上周Figma轰动一时的首次公开募股（IPO），重新引发了围绕IPO定价和首日股价暴涨的长期争论——这只新上市股票在首个交易日股价飙升333%，如此反应其实并不出人意料。随着投资者对此次发行进行深入分析（而Figma的股价也有所回落，周一下跌27%），其他关键问题也随之浮现：Figma的上市能否吸引其他初创公司加入IPO行列，从而终结科技行业的IPO“寒冬”？倘若如此，接下来会是谁？
华尔街投资银行家们渴望将众多处于后期阶段、获得风险投资支持且拥有强大客户群体的科技公司推向公开市场。其中包括Databricks、Klarna、Stripe和SpaceX等多家市值高达数十亿美元的公司，它们多年来一直是IPO传闻的焦点。诚然，还有一批估值颇高的人工智能初创公司，从OpenAI和Anthropic，到埃隆·马斯克的xAI。
这些公司很可能继续成为焦点，但在Figma上市后我与数位投资者的交谈中，他们提到其他一些公司更可能率先上市，包括Canva、Revolut、Midjourney、Motive和安杜里尔工业公司（Anduril）。
“成功的IPO对所有人而言都是积极信号，”Forerunner Ventures创始人兼管理合伙人克里斯汀·格林（Kirsten Green）表示，该公司投资组合中的Chime近期已上市，并在首个交易日中股价上涨37%。（Forerunner还投资了上市公司Hims & Hers以及包括Oura在内的处于后期阶段的私营公司。） “我认为我们应当重新审视这一观点：IPO是进入公开市场的A轮融资——而这确实能成为人们愿意甚至渴望推动公司上市的动力。”（仿佛为了印证这一观点，医疗科技公司HeartFlow于8月1日提交了IPO的S-1文件，其估值达13亿美元。）
PitchBook美国风险投资研究主管凯尔·斯坦福（Kyle Stanford）指出，截至今年6月30日，仅有18家风险投资支持的公司成功上市。他认为，这既受政策不确定性导致的融资阻力影响，也与2021年过度融资现象持续抑制风险投资有关。“Figma有望打破僵局，但本季度进展相当缓慢。”他说道。
尽管Figma作为设计软件公司已实现盈利且拥有强大的集成人工智能能力，但斯坦福指出，这些特质并非IPO成功的必要条件。他认为投资者更希望公司能创造至少2亿美元的营收，维持高速增长态势，并优先考虑正自由现金流而非盈利能力。拥有人工智能相关的故事也“极为重要”，除非该公司增长迅猛且利润率极高。
多位受访投资者表示，Canva可能是最具说服力的案例，因为它是一家与Figma基本面相似的设计公司。设计协作公司Canva在18轮融资中成功筹集约5.89亿美元，估值达320亿美元，高于Figma IPO时的估值。“就Figma昨天的表现而言，Canva是大赢家，”Primary Ventures的投资者杰森·舒曼（Jason Shuman）表示。舒曼并非Canva的投资者，他指出，Canva年营收达30亿美元且年同比增长率达35%，这是其业务具备持久性的标志。
其他人也持相同观点。“在看到Figma的案例后，天啊，Canva必然会尽快寻求IPO。”Hedgeye Risk Management的董事总经理兼合伙人菲利克斯·王（Felix Wang）表示，他并非Canva的投资者。Canva在最近一次股票回购中估值达370亿美元，该公司未回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
王等人指出，Figma股价的飙升在很大程度上并非由其自身推动。相反，市场正处于历史高位，引发了散户投资者对新上市企业的投资需求。“他们甚至对这家公司一无所知，仅仅知道它是新上市的，”王谈及散户投资者投资 Figma 时说道。“他们会投入部分资金，更有趣的是：他们会在社交媒体上炫耀。”
Primary的舒曼认为，Figma之于Canva，就如同NuBank之于Revolut。他研究了金融科技公司NuBank，该公司自2025年初上市以来股价上涨约13%，他认为业务模式极为相似的Revolut可能会效仿其做法。Revolut在给《财富》杂志的一份声明中表示：“我们的重点不在于是否或何时进行IPO，而是持续拓展业务、开发新产品、并为不断增长的全球客户群提供更优质、更实惠的服务。”
Primary的舒曼还指出，另一家潜在的IPO候选公司是芯片制造商Cerebras。他投资于垂直人工智能、B2B、中小企业及金融和国防领域的公司，不过并未持有Cerebras或Revolut的股份。（Cerebras于2024年9月提交了S-1文件，但由于监管机构对阿联酋G42 3.35亿美元的投资存在顾虑，其IPO被推迟。据《The Information》报道，如今，该公司已获监管机构批准可公开上市，但因正在筹集10亿美元资金，暂缓了IPO计划。）
许多公司，包括规模最为庞大、最炙手可热的私营公司OpenAI（据《纽约时报》报道，其估值刚攀升至3000亿美元），都有强烈的动机维持私有化状态。这是因为它们能够避免因上市公司必须履行信息披露义务而受到公众监督，同时还能获得大量私人资本注入以维持资金流动性，而这往往是企业生存的关键。
