牛奶从7美元飞涨到14美元，草莓变成奢侈品，人们被迫买加工食品……研究劳动力和农业的经济学家认为，这些都是未来六个月消费者将面临的情况。
然而消费者“根本不知道发生了什么”，得州农工大学布什政府与公共服务学院（Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government）劳动经济学家雷蒙德・罗伯逊告诉《财富》。他曾为美国多家机构提供贸易与劳工政策方面的建议。
罗伯逊说，特朗普政策引发的政治喧嚣分散了选民的注意力，而导致超市物价飙升的真正推手，包括劳动力短缺和关税等正持续产生更严重的影响。驱逐非法移民导致农田里人手减少，农场失去了“绝大多数”由无证工人构成的劳动力。与此同时，对番茄、咖啡、橙汁等日常食品新征收的关税推高进口成本，几乎没有便宜的替代品可供选择。
“影响是明确无疑的，”哈佛肯尼迪学院（Harvard Kennedy School）墨西哥贸易专家、经济学家戈登·汉森告诉《财富》，“相关商品价格面临上行压力。”
白宫未立即回应《财富》的置评请求。
汉森补充说，唯一的问题是农民、批发商和零售商承受的痛苦，最终都会体现在超市货架和消费者的购物车里。
冬季的食品价格寒潮
第一波涨价很可能在今冬袭来。罗伯逊预测，随着库存清空和新合同生效，到明年初农产品价格可能上涨50%至100%。而且与过去几十年不同，以往美国政府会悄悄放松边境执法以保证农田有足够劳动力，如今政治环境下不会再有类似“缓冲”措施。
“就像看着洪水袭来，海啸正在逼近，水位已经上涨了5厘米，”罗伯逊警告说。
劳动力短缺的根源在于，美国出生的工人根本不愿意按外籍无证工人的工资干体力活，罗伯逊解释道。无证工人摘草莓时薪大概18美元，而美国公民去冰淇淋店打工就能赚到同样工资。
要让美国公民去田里干活，“必须支付每小时25—30美元”，罗伯逊说，对大多数农业生产者来说这样的成本难以承受。
劳动力短缺已在实际中显现。在佛罗里达州的多佛，帕克斯代尔农场的马特・帕克告诉The Daily Adda，其家族企业严重依赖专门为外国农业劳动力提供支持的H-2A签证项目填补缺口。
然而经济学家表示，该计划规模太小且程序过于繁琐，不可能解决危机。汉森指出，尽管近年来H-2A计划有所扩张，外籍工人仍只占农场劳动力的“一小部分”。
“这一计划要大规模扩张，达到百万而不是几十万，才能满足美国的需求，”汉森说。
签证每个季度都会到期，农场需要为每个工人重复申请、提供住宿并负担交通费用。
“如想连续五年雇用同一名工人，就得办五次签证，”汉森补充道。
罗伯逊表示同意，但他认为特朗普政府完全可以利用人脸识别等安全技术，将H-2A计划大幅扩容。
“他们就是不做，真让人抓狂，”罗伯逊说。
关税双重夹击
过去在美国作物歉收时，进口还能作为补充，现在也无法缓解问题了。墨西哥可全年种植牛油果、番茄等作物，然而特朗普的关税导致这些农作物更昂贵。
“墨西哥的牛油果产量比美国多得多，”汉森说，“这不是说现在种几棵牛油果树，明年就能收获。”
他还表示，大概六个月后，消费者就会感受到关税冲击。
“消费者不会看到关税对产品价格的全面影响，但至少能感受到50%。”
对消费者而言，驱逐非法移民与关税的“双重夹击”可能很快会改变购物方式。经济学家警告，果蔬和乳制品受到的影响最大，很多家庭将被迫购买更便宜的加工食品。
“随着蔬菜价格一路飙升，人们只能转向高热量的深度加工食品，最终对健康造成负面影响，”罗伯逊说。
在汉森看来，政策制定者唯一能做的就是鼓励“降低关税”。
“原因很简单，”罗伯逊说，“如果能让更多合法的农业工人流入并降低关税，消费者的境况就会变好。其他试图弥补现有政策损害的政策都没有意义。”
类似争论并不是新鲜事。1950年代以来，关税与移民问题一直是美国周期性政治斗争的话题，当前局面只是冲突的“极端表现”。历史经验表明，一旦价格飙升，选民就会迫使立法者采取行动。“现在特朗普还向国会施压，要求对移民保持强硬立场。等到接近中期选举，消费者抗议物价飞涨时，强硬路线就会开始松动，”他解释道。
“政治就是这么回事，”汉森说。（*）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
牛奶从7美元飞涨到14美元，草莓变成奢侈品，人们被迫买加工食品……研究劳动力和农业的经济学家认为，这些都是未来六个月消费者将面临的情况。
