本周，强生（Johnson & Johnson）旗下消费者健康子公司科赴（Kenvue）成为市场风暴中心。起因是《华尔街日报》报道称，小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪计划将孕期服用泰诺的行为与自闭症的发生联系起来。肯尼迪长期宣扬与自闭症成因有关的、毫无科学依据的观点。由于肯尼迪现任美国卫生与公众服务部（U.S. Department of Health & Human Services）部长且领导“让美国再次健康”（MAHA）运动，因此受此消息影响，科赴股价随之暴跌。《华尔街日报》的报道发布后，科赴股价盘中跌幅一度逼近15%，随后虽略有回升，但市值仍蒸发约9%。
华尔街分析师们却持不同意见，他们重申科赴基本面稳健，认为这是一次逢低买入的良机。美银证券（BofA Securities）与Canaccord Genuity等机构在周一晨间向客户发布的研报中，均鼓励投资者将此次股价下跌视为买入良机，而不是将其解读为科赴业务面临持续性严重威胁的佐证。
缺乏实证，MAHA内部反应不一
Canaccord分析师在报告中指出，鉴于类似集体侵权诉讼已于2023年12月“基本被驳回”，该行认为科赴面临的法律风险极低。该行同时援引美国卫生与公众服务部的声明，强调所有关于肯尼迪报告的论断均属推测。该行称此次市场抛售是一次“严重的过度反应”，并补充说其认为“尚无权威研究证实使用对乙酰氨基酚与自闭症谱系障碍风险增加之间存在关联”。即便存在舆情风险，科赴最多也只会流失小部分消费者，而非面临数十亿美元赔偿裁决。
该行还通过监测多个社交媒体平台（其中包括更有可能支持肯尼迪MAHA运动的平台）的评论来追踪舆情走向。该行指出，主流平台普遍不认同相关指控，即便在“边缘平台”上，舆论也呈现分化态势——部分评论强调这种论调缺乏实证，另一些人则热衷于传播疫苗致自闭症等其他未经证实的阴谋论。
巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）分析师周五指出，鉴于此前多项裁决均认定泰诺的安全性，包括美国食品药品管理局（FDA）声明未发现对乙酰氨基酚与发育风险存在明确关联的证据，以及美国妇产科医师学会（American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists）的类似建议，证实这种药品与自闭症发生之间存在关联的可能性极低。不过美国食品药品管理局确实建议孕妇在用药前咨询医生。
缺乏确凿证据
尽管科赴仍面临多起诉讼，但联邦法官迄今认定，将孕期使用对乙酰氨基酚与自闭症或注意缺陷多动障碍关联起来的科学证据并不充分，已驳回多起备受瞩目的案件。
科赴坚决否认其存在任何不当行为，并强调监管机构已就该药物的安全性达成共识。该公司在给BBC的声明中表示：“我们持续评估相关科学证据，始终坚信孕期服用对乙酰氨基酚与自闭症之间并不存在因果关系。”但华尔街并未忽视这种不确定性。多份研报指出，若争议持续发酵，可能推高科赴的法律费用与公关成本。
对密切关注此事的人而言，华尔街的整体反应揭示了医疗争议在公开市场中的演变规律。虽然舆情风险可能冲击股价，但分析师的精准评估往往能迅速恢复市场理性，甚至在某些情况下催生股价反弹。就目前而言，专业分析机构认为，至少在现阶段，科赴所经历的泰诺风波更像是市场噪音而非实质性风险信号。（*）
《财富》杂志为本文使用了生成式AI协助起草初稿，编辑已在发表前核实信息的准确性。
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
本周，强生（Johnson & Johnson）旗下消费者健康子公司科赴（Kenvue）成为市场风暴中心。起因是《华尔街日报》报道称，小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪计划将孕期服用泰诺的行为与自闭症的发生联系起来。肯尼迪长期宣扬与自闭症成因有关的、毫无科学依据的观点。由于肯尼迪现任美国卫生与公众服务部（U.S. Department of Health & Human Services）部长且领导“让美国再次健康”（MAHA）运动，因此受此消息影响，科赴股价随之暴跌。《华尔街日报》的报道发布后，科赴股价盘中跌幅一度逼近15%，随后虽略有回升，但市值仍蒸发约9%。
华尔街分析师们却持不同意见，他们重申科赴基本面稳健，认为这是一次逢低买入的良机。美银证券（BofA Securities）与Canaccord Genuity等机构在周一晨间向客户发布的研报中，均鼓励投资者将此次股价下跌视为买入良机，而不是将其解读为科赴业务面临持续性严重威胁的佐证。
缺乏实证，MAHA内部反应不一
Canaccord分析师在报告中指出，鉴于类似集体侵权诉讼已于2023年12月“基本被驳回”，该行认为科赴面临的法律风险极低。该行同时援引美国卫生与公众服务部的声明，强调所有关于肯尼迪报告的论断均属推测。该行称此次市场抛售是一次“严重的过度反应”，并补充说其认为“尚无权威研究证实使用对乙酰氨基酚与自闭症谱系障碍风险增加之间存在关联”。即便存在舆情风险，科赴最多也只会流失小部分消费者，而非面临数十亿美元赔偿裁决。
该行还通过监测多个社交媒体平台（其中包括更有可能支持肯尼迪MAHA运动的平台）的评论来追踪舆情走向。该行指出，主流平台普遍不认同相关指控，即便在“边缘平台”上，舆论也呈现分化态势——部分评论强调这种论调缺乏实证，另一些人则热衷于传播疫苗致自闭症等其他未经证实的阴谋论。
巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）分析师周五指出，鉴于此前多项裁决均认定泰诺的安全性，包括美国食品药品管理局（FDA）声明未发现对乙酰氨基酚与发育风险存在明确关联的证据，以及美国妇产科医师学会（American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists）的类似建议，证实这种药品与自闭症发生之间存在关联的可能性极低。不过美国食品药品管理局确实建议孕妇在用药前咨询医生。
缺乏确凿证据
尽管科赴仍面临多起诉讼，但联邦法官迄今认定，将孕期使用对乙酰氨基酚与自闭症或注意缺陷多动障碍关联起来的科学证据并不充分，已驳回多起备受瞩目的案件。
科赴坚决否认其存在任何不当行为，并强调监管机构已就该药物的安全性达成共识。该公司在给BBC的声明中表示：“我们持续评估相关科学证据，始终坚信孕期服用对乙酰氨基酚与自闭症之间并不存在因果关系。”但华尔街并未忽视这种不确定性。多份研报指出，若争议持续发酵，可能推高科赴的法律费用与公关成本。
对密切关注此事的人而言，华尔街的整体反应揭示了医疗争议在公开市场中的演变规律。虽然舆情风险可能冲击股价，但分析师的精准评估往往能迅速恢复市场理性，甚至在某些情况下催生股价反弹。就目前而言，专业分析机构认为，至少在现阶段，科赴所经历的泰诺风波更像是市场噪音而非实质性风险信号。（*）
《财富》杂志为本文使用了生成式AI协助起草初稿，编辑已在发表前核实信息的准确性。
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
