaway from last week’s economic data dump,” Zandi wrote in a series of posts on X on Sunday. “Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue.”
Payrolls grew by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for about 100,000. Meanwhile, May’s tally was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s total was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000, meaning the average gain over the past three months is now only 35,000.
While Trump has claimed without evidence that the jobs data was “rigged” and fired the head of the agency that produces the report, Zandi noted that data often gets big revisions when the economy is at an inflection point, like a recession.
Separate reports also held warning signs. GDP rebounded more robustly than expected in the second quarter, but a metric that strips out the impact of foreign trade and looks instead at final domestic demand indicated slowing.
The personal consumption expenditures report showed core inflation accelerated to 2.8%, further above the Fed’s 2% target, and that consumer spending rose less than expected in June. Fed policymakers have held off on interest rate cuts as they wait to see how much tariffs impact inflation.
Meanwhile, construction spending continued to decline in June amid a sharp drop in single-family homes. And the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing activity index for July dipped, indicating the sector contracted at a quicker pace.
For now, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker points to continued growth, though it’s expected to decelerate to 2.1% in the third quarter from 3% in the second quarter.
There are also no signs of mass layoffs, and the unemployment rate has barely changed, bouncing in a tight range between 4% and 4.2% for more than a year.
But Zandi said the jobless rate is still low only because the size of the labor force has stagnated. That’s as the foreign-born workforce has plunged by 1.2 million in the last six months amid Trump’s immigration crackdown, while the overall labor participation rate has slipped.
As the supply of labor has softened, so has the demand. Zandi pointed to an “economy-wide hiring freeze, particularly for recent graduates.” The upshot is that the so-called neutral level of job gains needed to absorb new workers—and keep the unemployment rate steady—is now much lower.
“It’s no mystery why the economy is struggling; blame increasing U.S. tariffs and highly restrictive immigration policy,” Zandi added. “The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households. Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy.”
On Friday, economists at JPMorgan similarly sounded the alarm on a potential downturn. They noted that jobs data show hiring in the private sector has cooled to an average of just 52,000 in the last three months, with sectors outside health and education stalling.
Coupled with the lack of any signs that unwanted separations are surging due to immigration policy, this is a strong signal that business demand for labor has cooled, they explained.
“We have consistently emphasized that a slide in labor demand of this magnitude is a recession warning signal,” JPMorgan added. “Firms normally maintain hiring gains through growth downshifts they perceive as transitory. In episodes when labor demand slides with a growth downshift, it is often a precursor to retrenchment.”