数周前，泡泡玛特创始人王宁凭借兔耳毛绒玩具拉布布坐拥270亿美元净资产，身价一度超越硅谷传奇人物彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）。这款造型“丑萌”的玩偶曾被大卫·贝克汉姆（David Beckham）、BLACKPINK成员丽莎（Lisa）等一众名人争相展示，转售价格被炒至令人咋舌的高位。
然而一旦那些“潮流猎手”兴趣转移，华尔街也会转投其他领域，王宁正为此付出高昂代价。
自8月26日泡泡玛特股价触及峰值以来，其股票已暴跌约20%，市值缩水130亿美元——相当于公司整体价值的四分之一——这场狂热已显露疲态。这家总部设于北京的玩具制造商，其港股在本周一持续下挫，单日最大跌幅达9%，创下自4月美国公布“解放日”关税以来的最大单日跌幅。
据《福布斯》估算，自8月下旬以来，王宁个人净资产已蒸发60亿美元。
此次股价暴跌之前，周一摩根大通下调了泡泡玛特评级，分析师警告称，鉴于该公司股价在过去一年里飙升了427%，其估值“几乎没有容错空间”。
泡泡玛特没有立即回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
从狂热到衰退
2024年大部分时间及2025年年初，泡泡玛特一度成为恒生指数的宠儿——其拉布布玩偶在亚洲掀起抢购热潮。但这种通过人为制造稀缺性而炒作起来的玩具（拉布布玩偶以收集难度极高著称，且在二手交易市场和仿冒市场中颇为活跃）难以长久维持热度。
康奈尔大学社交媒体研究员、传播学教授布鲁克·达菲（Brook Duffy）向《财富》杂志表示：“这一发展脉络完美契合潮流必经的生命周期——从悄然兴起，到逐渐饱和，直至最终消退。当外界对潮流的关注超出合理边界，其社交价值便会立即贬损。”
她将拉布布的兴衰类比为上世纪90年代“搔痒娃娃”掀起的热潮：最初一物难求、难觅踪影，继而以铺天盖地之势充斥市场，最终沦为过时玩物。
泡泡玛特目前仍保持迅猛增长态势，尚未出现逆转迹象。过去两年其销售额激增，2024年营收实现了不止翻倍的飞跃，2025年上半年营收再度攀升200%。
但疲态初现：拉布布收藏品转售价格下滑，分析师担忧公司仍过度依赖单一产品。
达菲解释道：“对Z世代而言，明星的炫耀堪称转折点。原本稀缺的物品，瞬间让人觉得充斥着浓厚的商业气息。”
摩根大通分析师在下调泡泡玛特评级时也表达了类似质疑，他们将目标价从400港元调降至300港元。摩根大通称，虽然泡泡玛特上半年盈利状况良好，且与优衣库等品牌的合作也达到了预期，但包括拉布布动画系列和互动玩具产品线在内的后续项目，目前仍带有明显的投机性质。
换言之，泡泡玛特正沦为自身成功的牺牲品。在过去一年股价飙升五倍后，哪怕是转售价格疲软或产品质量传闻这类小插曲，都可能引发大规模抛售。曾经看似锐不可当的增长传奇，如今看起来更像是一场高风险博弈。
持久力考验
核心问题在于，拉布布能否在热潮退去后实现“软着陆”，从一时风潮蜕变为持久品牌。
达菲表示：“新鲜感终将消退，只是我们无法预知具体何时到来。这种不可预测性让营销人员夜不能寐。”
泡泡玛特正押注扩张战略，计划年底前在海外开设200家门店及自动售货机“机器人商店”，目标是到2027年让海外市场贡献60%的收益。目前拉布布单品仍占销售额三分之一以上。
不过维持文化影响力远比扩大零售规模艰难得多。
达菲说：“当下正处于关键转折点。在社交媒体时代，热度周期推进速度极快。昨日风靡全球的事物，今日可能已因过度曝光而失去魅力。”
对王宁而言，时间紧迫：得设法让拉布布保持新鲜感，否则这个价值数十亿美元的吉祥物恐将沦为玩具箱里的过时玩物。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
数周前，泡泡玛特创始人王宁凭借兔耳毛绒玩具拉布布坐拥270亿美元净资产，身价一度超越硅谷传奇人物彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）。这款造型“丑萌”的玩偶曾被大卫·贝克汉姆（David Beckham）、BLACKPINK成员丽莎（Lisa）等一众名人争相展示，转售价格被炒至令人咋舌的高位。
