尽管部分华尔街人士担心美国陷入经济衰退，但最新经济数据显示，当前美国GDP增速实际上较早期指标呈现加速态势。
在强劲消费支出的推动下，第二季度GDP增速于上周四从此前的3.3%上修至3.8%。此前因唐纳德·特朗普发起的贸易战，第一季度GDP增速有所下滑。
与此同时，第三季度经济升温态势日益明朗。上周四公布的数据显示，8月耐用品订单增幅远超预期；而上周五发布的个人收支报告显示，8月消费支出依然保持健康增长，且同样超出预期。
鉴于消费支出占美国经济总量的逾三分之二，其强劲表现足以抵消房地产领域的疲软。当前房地产行业仍受高房价和高抵押贷款利率的双重冲击。
基于8月消费数据及收窄的贸易逆差，亚特兰大联储（Atlanta Fed）GDP追踪指标将第三季度增速预期从此前的3.3%上调至3.9%。
这一高增长率或许并非终点。凯投宏观（Capital Economics）北美区副首席经济学家斯蒂芬·布朗在上周五的报告中指出，收支数据应能进一步缓解市场对美国经济濒临急剧放缓的担忧。
他还指出，推动增长的主力是通常在经济低迷时被削减的可自由支配支出。尽管过去三个月支出增幅持续超过收入增幅，但8月储蓄率仍维持在4.6%的较高水平，表明消费者并未出现过度透支的情况。
布朗补充道：“8月实际消费增长意味着，鉴于第三季度初期的更强劲势头，我们现在将当季消费增速预期从上周的2.3%上调至3.3%。第三季度GDP增速有望触及4%。”
需要明确的是，强劲的GDP数据也意味着美联储（Federal Reserve）实施激进降息的压力将减轻。凯投宏观预计美联储在今年剩余两次会议中仅会降息一次，而华尔街则押注两次会议均会降息。
衰退隐忧
此番乐观增长预期与穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）首席经济学家马克·赞迪发出的警告形成鲜明对比。赞迪曾表示美国经济“濒临衰退”。
尽管于上周二结束的第三季度数据表现良好，但他预测随着特朗普关税政策与移民管制的影响达到峰值，今年末和明年初美国经济将面临最大衰退风险。
尽管在通胀高企和关税压力下消费仍保持韧性，但房地产领域仍可能引领经济下行。赞迪指出，建筑许可是预测经济衰退最关键的经济变量，而当前相关数据已跌至疫情时期低点。
总体消费的增长亦掩盖了美国消费者群体的严重分化及对高收入群体依赖的加深。
穆迪近期测算显示，自疫情以来，收入底层80%的人群的消费支出仅与通胀持平，而顶层20%的人群才是增长的主要推动力。
赞迪强调：“只要高收入群体持续消费，经济就能避免衰退。但若他们因为任何原因转向保守，经济将面临严重困境。”（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
尽管部分华尔街人士担心美国陷入经济衰退，但最新经济数据显示，当前美国GDP增速实际上较早期指标呈现加速态势。
在强劲消费支出的推动下，第二季度GDP增速于上周四从此前的3.3%上修至3.8%。此前因唐纳德·特朗普发起的贸易战，第一季度GDP增速有所下滑。
与此同时，第三季度经济升温态势日益明朗。上周四公布的数据显示，8月耐用品订单增幅远超预期；而上周五发布的个人收支报告显示，8月消费支出依然保持健康增长，且同样超出预期。
鉴于消费支出占美国经济总量的逾三分之二，其强劲表现足以抵消房地产领域的疲软。当前房地产行业仍受高房价和高抵押贷款利率的双重冲击。
基于8月消费数据及收窄的贸易逆差，亚特兰大联储（Atlanta Fed）GDP追踪指标将第三季度增速预期从此前的3.3%上调至3.9%。
这一高增长率或许并非终点。凯投宏观（Capital Economics）北美区副首席经济学家斯蒂芬·布朗在上周五的报告中指出，收支数据应能进一步缓解市场对美国经济濒临急剧放缓的担忧。
他还指出，推动增长的主力是通常在经济低迷时被削减的可自由支配支出。尽管过去三个月支出增幅持续超过收入增幅，但8月储蓄率仍维持在4.6%的较高水平，表明消费者并未出现过度透支的情况。
布朗补充道：“8月实际消费增长意味着，鉴于第三季度初期的更强劲势头，我们现在将当季消费增速预期从上周的2.3%上调至3.3%。第三季度GDP增速有望触及4%。”
需要明确的是，强劲的GDP数据也意味着美联储（Federal Reserve）实施激进降息的压力将减轻。凯投宏观预计美联储在今年剩余两次会议中仅会降息一次，而华尔街则押注两次会议均会降息。
衰退隐忧
此番乐观增长预期与穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）首席经济学家马克·赞迪发出的警告形成鲜明对比。赞迪曾表示美国经济“濒临衰退”。
尽管于上周二结束的第三季度数据表现良好，但他预测随着特朗普关税政策与移民管制的影响达到峰值，今年末和明年初美国经济将面临最大衰退风险。
尽管在通胀高企和关税压力下消费仍保持韧性，但房地产领域仍可能引领经济下行。赞迪指出，建筑许可是预测经济衰退最关键的经济变量，而当前相关数据已跌至疫情时期低点。
总体消费的增长亦掩盖了美国消费者群体的严重分化及对高收入群体依赖的加深。
穆迪近期测算显示，自疫情以来，收入底层80%的人群的消费支出仅与通胀持平，而顶层20%的人群才是增长的主要推动力。
赞迪强调：“只要高收入群体持续消费，经济就能避免衰退。但若他们因为任何原因转向保守，经济将面临严重困境。”（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
While some on Wall Street are worried about a recession, recent economic data show that GDP growth is actually speeding up faster than earlier numbers indicated.
On Thursday, second-quarter growth was revised even higher, to 3.8% from a prior reading of 3.3%, on robust consumer spending. That’s after a first-quarter dip that was driven by President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Meanwhile, third-quarter growth is shaping up to be hotter. Durable goods orders for August jumped more than expected, according to data released on Thursday. And the personal income and spending report on Friday showed consumption remained healthy in August while also topping forecasts.