然而，像OpenAI、Stripe（估值达910亿美元）以及SpaceX（估值高达4000亿美元）这样的巨头维持私有化状态，或许会给公开市场带来隐性成本。“我想从哲学角度谈谈，”Forerunner的格林表示。“公开市场的创立，部分初衷在于让更广泛的民众能够参与到经济当中，共享经济增长成果，而不是让财富集中在少数人手中。”
有一家巨头或许即将成为股市焦点。国防科技公司安杜里尔工业公司在G轮融资中获得了305亿美元的估值，由于其业务性质，该公司有理由维持私营状态。但Pitchbook的斯坦福预测，它将成为下一家进行IPO的科技公司。斯坦福认为，除了安杜里尔工业公司的首席执行官宣称其“必然”会上市之外，该公司的价值主张也是特朗普政府安全与国防领域工作重点的核心所在，这可能会使其成为投资者追捧的对象。
“除此之外，”他说，如今潜在IPO候选公司的名单很长：“可能还有约300家其他公司。”（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
上周Figma轰动一时的首次公开募股（IPO），重新引发了围绕IPO定价和首日股价暴涨的长期争论——这只新上市股票在首个交易日股价飙升333%，如此反应其实并不出人意料。随着投资者对此次发行进行深入分析（而Figma的股价也有所回落，周一下跌27%），其他关键问题也随之浮现：Figma的上市能否吸引其他初创公司加入IPO行列，从而终结科技行业的IPO“寒冬”？倘若如此，接下来会是谁？
华尔街投资银行家们渴望将众多处于后期阶段、获得风险投资支持且拥有强大客户群体的科技公司推向公开市场。其中包括Databricks、Klarna、Stripe和SpaceX等多家市值高达数十亿美元的公司，它们多年来一直是IPO传闻的焦点。诚然，还有一批估值颇高的人工智能初创公司，从OpenAI和Anthropic，到埃隆·马斯克的xAI。
这些公司很可能继续成为焦点，但在Figma上市后我与数位投资者的交谈中，他们提到其他一些公司更可能率先上市，包括Canva、Revolut、Midjourney、Motive和安杜里尔工业公司（Anduril）。
“成功的IPO对所有人而言都是积极信号，”Forerunner Ventures创始人兼管理合伙人克里斯汀·格林（Kirsten Green）表示，该公司投资组合中的Chime近期已上市，并在首个交易日中股价上涨37%。（Forerunner还投资了上市公司Hims & Hers以及包括Oura在内的处于后期阶段的私营公司。） “我认为我们应当重新审视这一观点：IPO是进入公开市场的A轮融资——而这确实能成为人们愿意甚至渴望推动公司上市的动力。”（仿佛为了印证这一观点，医疗科技公司HeartFlow于8月1日提交了IPO的S-1文件，其估值达13亿美元。）
PitchBook美国风险投资研究主管凯尔·斯坦福（Kyle Stanford）指出，截至今年6月30日，仅有18家风险投资支持的公司成功上市。他认为，这既受政策不确定性导致的融资阻力影响，也与2021年过度融资现象持续抑制风险投资有关。“Figma有望打破僵局，但本季度进展相当缓慢。”他说道。
尽管Figma作为设计软件公司已实现盈利且拥有强大的集成人工智能能力，但斯坦福指出，这些特质并非IPO成功的必要条件。他认为投资者更希望公司能创造至少2亿美元的营收，维持高速增长态势，并优先考虑正自由现金流而非盈利能力。拥有人工智能相关的故事也“极为重要”，除非该公司增长迅猛且利润率极高。
多位受访投资者表示，Canva可能是最具说服力的案例，因为它是一家与Figma基本面相似的设计公司。设计协作公司Canva在18轮融资中成功筹集约5.89亿美元，估值达320亿美元，高于Figma IPO时的估值。“就Figma昨天的表现而言，Canva是大赢家，”Primary Ventures的投资者杰森·舒曼（Jason Shuman）表示。舒曼并非Canva的投资者，他指出，Canva年营收达30亿美元且年同比增长率达35%，这是其业务具备持久性的标志。
其他人也持相同观点。“在看到Figma的案例后，天啊，Canva必然会尽快寻求IPO。”Hedgeye Risk Management的董事总经理兼合伙人菲利克斯·王（Felix Wang）表示，他并非Canva的投资者。Canva在最近一次股票回购中估值达370亿美元，该公司未回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
王等人指出，Figma股价的飙升在很大程度上并非由其自身推动。相反，市场正处于历史高位，引发了散户投资者对新上市企业的投资需求。“他们甚至对这家公司一无所知，仅仅知道它是新上市的，”王谈及散户投资者投资 Figma 时说道。“他们会投入部分资金，更有趣的是：他们会在社交媒体上炫耀。”
