Z世代过得不好——这是牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）在深入研究了这代人的经济前景后给出的正式诊断。确实，当前“既不轻易招聘也不轻易解雇”的劳动力市场，加上房价高不可攀和工资增长乏力这两大资产逆风，意味着劳动力市场最年轻的进入者可能面临“长期创伤”。但Z世代的困境不仅仅影响着这些年轻人；它正对整个经济产生更广泛的连锁反应。牛津经济研究院的一份新报告不仅揭示了因Z世代无法进入劳动力市场而损失的经济活动水平，还揭示了他们因此仍与父母同住并减少消费所造成的代价。
这份题为《年轻人过得不好》的报告描述了，由于年轻人住在父母家，在住房、交通和食品上的支出减少，每年如何导致120亿美元的经济损失。
决定Z世代前景的关键因素之一是就业市场。自2022年以来，招聘率一直呈下降趋势，目前仅为3.2%，远低于历史平均水平，与新冠疫情期间的水平相当。
“对于年轻劳动者来说，在判断其整体经济健康状况时，劳动力市场状况是最关键的一环，因为他们尚未有机会积累财富，”助理经济学家格雷丝·兹韦默（Grace Zwemmer）写道。“年轻劳动者更容易受到经济衰退的冲击，而疲软的劳动力市场会对工资增长和收入潜力产生持久的负面影响。”
Z世代的求职者——目前年龄在13至28岁之间——在找到工作方面面临多重障碍。随着招聘趋势向下，缺乏经验的人群中失业率上升得尤其快，16至24岁人群的失业率远高于全国平均水平。根据牛津经济研究院的分析，虽然美国整体失业率的三个月移动平均值维持在4%左右，但16至19岁年龄段的失业率高达14%，而19至24岁年龄段的平均失业率约为9%。
在分析2025年Z世代求职者失业的原因时，出现了以下几类：大学毕业重新进入市场者、失去临时工作的年轻人以及被裁员者。“当劳动力市场状况恶化时，年轻劳动者往往是首批被解雇的人，”兹韦默补充道。
除此之外，紧张的就业市场意味着，即使是那些设法找到工作的人，也无法通过在不同合同间“跳槽”来增加收入和积累经验。“年轻劳动者通常在职业生涯早期享有高于平常的工资增长，因为更快的技能积累有助于他们从入门级工作中获得晋升，更多的职业流动性使他们能够通过更换雇主在较短时间内获得更大幅度的加薪，”这位经济学家继续说道。“但在当前这个周期，这种情况并未发生。相反，职业上升通道受阻，16至24岁劳动者的工资增长下降最为剧烈。”
根基不稳
在就业市场上无所作为或参与度低，也意味着Z世代的经济行为与以往同年龄段的人不同。例如，没有工作，年轻人往往缺乏经济能力搬离父母家，开始自己支付房租、水电费和食品杂货。
“我们估计，与疫情前的趋势相比，现在多出了100万22至28岁的年轻成年人与父母同住，”兹韦默补充道，并指出纽约联邦储备银行（New York Federal Reserve）的研究表明，由此导致的消费拖累高达120亿美元。
对于那些希望有朝一日能获得更大独立性的人来说，有个好消息：千禧一代在几十年前也面临过类似的困境。研究发现，在大衰退期间，22至28岁年轻成年人与父母同住的比例从27%上升至32%，并在其后数年保持高位——报告补充说，“这标志着职业生涯早期收入微薄以及借贷条件收紧所造成的永久性创伤效应。”
然而，截至2025年，尽管房价创下历史新高，并且在美联储加息政策下抵押贷款利率保持高位，仍有55%的千禧一代拥有自己的住房。
但在市场状况出现某种缓解之前，Z世代的担忧是可以理解的：“对年轻成年人而言，劳动力市场状况是其财务状况的关键决定因素。对劳动力市场状况更差的看法正使他们变得更加悲观，并可能使他们在消费时更加谨慎，”兹韦默总结道。（*）
译者：朴成奎
Z世代过得不好——这是牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）在深入研究了这代人的经济前景后给出的正式诊断。确实，当前“既不轻易招聘也不轻易解雇”的劳动力市场，加上房价高不可攀和工资增长乏力这两大资产逆风，意味着劳动力市场最年轻的进入者可能面临“长期创伤”。但Z世代的困境不仅仅影响着这些年轻人；它正对整个经济产生更广泛的连锁反应。牛津经济研究院的一份新报告不仅揭示了因Z世代无法进入劳动力市场而损失的经济活动水平，还揭示了他们因此仍与父母同住并减少消费所造成的代价。
这份题为《年轻人过得不好》的报告描述了，由于年轻人住在父母家，在住房、交通和食品上的支出减少，每年如何导致120亿美元的经济损失。
决定Z世代前景的关键因素之一是就业市场。自2022年以来，招聘率一直呈下降趋势，目前仅为3.2%，远低于历史平均水平，与新冠疫情期间的水平相当。
“对于年轻劳动者来说，在判断其整体经济健康状况时，劳动力市场状况是最关键的一环，因为他们尚未有机会积累财富，”助理经济学家格雷丝·兹韦默（Grace Zwemmer）写道。“年轻劳动者更容易受到经济衰退的冲击，而疲软的劳动力市场会对工资增长和收入潜力产生持久的负面影响。”
Z世代的求职者——目前年龄在13至28岁之间——在找到工作方面面临多重障碍。随着招聘趋势向下，缺乏经验的人群中失业率上升得尤其快，16至24岁人群的失业率远高于全国平均水平。根据牛津经济研究院的分析，虽然美国整体失业率的三个月移动平均值维持在4%左右，但16至19岁年龄段的失业率高达14%，而19至24岁年龄段的平均失业率约为9%。
在分析2025年Z世代求职者失业的原因时，出现了以下几类：大学毕业重新进入市场者、失去临时工作的年轻人以及被裁员者。“当劳动力市场状况恶化时，年轻劳动者往往是首批被解雇的人，”兹韦默补充道。
除此之外，紧张的就业市场意味着，即使是那些设法找到工作的人，也无法通过在不同合同间“跳槽”来增加收入和积累经验。“年轻劳动者通常在职业生涯早期享有高于平常的工资增长，因为更快的技能积累有助于他们从入门级工作中获得晋升，更多的职业流动性使他们能够通过更换雇主在较短时间内获得更大幅度的加薪，”这位经济学家继续说道。“但在当前这个周期，这种情况并未发生。相反，职业上升通道受阻，16至24岁劳动者的工资增长下降最为剧烈。”
根基不稳
在就业市场上无所作为或参与度低，也意味着Z世代的经济行为与以往同年龄段的人不同。例如，没有工作，年轻人往往缺乏经济能力搬离父母家，开始自己支付房租、水电费和食品杂货。
“我们估计，与疫情前的趋势相比，现在多出了100万22至28岁的年轻成年人与父母同住，”兹韦默补充道，并指出纽约联邦储备银行（New York Federal Reserve）的研究表明，由此导致的消费拖累高达120亿美元。
对于那些希望有朝一日能获得更大独立性的人来说，有个好消息：千禧一代在几十年前也面临过类似的困境。研究发现，在大衰退期间，22至28岁年轻成年人与父母同住的比例从27%上升至32%，并在其后数年保持高位——报告补充说，“这标志着职业生涯早期收入微薄以及借贷条件收紧所造成的永久性创伤效应。”
然而，截至2025年，尽管房价创下历史新高，并且在美联储加息政策下抵押贷款利率保持高位，仍有55%的千禧一代拥有自己的住房。
但在市场状况出现某种缓解之前，Z世代的担忧是可以理解的：“对年轻成年人而言，劳动力市场状况是其财务状况的关键决定因素。对劳动力市场状况更差的看法正使他们变得更加悲观，并可能使他们在消费时更加谨慎，”兹韦默总结道。（*）
译者：朴成奎
Gen Z isn't ok---that's the official diagnosis from Oxford Economics following a deep dive into the generation's economic prospects. Indeed, the no-hire no-fire labor market, coupled with the asset headwinds of unaffordable housing and low wage growth, means the youngest entrants to the labor market could face “long-term scarring.” But the outlook for Gen Z isn't just affecting these young individuals; it's having wider ramifications for the economy as a whole. A new report from Oxford Economics not only reveals the level of activity lost because Gen Z cannot enter the labor market, but also the cost of them still living with their parents and consuming less as a result.