Given that consumer spending represents over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the gains more than offset weakness in housing, which remains buffeted by high home prices and mortgage rates.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker now puts third-quarter growth at 3.9%, up from an earlier estimate of 3.3%, citing the consumption data and a narrower trade deficit in August.
Growth may not stop at that lofty rate. Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on Friday that the income and spending data should further ease fears that the U.S. is on the cusp of a sharp slowdown.
He also noted that discretionary spending, which typically is cut when consumers are suffering, drove growth. And while gains in spending have outpaced income for the last three months, the August savings rate was still at a relatively high 4.6%, meaning consumers are not yet overextended.
“The rise in real consumption in August means that, given the stronger momentum going into the third quarter, we now have third-quarter consumption growth tracking as high as 3.3%, up from 2.3% last week,” Brown added. “Third-quarter GDP growth will be as high as 4%.”
To be sure, stronger GDP also means the Federal Reserve will be under less pressure to lower rates aggressively. Capital Economics expects the Fed to cut at only one of its two remaining meetings this year, while Wall Street is betting on cuts at both meetings.
Recession fears
The upbeat growth forecast contrasts with warnings from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, who has said the economy is “on the precipice of recession.”
While the third quarter, which ends on Tuesday, looks good, he predicted the U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as the impacts of Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown peak.
And despite consumption staying resilient in the face of elevated inflation and tariffs, housing could still lead the economy lower. Zandi has pointed to building permits as the most critical economic variable for predicting recessions, and they are now at pandemic-era lows.
The gains in aggregate consumption also obscure the sharp divide among American consumers, and the growing reliance on top earners.
Moody’s recently estimated that the bottom 80% of earners have merely spent in line with inflation since the pandemic, while the top 20% are driving growth.
“As long as they keep spending, the economy should avoid recession, but if they turn more cautious, for whatever reason, the economy has a big problem,” Zandi noted.