然而一旦那些“潮流猎手”兴趣转移，华尔街也会转投其他领域，王宁正为此付出高昂代价。
自8月26日泡泡玛特股价触及峰值以来，其股票已暴跌约20%，市值缩水130亿美元——相当于公司整体价值的四分之一——这场狂热已显露疲态。这家总部设于北京的玩具制造商，其港股在本周一持续下挫，单日最大跌幅达9%，创下自4月美国公布“解放日”关税以来的最大单日跌幅。
据《福布斯》估算，自8月下旬以来，王宁个人净资产已蒸发60亿美元。
此次股价暴跌之前，周一摩根大通下调了泡泡玛特评级，分析师警告称，鉴于该公司股价在过去一年里飙升了427%，其估值“几乎没有容错空间”。
泡泡玛特没有立即回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
从狂热到衰退
2024年大部分时间及2025年年初，泡泡玛特一度成为恒生指数的宠儿——其拉布布玩偶在亚洲掀起抢购热潮。但这种通过人为制造稀缺性而炒作起来的玩具（拉布布玩偶以收集难度极高著称，且在二手交易市场和仿冒市场中颇为活跃）难以长久维持热度。
康奈尔大学社交媒体研究员、传播学教授布鲁克·达菲（Brook Duffy）向《财富》杂志表示：“这一发展脉络完美契合潮流必经的生命周期——从悄然兴起，到逐渐饱和，直至最终消退。当外界对潮流的关注超出合理边界，其社交价值便会立即贬损。”
她将拉布布的兴衰类比为上世纪90年代“搔痒娃娃”掀起的热潮：最初一物难求、难觅踪影，继而以铺天盖地之势充斥市场，最终沦为过时玩物。
泡泡玛特目前仍保持迅猛增长态势，尚未出现逆转迹象。过去两年其销售额激增，2024年营收实现了不止翻倍的飞跃，2025年上半年营收再度攀升200%。
但疲态初现：拉布布收藏品转售价格下滑，分析师担忧公司仍过度依赖单一产品。
达菲解释道：“对Z世代而言，明星的炫耀堪称转折点。原本稀缺的物品，瞬间让人觉得充斥着浓厚的商业气息。”
摩根大通分析师在下调泡泡玛特评级时也表达了类似质疑，他们将目标价从400港元调降至300港元。摩根大通称，虽然泡泡玛特上半年盈利状况良好，且与优衣库等品牌的合作也达到了预期，但包括拉布布动画系列和互动玩具产品线在内的后续项目，目前仍带有明显的投机性质。
换言之，泡泡玛特正沦为自身成功的牺牲品。在过去一年股价飙升五倍后，哪怕是转售价格疲软或产品质量传闻这类小插曲，都可能引发大规模抛售。曾经看似锐不可当的增长传奇，如今看起来更像是一场高风险博弈。
持久力考验
核心问题在于，拉布布能否在热潮退去后实现“软着陆”，从一时风潮蜕变为持久品牌。
达菲表示：“新鲜感终将消退，只是我们无法预知具体何时到来。这种不可预测性让营销人员夜不能寐。”
泡泡玛特正押注扩张战略，计划年底前在海外开设200家门店及自动售货机“机器人商店”，目标是到2027年让海外市场贡献60%的收益。目前拉布布单品仍占销售额三分之一以上。
不过维持文化影响力远比扩大零售规模艰难得多。
达菲说：“当下正处于关键转折点。在社交媒体时代，热度周期推进速度极快。昨日风靡全球的事物，今日可能已因过度曝光而失去魅力。”
对王宁而言，时间紧迫：得设法让拉布布保持新鲜感，否则这个价值数十亿美元的吉祥物恐将沦为玩具箱里的过时玩物。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Just weeks ago, Pop Mart founder Wang Ning was riding high with a net worth of $27 billion, richer than Silicon Valley’s Peter Thiel, thanks to a rabbit-eared plush called Labubu. The “ugly-cute” doll has been flaunted by celebrities from David Beckham to Blackpink’s Lisa, pushing resale prices to dizzying heights.
