• 穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）首席经济学家马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）此前就曾发出“就业衰退”风险预警。他表示，上月美国经济新增就业岗位几乎为零，且多数行业实际上处于裁员状态；若非医疗保健与酒店服务业的就业增长，今年美国就业市场根本毫无增长可言。
美国劳动力市场的关键指标表明其状况正持续恶化，而医疗保健行业是为数不多能阻止形势进一步恶化的领域。
最新就业报告显示，8月美国经济仅新增2.2万个就业岗位，且此前数月的数据经修正后显示，6月实际就业岗位有所减少。与此同时，失业率小幅攀升至四年高点4.3%。
阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo Global Management）首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克 （Torsten Sløk）在上周六发布的报告中指出，受关税影响行业的就业增长呈负增长态势，仅制造业上个月就裁减了12000名员工。
反观医疗保健与社会援助行业新增4.68万个岗位，休闲酒店业新增2.8万个岗位。穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出，今年以来，这两个行业始终是就业增长的“中流砥柱”，这一趋势令人忧虑。
“美国当前疲软的就业市场最令人不安之处，在于其微弱的就业增长几乎完全依赖医疗保健和酒店业。”赞迪上周日在社交平台X上写道，“今年年初至今，美国经济仅新增60万个就业岗位，倘若没有这两个行业的贡献，就业增长将为零。”
美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）数据显示，今年年初至今，医疗保健与社会援助行业及休闲酒店业新增就业岗位合计达85.59万个。这意味着，若剔除这两个行业的贡献，美国经济实际上将减少超25万个就业岗位。
赞迪还指出，过去六个月里，美国劳工统计局追踪的行业中，实现就业增长的还不到一半，并补充道：“这种情况只会在经济衰退时出现”。
就业报告中的扩散指数用于衡量增长的集中程度。读数低于50意味着裁员行业数量多于新增就业行业数量。8月份该指数为49.6，三个月均值为47.9。
“就业衰退”
赞迪持续为经济状况敲响警钟。上月，在7月就业报告呈现出令人震惊的惨淡态势后，他便警告称“经济正处于衰退边缘”，并指出消费疲软及建筑制造业萎缩问题。
上周五8月就业报告发布后，赞迪对《财富》杂志记者伊娃·罗伊特堡（Eva Roytburg）表示，美国经济已处于衰退边缘，甚至可能已陷入衰退。
他特别强调，对6月数据的修正（显示就业岗位减少了1.3万个）意义重大——因为经济衰退时间的界定，通常以就业岗位首次出现减少的月份为起点。
与此同时，美国劳工统计局数据显示，过去一年长期失业人数小幅上升，目前劳动力市场之外希望就业的人数已增至600万以上，而大约一年前这一数字约为570万。
赞迪对《财富》杂志表示：“这确实像就业衰退。就业市场停滞甚至萎缩。尽管产出和收入仍在增长，但经济极其脆弱。只要再出现任何问题，就可能把我们推向全面衰退。”
当然，目前美国经济仍处于正增长区间：第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长3.3%，亚特兰大联邦储备银行的国内生产总值追踪模型显示，第三季度国内生产总值增速有望达到3%。
上周日早些时候，记者就赞迪提出的“就业衰退”言论向财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）提问，寻求回应。
在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）《与媒体见面》节目主持人克里斯汀·韦尔克采访时，贝森特表示现行政策将创造优质高薪就业岗位。贝森特还称，历年8月采集的就业数据往往都会出现大幅修正的情况，并指责美联储未能更早实施降息举措。
“特朗普总统当选的核心要义在于推动变革，我们将推行能让经济重回正轨的政策。我相信到第四季度，我们将会看到经济增长大幅提速。”贝森特预测道。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
• 穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）首席经济学家马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）此前就曾发出“就业衰退”风险预警。他表示，上月美国经济新增就业岗位几乎为零，且多数行业实际上处于裁员状态；若非医疗保健与酒店服务业的就业增长，今年美国就业市场根本毫无增长可言。
美国劳动力市场的关键指标表明其状况正持续恶化，而医疗保健行业是为数不多能阻止形势进一步恶化的领域。
最新就业报告显示，8月美国经济仅新增2.2万个就业岗位，且此前数月的数据经修正后显示，6月实际就业岗位有所减少。与此同时，失业率小幅攀升至四年高点4.3%。
阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo Global Management）首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克 （Torsten Sløk）在上周六发布的报告中指出，受关税影响行业的就业增长呈负增长态势，仅制造业上个月就裁减了12000名员工。
反观医疗保健与社会援助行业新增4.68万个岗位，休闲酒店业新增2.8万个岗位。穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出，今年以来，这两个行业始终是就业增长的“中流砥柱”，这一趋势令人忧虑。
“美国当前疲软的就业市场最令人不安之处，在于其微弱的就业增长几乎完全依赖医疗保健和酒店业。”赞迪上周日在社交平台X上写道，“今年年初至今，美国经济仅新增60万个就业岗位，倘若没有这两个行业的贡献，就业增长将为零。”
美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）数据显示，今年年初至今，医疗保健与社会援助行业及休闲酒店业新增就业岗位合计达85.59万个。这意味着，若剔除这两个行业的贡献，美国经济实际上将减少超25万个就业岗位。
赞迪还指出，过去六个月里，美国劳工统计局追踪的行业中，实现就业增长的还不到一半，并补充道：“这种情况只会在经济衰退时出现”。
就业报告中的扩散指数用于衡量增长的集中程度。读数低于50意味着裁员行业数量多于新增就业行业数量。8月份该指数为49.6，三个月均值为47.9。
“就业衰退”
赞迪持续为经济状况敲响警钟。上月，在7月就业报告呈现出令人震惊的惨淡态势后，他便警告称“经济正处于衰退边缘”，并指出消费疲软及建筑制造业萎缩问题。
上周五8月就业报告发布后，赞迪对《财富》杂志记者伊娃·罗伊特堡（Eva Roytburg）表示，美国经济已处于衰退边缘，甚至可能已陷入衰退。
他特别强调，对6月数据的修正（显示就业岗位减少了1.3万个）意义重大——因为经济衰退时间的界定，通常以就业岗位首次出现减少的月份为起点。
与此同时，美国劳工统计局数据显示，过去一年长期失业人数小幅上升，目前劳动力市场之外希望就业的人数已增至600万以上，而大约一年前这一数字约为570万。
赞迪对《财富》杂志表示：“这确实像就业衰退。就业市场停滞甚至萎缩。尽管产出和收入仍在增长，但经济极其脆弱。只要再出现任何问题，就可能把我们推向全面衰退。”
当然，目前美国经济仍处于正增长区间：第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长3.3%，亚特兰大联邦储备银行的国内生产总值追踪模型显示，第三季度国内生产总值增速有望达到3%。
上周日早些时候，记者就赞迪提出的“就业衰退”言论向财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）提问，寻求回应。
在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）《与媒体见面》节目主持人克里斯汀·韦尔克采访时，贝森特表示现行政策将创造优质高薪就业岗位。贝森特还称，历年8月采集的就业数据往往都会出现大幅修正的情况，并指责美联储未能更早实施降息举措。
“特朗普总统当选的核心要义在于推动变革，我们将推行能让经济重回正轨的政策。我相信到第四季度，我们将会看到经济增长大幅提速。”贝森特预测道。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
• The U.S. economy barely added any jobs last month, and the majority of industries are actually shedding workers. Without gains in the healthcare and hospitality sectors, there would have been no growth in payrolls this year, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, who previously warned of a “jobs recession.”
