上周，甲骨文（Oracle）与OpenAI达成的3000亿美元巨额合作协议震惊华尔街，这份为期五年的合约不仅推动甲骨文股价大幅飙升，也让一直暗流涌动的“人工智能泡沫”担忧再度浮出水面。
在最新季度财报电话会议上，甲骨文公布的业绩预期令分析师震惊——其合同总额预计达4550亿美元，较去年同期增长359%。这一乐观的前瞻性数据推动该公司股价周三暴涨36%，创下史上最大单日涨幅纪录，首席执行官拉里·埃里森（Larry Ellison）也一度成为世界首富。
甲骨文之所以能成功与OpenAI达成这项合作，部分原因在于埃里森积极联络英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋。尽管此前甲骨文在云服务领域落后于其他竞争对手，但凭借这一战略举措，它囤积了大量顶级英伟达图形处理器，一跃成为人工智能基础设施领域的重要参与者。此次股价飙升，叠加该公司今年已实现的45%的涨幅，进一步巩固了其人工智能驱动的复苏态势。
然而，即便手握顶级图形处理器让甲骨文在基础设施领域的地位显著提升，部分分析师仍迅速发出警示：该公司的财务风险高度集中于单一且未经市场验证的客户。据《华尔街日报》报道，在甲骨文4550亿美元的剩余履约义务中，绝大部分源自与OpenAI达成的3000亿美元协议。依据这项数十亿美元的协议，这家人工智能企业将采用甲骨文的计算基础设施，这亦是有史以来签署的规模最大的云计算合同之一。此外，据《The Information》报道，该合约金额远超OpenAI目前的营收水平——其年化营收近期才达到120亿美元。
需要注意的是，剩余履约义务仅代表已签约但尚未交付的服务，并非确定性营收；客户有可能延迟、重新协商甚至取消部分协议内容。
这一事件再度为人工智能潜在泡沫敲响警钟。
近期，由于估值过高、回报率不及预期的早期迹象显现，再加上行业领军人物的警示性言论，人们对人工智能领域可能存在泡沫的担忧日益加剧。麻省理工学院（MIT）近期开展的一项研究表明，尽管生成式人工智能项目投资已超过400亿美元，但95%的人工智能试点项目未能收获实质性回报，这加剧了人们对投资炒作与实际成果脱节的担忧。而在该报告发布前几天，OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）也表示，他认为人工智能领域的私募市场正存在泡沫迹象，并对投资者过度热情及部分初创企业估值过高表达了担忧。
人工智能专家加里·马库斯（Gary Marcus）自2023年起就持续警示人工智能可能存在泡沫及经济隐患，他将OpenAI与甲骨文的协议称为“泡沫顶峰”。
马库斯在订阅制内容平台Substack发布的一篇文章中写道：“甲骨文市值逼近万亿美元，本周涨幅近50%，而这一涨势主要由一份显然不具约束力的协议推动——协议另一方甚至缺乏足够资金支付相关服务费用，此种情形比大多数泡沫现象都更为荒诞不经。”
对该协议可信度提出质疑的远不止马库斯一人。
科技作家、EZPR创始人兼首席执行官埃德·齐特龙（Ed Zirtron）在博客文章中指出：“甲骨文和OpenAI此番操作荒谬至极，双方试图用一份无法履行的合同误导投资者和整个市场，几乎可以断言OpenAI将在未来几年耗尽现金。”齐特龙亦是人工智能炒作热潮中直言不讳的质疑者。“OpenAI宣称将在2030年前超越英伟达的营收规模，然而却需在未来四年筹集2500亿美元资金，以支付与甲骨文达成的3000亿美元计算服务合约——而甲骨文根本无法及时建成配套数据中心来履行这份协议。”
质疑该交易经济合理性的不仅限于质疑当前人工智能模型潜在价值的人士。
人工智能研究员、OpenAI前政策研究部门负责人迈尔斯·布伦戴奇（Miles Brundage）在社交平台X上发文补充道：“我并不认为人工智能存在泡沫，但投资者对OpenAI-甲骨文交易感到困惑或担忧，完全在情理之中，哈哈。OpenAI连营利性转型都尚未获批，竟向外界承诺3000亿美元？”
投资者也对此提出疑问。Capital Market Laboratories首席执行官奥菲尔·戈特利布（Ophir Gottlie）在X平台上发文称：“这一切究竟要如何落地？甲骨文必须购买芯片，并背负更多债务，而OpenAI的年营收仅为100亿美元，却要在未来五年每年投入600亿美元用于资本支出。这怎么可能？”
OpenAI近期还达成了多项数十亿美元的交易，包括与博通（Broadcom）联合开发定制人工智能芯片、价值100亿美元的协议。此外，该公司仍在推进企业治理结构重组工作，旨在助力其营利性业务筹集更多资金——不过近期已取得重大进展，领投方微软表示将予以支持。
综合来看，OpenAI当前的营收规模与资本承诺，远不足以全面履行与甲骨文的合约。分析师估算，要履行相关义务，该公司的年营收需达到数千亿美元。
OpenAI与甲骨文的代表均未立即回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
上周，甲骨文（Oracle）与OpenAI达成的3000亿美元巨额合作协议震惊华尔街，这份为期五年的合约不仅推动甲骨文股价大幅飙升，也让一直暗流涌动的“人工智能泡沫”担忧再度浮出水面。