But once the “cool hunters” move on, Wall Street does too, and Wang is finding that out the expensive way.
Since Pop Mart’s peak on Aug. 26, the stock has plunged about 20%, erasing $13 billion in market cap—a quarter of his company’s worth—as the craze shows its age. The Beijing-based toymaker’s Hong Kong stock continued to dive on Monday, sliding as much as 9% in its steepest single-day tumble since the U.S. unveiled “Liberation Day” tariffs in April.
Wang has personally lost $6 billion of his own net worth since late August, according to a Forbes estimate.
The sharp pullback follows a downgrade on Monday from JPMorgan, with analysts warning that the firm’s valuation leaves “little margin for error” after a 427% surge over the past year.
Pop Mart did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
From craze to comedown
For much of 2024 and early 2025, Pop Mart was the darling of the Hang Seng Index as Labubu dolls sparked a frenzy across Asia. But a toy with a hype built on its engineered scarcity—Labubu dolls are notoriously difficult to collect and have a thriving resale and forgery market—cannot be valuable forever.
“The whole thing feels like the inevitable life cycle of something that becomes faddish, hits saturation, and then begins to fizzle,” Brook Duffy, a social media researcher and a communications professor at Cornell University, told Fortune. “Once too much attention gets lavished on a trend, it immediately loses its social currency.”
She compared Labubu’s rise and stall to the Tickle Me Elmo craze of the 1990s: first impossible to find, then suddenly everywhere, and finally no longer cool.
Pop Mart’s breakneck growth hasn’t reversed yet. Sales have surged over the past two years, with revenue more than doubling in 2024 and climbing another 200% in the first half of 2025.
But there are early signs of fatigue. Resale prices for Labubu collectibles are slipping, and analysts worry that the company remains heavily reliant on a single product.
“As soon as you saw celebrities showing them off, that was the tipping point for Gen Z,” Duffy explained. “What was scarce suddenly felt commercial.”
JPMorgan analysts echoed that skepticism in their downgrade, trimming their target price to HK$300 from HK$400. While Popmart’s first-half earnings and collaborations with brands like Uniqlo hit their marks, upcoming projects, including a Labubu animation series and interactive toy lines, have a speculative value so far, JPMorgan said.
Pop Mart, in other words, is a victim of its own success. After a five-fold stock rally over the past year, even minor disappointments—from weaker resale values or whispers about product quality—can trigger an outsized selloff. So what once looked like a runaway growth story now appears more to be a precarious bet.
A test of staying power
The deep question is whether Labubu can have a “soft landing” from its craze and evolve from fad to franchise.
“The novelty is always going to wear off,” Duffy said. “You just don’t know when. That unpredictability is what keeps marketers up at night.”
Pop Mart is betting big on expansion, seeking to operate 200 foreign stores and vending machine “roboshops” by year’s end, and aims for overseas markets to contribute 60% of earnings by 2027. Labubu alone still accounts for more than a third of sales.
But sustaining cultural relevance is harder than scaling retail.
“Right now feels like a critical inflection point,” Duffy said. “In a social media era, the hype cycle moves at breakneck speed. Something that was everywhere yesterday can feel overexposed today.”
For Wang, the clock is ticking: find a way to keep Labubu fresh, or risk watching his billion-dollar mascot fade into the toy box of past fads.