Primary的舒曼认为，Figma之于Canva，就如同NuBank之于Revolut。他研究了金融科技公司NuBank，该公司自2025年初上市以来股价上涨约13%，他认为业务模式极为相似的Revolut可能会效仿其做法。Revolut在给《财富》杂志的一份声明中表示：“我们的重点不在于是否或何时进行IPO，而是持续拓展业务、开发新产品、并为不断增长的全球客户群提供更优质、更实惠的服务。”
Primary的舒曼还指出，另一家潜在的IPO候选公司是芯片制造商Cerebras。他投资于垂直人工智能、B2B、中小企业及金融和国防领域的公司，不过并未持有Cerebras或Revolut的股份。（Cerebras于2024年9月提交了S-1文件，但由于监管机构对阿联酋G42 3.35亿美元的投资存在顾虑，其IPO被推迟。据《The Information》报道，如今，该公司已获监管机构批准可公开上市，但因正在筹集10亿美元资金，暂缓了IPO计划。）
许多公司，包括规模最为庞大、最炙手可热的私营公司OpenAI（据《纽约时报》报道，其估值刚攀升至3000亿美元），都有强烈的动机维持私有化状态。这是因为它们能够避免因上市公司必须履行信息披露义务而受到公众监督，同时还能获得大量私人资本注入以维持资金流动性，而这往往是企业生存的关键。
然而，像OpenAI、Stripe（估值达910亿美元）以及SpaceX（估值高达4000亿美元）这样的巨头维持私有化状态，或许会给公开市场带来隐性成本。“我想从哲学角度谈谈，”Forerunner的格林表示。“公开市场的创立，部分初衷在于让更广泛的民众能够参与到经济当中，共享经济增长成果，而不是让财富集中在少数人手中。”
有一家巨头或许即将成为股市焦点。国防科技公司安杜里尔工业公司在G轮融资中获得了305亿美元的估值，由于其业务性质，该公司有理由维持私营状态。但Pitchbook的斯坦福预测，它将成为下一家进行IPO的科技公司。斯坦福认为，除了安杜里尔工业公司的首席执行官宣称其“必然”会上市之外，该公司的价值主张也是特朗普政府安全与国防领域工作重点的核心所在，这可能会使其成为投资者追捧的对象。
“除此之外，”他说，如今潜在IPO候选公司的名单很长：“可能还有约300家其他公司。”（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Figma’s sensational IPO last week resurrected longstanding debates about IPO pricing and first day pops—an unsurprising reaction to the newly listed stock’s 333% surge in its first days of trading. As investors dissect the offering (and as Figma’s stock settles back a bit, falling 27% on Monday), other key questions have emerged: Will Figma’s debut entice other startups to jump into the fray, bringing an end to the tech industry’s IPO drought? And if so, who’s next?
There’s a long list of late-stage VC-backed tech companies with strong customer bases that Wall Street investment bankers would love to take public. Many of these multi-billion dollar companies, including Databricks, Klarna, Stripe, and SpaceX, have been subjects of IPO speculation for years. And then of course, there’s the crop of richly valued AI startups, from OpenAI and Anthropic, to Elon Musk’s xAI.
Those companies will likely continue to be in the spotlight, but in conversations I had with several investors following Figma’s debut, other names came up as more likely to IPO sooner including Canva, Revolut, Midjourney, Motive, and Anduril.