The report, titled 'The kids aren't alright', describes how $12 billion a year is being lost because younger people are spending less on housing, transportation, and food by living in the family home.
One of the key factors determining the outlook for Gen Z is the job market, where the hiring rate has been trending down since 2022, and now lies at 3.2%, well below its historical average and on par with the rate during the COVID pandemic.
“For young workers, the state of the labor market is the most important piece of the puzzle when determining overall economic health, as these individuals have not had the opportunity to accumulate wealth,” writes associate economist Grace Zwemmer. “Young workers are more vulnerable to economic downturns, and a weak labor market can have a lasting negative impact on wage growth and earning potential.”
Gen Z job seekers---currently aged 13 to 28---are facing multiple barriers to landing a role. With hiring tracking downward, unemployment has risen particularly fast among those with less experience, with the unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds well above the national average. While America's overall unemployment rate has sat around 4% as a three-month moving average, those in the 16-19 age bracket are contending with a 14% rate, while 19-24-year-olds average around 9%, according to Oxford's analytics.
When breaking down the reasons for Gen Z job seekers to be unemployed in 2025, the following categories have emerged: market reentrants from college graduates, young people losing temporary roles, and those being laid off. “When labor market conditions deteriorate, young workers are often the first to be let go,” Zwemmer adds.
On top of that, the tight market means even those who do manage to get a job can't “hop” from one contract to another to build their earnings and experience. “Young workers typically benefit from higher-than-usual wage growth early on in their career, as faster skill accumulation helps them get promoted from entry-level jobs and more job mobility allows them to switch employers to find larger pay bumps over a shorter period,” the economist continued. “But this isn't happening this cycle. Instead, upward mobility has stalled, and wage growth has fallen most sharply for workers aged 16-24.”
Shaky foundations
A no- or low-stakes approach to the job market also means Gen Z isn't acting in the economy the same way previous generations did at the same age. For example, without a job, younger people often lack the financial means to move out of their parents' home and start paying for their own rent, utilities, and groceries.
“We estimate that there are an additional one million young adults aged 22-28 that are living at home with their parents, compared to pre-pandemic trends,” added Zwemmer, adding that research from the New York Federal Reservesuggests the asso ciated drag on spending is worth $12 billion.
For those people hoping to achieve greater independence one day, there's good news: Millennials faced a similar predicament a few decades ago. The study found that during the Great Recession, the share of young adults aged between 22 and 28 rose from 27% to 32% and remained elevated for years after---“a sign of the permanent scarring effects of weak early career earnings, as well as tighter borrowing conditions,” the report adds.
However, as of 2025, 55% of millennials own their own homes---even as prices reach record highs and mortgage rates remain elevated under the Federal Reserve rate-hiking regime.
But until there's some easing in market conditions, Gen Z is understandably worried: “A worse perception of labor market conditions, which for young adults are the key determinants of financial well-being, is making them more pessimistic and may make them more cautious when it comes to spending,” Zwemmer concluded.