然而消费者“根本不知道发生了什么”，得州农工大学布什政府与公共服务学院（Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government）劳动经济学家雷蒙德・罗伯逊告诉《财富》。他曾为美国多家机构提供贸易与劳工政策方面的建议。
罗伯逊说，特朗普政策引发的政治喧嚣分散了选民的注意力，而导致超市物价飙升的真正推手，包括劳动力短缺和关税等正持续产生更严重的影响。驱逐非法移民导致农田里人手减少，农场失去了“绝大多数”由无证工人构成的劳动力。与此同时，对番茄、咖啡、橙汁等日常食品新征收的关税推高进口成本，几乎没有便宜的替代品可供选择。
“影响是明确无疑的，”哈佛肯尼迪学院（Harvard Kennedy School）墨西哥贸易专家、经济学家戈登·汉森告诉《财富》，“相关商品价格面临上行压力。”
白宫未立即回应《财富》的置评请求。
汉森补充说，唯一的问题是农民、批发商和零售商承受的痛苦，最终都会体现在超市货架和消费者的购物车里。
冬季的食品价格寒潮
第一波涨价很可能在今冬袭来。罗伯逊预测，随着库存清空和新合同生效，到明年初农产品价格可能上涨50%至100%。而且与过去几十年不同，以往美国政府会悄悄放松边境执法以保证农田有足够劳动力，如今政治环境下不会再有类似“缓冲”措施。
“就像看着洪水袭来，海啸正在逼近，水位已经上涨了5厘米，”罗伯逊警告说。
劳动力短缺的根源在于，美国出生的工人根本不愿意按外籍无证工人的工资干体力活，罗伯逊解释道。无证工人摘草莓时薪大概18美元，而美国公民去冰淇淋店打工就能赚到同样工资。
要让美国公民去田里干活，“必须支付每小时25—30美元”，罗伯逊说，对大多数农业生产者来说这样的成本难以承受。
劳动力短缺已在实际中显现。在佛罗里达州的多佛，帕克斯代尔农场的马特・帕克告诉The Daily Adda，其家族企业严重依赖专门为外国农业劳动力提供支持的H-2A签证项目填补缺口。
然而经济学家表示，该计划规模太小且程序过于繁琐，不可能解决危机。汉森指出，尽管近年来H-2A计划有所扩张，外籍工人仍只占农场劳动力的“一小部分”。
“这一计划要大规模扩张，达到百万而不是几十万，才能满足美国的需求，”汉森说。
签证每个季度都会到期，农场需要为每个工人重复申请、提供住宿并负担交通费用。
“如想连续五年雇用同一名工人，就得办五次签证，”汉森补充道。
罗伯逊表示同意，但他认为特朗普政府完全可以利用人脸识别等安全技术，将H-2A计划大幅扩容。
“他们就是不做，真让人抓狂，”罗伯逊说。
关税双重夹击
过去在美国作物歉收时，进口还能作为补充，现在也无法缓解问题了。墨西哥可全年种植牛油果、番茄等作物，然而特朗普的关税导致这些农作物更昂贵。
“墨西哥的牛油果产量比美国多得多，”汉森说，“这不是说现在种几棵牛油果树，明年就能收获。”
他还表示，大概六个月后，消费者就会感受到关税冲击。
“消费者不会看到关税对产品价格的全面影响，但至少能感受到50%。”
对消费者而言，驱逐非法移民与关税的“双重夹击”可能很快会改变购物方式。经济学家警告，果蔬和乳制品受到的影响最大，很多家庭将被迫购买更便宜的加工食品。
“随着蔬菜价格一路飙升，人们只能转向高热量的深度加工食品，最终对健康造成负面影响，”罗伯逊说。
在汉森看来，政策制定者唯一能做的就是鼓励“降低关税”。
“原因很简单，”罗伯逊说，“如果能让更多合法的农业工人流入并降低关税，消费者的境况就会变好。其他试图弥补现有政策损害的政策都没有意义。”
类似争论并不是新鲜事。1950年代以来，关税与移民问题一直是美国周期性政治斗争的话题，当前局面只是冲突的“极端表现”。历史经验表明，一旦价格飙升，选民就会迫使立法者采取行动。“现在特朗普还向国会施压，要求对移民保持强硬立场。等到接近中期选举，消费者抗议物价飞涨时，强硬路线就会开始松动，”他解释道。
“政治就是这么回事，”汉森说。（*）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
Milk prices jumping from $7 to $14, strawberries that feel like luxury goods, and a switch to processed food: This is the six-month outlook economists studying labor and agriculture see for consumers.