在最新季度财报电话会议上，甲骨文公布的业绩预期令分析师震惊——其合同总额预计达4550亿美元，较去年同期增长359%。这一乐观的前瞻性数据推动该公司股价周三暴涨36%，创下史上最大单日涨幅纪录，首席执行官拉里·埃里森（Larry Ellison）也一度成为世界首富。
甲骨文之所以能成功与OpenAI达成这项合作，部分原因在于埃里森积极联络英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋。尽管此前甲骨文在云服务领域落后于其他竞争对手，但凭借这一战略举措，它囤积了大量顶级英伟达图形处理器，一跃成为人工智能基础设施领域的重要参与者。此次股价飙升，叠加该公司今年已实现的45%的涨幅，进一步巩固了其人工智能驱动的复苏态势。
然而，即便手握顶级图形处理器让甲骨文在基础设施领域的地位显著提升，部分分析师仍迅速发出警示：该公司的财务风险高度集中于单一且未经市场验证的客户。据《华尔街日报》报道，在甲骨文4550亿美元的剩余履约义务中，绝大部分源自与OpenAI达成的3000亿美元协议。依据这项数十亿美元的协议，这家人工智能企业将采用甲骨文的计算基础设施，这亦是有史以来签署的规模最大的云计算合同之一。此外，据《The Information》报道，该合约金额远超OpenAI目前的营收水平——其年化营收近期才达到120亿美元。
需要注意的是，剩余履约义务仅代表已签约但尚未交付的服务，并非确定性营收；客户有可能延迟、重新协商甚至取消部分协议内容。
这一事件再度为人工智能潜在泡沫敲响警钟。
近期，由于估值过高、回报率不及预期的早期迹象显现，再加上行业领军人物的警示性言论，人们对人工智能领域可能存在泡沫的担忧日益加剧。麻省理工学院（MIT）近期开展的一项研究表明，尽管生成式人工智能项目投资已超过400亿美元，但95%的人工智能试点项目未能收获实质性回报，这加剧了人们对投资炒作与实际成果脱节的担忧。而在该报告发布前几天，OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）也表示，他认为人工智能领域的私募市场正存在泡沫迹象，并对投资者过度热情及部分初创企业估值过高表达了担忧。
人工智能专家加里·马库斯（Gary Marcus）自2023年起就持续警示人工智能可能存在泡沫及经济隐患，他将OpenAI与甲骨文的协议称为“泡沫顶峰”。
马库斯在订阅制内容平台Substack发布的一篇文章中写道：“甲骨文市值逼近万亿美元，本周涨幅近50%，而这一涨势主要由一份显然不具约束力的协议推动——协议另一方甚至缺乏足够资金支付相关服务费用，此种情形比大多数泡沫现象都更为荒诞不经。”
对该协议可信度提出质疑的远不止马库斯一人。
科技作家、EZPR创始人兼首席执行官埃德·齐特龙（Ed Zirtron）在博客文章中指出：“甲骨文和OpenAI此番操作荒谬至极，双方试图用一份无法履行的合同误导投资者和整个市场，几乎可以断言OpenAI将在未来几年耗尽现金。”齐特龙亦是人工智能炒作热潮中直言不讳的质疑者。“OpenAI宣称将在2030年前超越英伟达的营收规模，然而却需在未来四年筹集2500亿美元资金，以支付与甲骨文达成的3000亿美元计算服务合约——而甲骨文根本无法及时建成配套数据中心来履行这份协议。”
质疑该交易经济合理性的不仅限于质疑当前人工智能模型潜在价值的人士。
人工智能研究员、OpenAI前政策研究部门负责人迈尔斯·布伦戴奇（Miles Brundage）在社交平台X上发文补充道：“我并不认为人工智能存在泡沫，但投资者对OpenAI-甲骨文交易感到困惑或担忧，完全在情理之中，哈哈。OpenAI连营利性转型都尚未获批，竟向外界承诺3000亿美元？”
投资者也对此提出疑问。Capital Market Laboratories首席执行官奥菲尔·戈特利布（Ophir Gottlie）在X平台上发文称：“这一切究竟要如何落地？甲骨文必须购买芯片，并背负更多债务，而OpenAI的年营收仅为100亿美元，却要在未来五年每年投入600亿美元用于资本支出。这怎么可能？”
OpenAI近期还达成了多项数十亿美元的交易，包括与博通（Broadcom）联合开发定制人工智能芯片、价值100亿美元的协议。此外，该公司仍在推进企业治理结构重组工作，旨在助力其营利性业务筹集更多资金——不过近期已取得重大进展，领投方微软表示将予以支持。
综合来看，OpenAI当前的营收规模与资本承诺，远不足以全面履行与甲骨文的合约。分析师估算，要履行相关义务，该公司的年营收需达到数千亿美元。
OpenAI与甲骨文的代表均未立即回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Last week, Oracle surprised Wall Street with a massive $300 billion deal with OpenAI, a five-year deal that helped send Oracle’s stock soaring—and brought simmering fears of an ‘AI bubble’ back to the surface.