Vital signs for the labor market indicate that it’s getting sicker, and the healthcare sector is one of the few that is keep it from looking even worse.
The latest jobs report revealed the U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August with revisions to prior months showing June actually saw a decline. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to a four-year high of 4.3%.
In a note on Saturday, Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, observed that job growth in tariff-impacted sectors is negative. Manufacturers alone cut 12,000 workers last month.
By contrast, the health care and social assistance sectors added 46,800 jobs, while the leisure and hospitality industry added 28,000. In fact, they have been doing the heavy lifting throughout the year, a trend that concerns Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“What’s perhaps most disconcerting about the flagging job market is how dependent it is on healthcare and hospitality for what little job growth is occurring,” he wrote on X on Sunday. “Since the beginning of the year, the economy has created a paltry 600k jobs, but without the job growth in these industries, there would be zero job growth.”
The year-to-date gains of the health care and social assistance sectors plus the leisure and hospitality industry total 855,900, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, meaning the economy would actually be in the hole by more than 250,000 jobs if not for those groups.
Zandi also pointed out that less than half of the industries tracked by BLS have added to payrolls over the past six months, adding that “this only happens when the economy is in recession.”
The diffusion index in the jobs report gauges the concentration of growth. A reading below 50 means more industries cut jobs than added. In August, it was 49.6, and the three-month average was 47.9.
‘Jobs recession’
Zandi has been steadily ringing alarms bells on the economy. Last month, after the shockingly bad July jobs report, he warned that “the economy is on the precipice of recession,” pointing to weak consumer spending and shrinkage in construction and manufacturing.
After the August jobs report was released on Friday, Zandi told Fortune’s Eva Roytburg that the economy is on the edge of recession and may already be in one.
He called the revision to June, which showed a loss of 13,000 jobs, especially significant as downturns are typically dated back to the first month of payroll declines.
Meanwhile, long-term unemployment has ticked higher over the past year, and more than 6 million people outside the labor force now say they want a job, up from roughly 5.7 million about a year ago, according to the BLS.
“This really feels like a jobs recession,” Zandi told Fortune. “Employment is flat to down. Output and incomes are still growing, but the economy is incredibly vulnerable. Nothing else can go wrong, or it could tip us into a full downturn.”
To be sure, the economy remains in positive territory for now. GDP expanded by 3.3% in the second quarter, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker shows the third quarter is on pace for a 3% increase.
Earlier on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked to respond to Zandi’s jobs recession comment.
In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press with Kristen Welker, he said policies are in place that will create good, high-paying jobs. Bessent also said payroll data collected in August has historically been prone to big revisions later, and he blamed the Federal Reserve for not cutting rates sooner.
“President Trump was elected for change, and we are going to push through with the economic policies that are going to set the economy right. I believe by the fourth quarter, we’re going to see a substantial acceleration,” he predicted.