Yet these consumers “don’t have a clue what’s going on,” Raymond Robertson, a labor economist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government who has advised U.S. agencies on trade and labor policy, told Fortune.
Instead, Robertson said, voters are distracted by the political noise of President Donald Trump’s policies, while the real drivers of grocery sticker shock—labor shortages and tariffs—continue to tighten their grip. Deportations have thinned fields and stripped farms of undocumented workers, who “overwhelmingly” make up the agricultural workforce. At the same time, new tariffs on staples like tomatoes, coffee, and orange juice are pushing up costs on imports, leaving few affordable alternatives.
“The impacts are unambiguous,” Gordon Hanson, an economist and expert on Mexican trade at Harvard Kennedy School, told Fortune. “It’s upward pressure on those prices.“
The White House did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
The only question, Hanson added, is how much of the pain farmers, wholesalers, and retailers can absorb before it lands on the grocery aisles and in consumers’ carts.
Winter grocery chill
The first wave of grocery-price increases will likely hit this winter. Roberson predicted produce prices could rise 50% to 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts kick in. And unlike past decades, when Washington would quietly ease border enforcement to keep fields staffed, today’s political environment suggests no such check.
“This is like when you see a flood coming, the tsunami is coming in, and the water’s gone up two inches,” Robertson warned.
The reason for the labor shortage is American-born workers simply do not want to do manual work at the wages typically offered to foreign-born, undocumented workers, Robertson said. Undocumented workers are used to getting paid around $18 an hour to pick strawberries—the type of wage American citizens can get working at an ice cream shop.
You would have to pay American citizens “$25 to $30 an hour” to get them in the fields, Robertson said, an unfeasible cost for most agricultural producers.
The shortage is already visible on the ground. In Dover, Fla., Matt Parke of Parkesdale Farms told The Daily Adda his family business is leaning heavily on the H-2A visa program—designed particularly to support foreign agricultural labor—to fill the gaps.
Economists, however, say the program is too small and too cumbersome to solve the crisis on its own. Hanson noted while H-2A has expanded in recent years, guest workers still account for “a small fraction of the total” farm labor force.
“It would have to be much, much larger, in the millions rather than the hundreds of thousands, to meet U.S. demand,” Hanson said.
The visas also expire each season, requiring repeated applications, housing, and transportation costs for every worker.
“If you want to hire that same worker five years in a row, you have to get five different visas,” Hanson added.
Robertson agreed, but thought the Trump administration could easily expand the H-2A program dramatically to meet the capacity, especially given the innovations of facial recognition technology and other security measures.
“It blows my mind that they don’t do this,” Robertson said.
Tariffs creating a double bind
Imports, once a fallback when U.S. crops ran short, can no longer offer relief. Mexico has a structural advantage in crops like avocados and tomatoes—growing the crops year-round—but Trump’s tariffs have made them more expensive by default.
“Mexico produces way more avocados than we do,” Hanson said. “It’s not like you can plant new avocado trees and get an additional crop next year.”
Hanson also said shoppers will feel the tariffs in about six months.
“Consumers are not going to see the full pass-through of the tariffs to product prices, but they’re likely to see at least 50%.”
For consumers, the double bind of deportations and tariffs could soon reshape grocery shopping. Economists warn produce and dairy are most exposed, and many families will be forced to trade down to cheaper, processed foods.
“As vegetables [prices] keep going up and up, people will just substitute towards these very hot, ultra-processed foods, which ultimately will have adverse effects on their health,” Robertson said.
The only thing policymakers could do, in Hanson’s mind, is encourage “lower tariffs.”
“It’s simple,” Hanson said. “If we were able to create larger flows of legal farmworkers and lower tariffs, consumers are going to be better off. Any other policy that tries to undo the damages of an existing policy makes no sense.”
These fights aren’t new, he said. Tariffs and immigration are topics the U.S. has had periodic political battles about since the 1950s, and today’s environment is a “very intense manifestation” of those conflicts. But history shows that once prices spike, voters force lawmakers’ hands. Now, Trump is pressuring Congress to maintain a hard line on immigration. But then you get closer to midterm elections, and consumers are lashing out against higher prices, and your hard line begins to weaken, he explained.
“That’s just kind of how politics work,” Hanson said.