This week, Kenvue, the consumer health spin-off from Johnson & Johnson, found itself at the epicenter of a market tempest this week. It began when The Wall Street Journal reported Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime promoter of scientifically baseless causes for autism, planned to link Tylenol use during pregnancy to the condition. A stock rout ensued, since Kennedy is secretary of the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services and leads the “Make America Healthy Again” movement, or MAHA. An intraday slump neared 15% at one point after the Journal‘s report before retreating, but roughly 9% has still been wiped off Kenvue’s market cap.
A chorus of Wall Street analysts beg to differ, reaffirming Kenvue’s fundamental resilience and seeing this as an opportunity to buy the dip. In notes distributed to clients Monday morning, firms such as BofA Securities and Canaccord Genuity encouraged investors to view the sell-off as a buying opportunity rather than confirmation of a deep and lasting threat to Kenvue’s business.
No proof, even a mixed MAHA reaction
Canaccord analysts wrote the bank believes the legal risk is minimal given that a mass tort lawsuit on similar claims “was essentially shut down” in December 2023. The bank also noted a statement from HHS that any claims about Kennedy’s report were speculation. Calling the market sell-off a “major overreaction,” it added that it sees “no reputable study [that] has linked acetaminophen use to increased risk of [autism spectrum disorder].” The headline risk, if any, is losing a small segment of consumers rather than a multibillion-dollar verdict.
Canaccord also monitored public sentiment by reading comments across multiple social media formats, including those more likely to support Kennedy’s MAHA movement. Mainstream channels finds no acceptance of these claims, while even “more fringe” sources produce “mixed sentiment” with indicating there is still no proof, and others vocal about other seeming conspiracy theories, such as that vaccines cause autism—also unproven, the bank notes.
Analysts at BNP Paribas said Friday proving a link to autism remains unlikely given prior rulings that Tylenol is safe, including the FDA saying it hasn’t found clear evidence tying acetaminophen to developmental risks, and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists making a similar recommendation. The FDA does advise pregnant women to check with their doctors about using it, though.
No smoking gun
Despite ongoing lawsuits, federal judges have so far found the scientific evidence linking acetaminophen use in pregnancy to autism or ADHD to be inconclusive, leading to the dismissal of several high-profile cases.
Kenvue itself has forcefully denied any wrongdoing and highlighted the regulatory consensus. In a statement to the BBC, the company said, “We have continuously evaluated the science and continue to believe there is no causal link between acetaminophen use during pregnancy and autism.” Still, the uncertainty isn’t lost on Wall Street. Several notes flagged the potential for elevated legal expenses and PR costs if the controversy drags out.
For those watching closely, the reaction across Wall Street offers an important lesson in how medical controversies play out in public markets. While headline risk may rattle stocks, nuanced assessment from analysts can quickly restore perspective and, in some cases, spark recovery. As it stands, Kenvue’s Tylenol saga appears to be more noise than signal—at least for now, according to those paid to know.
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.