“Having positive IPOs is a good signal for everybody,” says Kirsten Green, founder and managing partner at Forerunner Ventures, whose portfolio company Chime recently went public and experienced a 37% pop in stock price on its first day of trading. (Forerunner also has investments in public company Hims & Hers and late stage private companies including Oura.) “I believe we should revisit this idea: an IPO is the Series A of being in the public market–and having that really be a motivator to people’s willingness, and maybe even eagerness to go public.” (As if on cue, HeartFlow, a medical technology company, filed an S-1 for its IPO at a $1.3 billion valuation on August 1).
Kyle Stanford, the director of research on US venture capital at PitchBook, notes that just 18 venture-backed companies have gone public through June 30 of this year. This, he says, is a factor of policy uncertainties that translate to funding headwinds as well as the overfunding that occurred in 2021 that continues to stymie venture capital. “Figma hopefully starts to break the dam, but it’s been a pretty slow quarter,” he says.
Though Figma, which makes design software, is profitable and has a strong set of integrated AI capabilities, these qualities are not essential to companies bound for IPO success, says Stanford. He says that investors would prefer companies to generate a minimum of $200 million in revenue that grows at high rates and prioritize positive free cash flow over profitability. Having an AI story is also “very important,” unless the company is very high growth and profitable by wide margins.
Canva may be a most-compelling case since it’s a design company with similar fundamentals to that of Figma, said multiple investors I interviewed. Design collaboration company Canva has raised about $589 million over 18 rounds at a $32 billion valuation, higher than that of Figma’s at the time of its IPO. “Canva is a big winner when it comes to what happened yesterday with Figma,” says Jason Shuman, an investor at Primary Ventures. Shuman, who is not an investor in Canva, points to Canva’s $3 billion annual revenue and 35% year-over-year growth as signs of its business’ durability.
Others agree. “Canva—after looking at Figma, holy crap—they’re going to try to IPO as soon as possible,” says Felix Wang, Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, who is not a Canva investor. Canva, which was recently valued at $37 billion during a share buy back, did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
Wang and others note that the surge in Figma’s price is, in many ways, not actually driven by Figma. Rather, the market is at an all-time high, causing retail trader demand for companies new to market. “They don’t even know this company, but they know it’s a new company,” says Wang of retail traders investing in Figma. “They’re going to put some money into it, and then, more interestingly: they’re going to show it off on social media.”
As Figma is to Canva; NuBank is to Revolut, reasons Primary’s Shuman. He looks at fintech NuBank, which is up around 13% from its early 2025 IPO and thinks that Revolut, which has a very similar business model, could copycat. Revolut told Fortune in a statement: “our focus is not on if or when we IPO, but on continuing to expand the business, building new products, and providing better and cheaper services to serve our growing global customer base.”
Another potential IPO candidate in the near-future is chipmaker Cerebras, says Primary’s Shuman, who invests in vertical AI, B2B, SMB and finance and defense companies but has no stake in Cerebras or Revolut. (Cerebras filed an S-1 in September 2024 but its IPO was delayed by regulators concerned about a $335 million investment by UAE-based G42. Now, it’s been cleared by regulators for a public market listing, but the company has held off on an IPO as it fundraises $1 billion, reports The Information.)
Many companies, including the largest and hottest private company OpenAI (which just nabbed a $300 billion valuation, per the New York Times), have significant incentives to remain private. This is because they can avoid public scrutiny that arises from disclosures required of public companies and have access to significant private capital for liquidity infusions that are often essential.
Yet, the fact that behemoths like OpenAI, Stripe ($91 billion valuation) and SpaceX ($400 billion valuation) are private may even be a hidden cost for the public market. “I’m going to get philosophical,” says Forerunner’s Green. “Part of the public market was created so the broader population could participate in the economy and in the growth of the economy; it wasn’t meant to sit in a few people’s hands.”
One behemoth may be entering the stock market limelight. Anduril, the defense tech company that nabbed a $30.5 billion valuation on its Series G, has incentives to remain private due to the nature of its business. But Pitchbook’s Stanford predicts it to be the next tech IPO. In addition to Anduril’s CEO announcing it will “definitely” become publicly traded, its value proposition is core to Trump Administration priorities in security and defense, which could make it a hot pick for investors, Stanford reasons.
“Other than that,” he says the list of potential IPO candidates these days is long: “There’s probably about 300 other companies that it could be.”