Oracle shocked analysts in its latest quarterly earnings call with revenue projections that cited $455 billion in contracts, up 359% from a year earlier. The optimistic forward-looking numbers caused the company’s stock to jump 36% on Wednesday, the company’s biggest one-day increase ever, and briefly made CEO Larry Ellison the richest man in the world.
Part of the reason Oracle was able to strike the deal with OpenAI at all is due to Ellison’s courting of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, which has allowed his company, despite previously trailing behind other cloud providers, to secure a large stockpile of top-of-the-line Nvidia GPUs and position itself as a significant player in the AI infrastructure space. The rally added to the 45% gain the company already notched up this year, and cemented Oracle’s AI-fueled comeback.
But while securing top-tier GPUs has bolstered Oracle’s infrastructure position, some analysts were quick to warn that the financial risk was heavily concentrated in a single, unproven customer. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the bulk of the company’s $455 billion remaining performance obligations, or RPO, will come from the $300 billion deal OpenAI. The AI firm announced it will tap Oracle’s computing infrastructure under the multi billion deal, one of the largest cloud contracts ever signed. It also far exceeds OpenAI’s current revenue, which recently hit $12 billion in annualized revenue, per The Information.
Because remaining performance obligations represent contracted but not yet delivered services, they are not guaranteed revenue; customers can delay, renegotiate, or even cancel portions of these commitments.
Cue fresh alarm bells over a potential AI bubble.
Fears that the AI sector might be in a bubble have intensified recently due to a combination of sky-high valuations, early signs of disappointing returns, and cautionary remarks from industry leaders. A recent study from MIT that found 95% of AI pilot programs fail to deliver meaningful returns, despite over $40 billion having been invested in generative AI projects, fueled fears that a gap was emerging between investment hype and real-world results. Days before the report was released, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also said that he believed the AI sector might be experiencing a bubble in the private markets, expressing concern over the level of investor enthusiasm and the overvaluation of some startups.
Gary Marcus, an AI expert who has been warning of a potential bubble and problematic economics of AI since 2023, called the OpenAI-Oracle deal “peak bubble.”
“Oracle’s new market cap, near a trillion dollars, up nearly 50% this week, driven largely by this one apparently non-binding deal with a party that doesn’t have the money to pay for the services, seems more bonkers than most,” Marcus wrote in a Substack post.
He wasn’t the only one raising alarms about the deal’s credibility.
“This is a grotesque attempt by both Oracle and OpenAI to mislead investors and the markets at large with a contract that neither party can fulfill, and it virtually guarantees that OpenAI will run out of cash in the next few years,” Ed Zirtron, a technology writer and founder and CEO of EZPR who has also emerged as a vocal skeptic of the hype surrounding AI, said in a blog post. “OpenAI, while claiming it’ll make more revenue than NVIDIA by 2030, needs $250bn funding over the next four years to pay its $300bn compute contract with Oracle, who cannot physically build the data centers to service it in time.”
And it wasn’t just those who doubt the underlying potential of today’s AI models that questioned the economics of the deal.
“I’m not an AI bubble person, but it is very understandable for investors to be confused/concerned by the OpenAI-Oracle deal lol. OpenAI hasn’t even gotten the for-profit conversion approved and is promising people 300 billion dollars??” Miles Brundage, an AI researcher and former head of policy research at OpenAI, added in a post on X.
Investors also had questions. “How is this all going to work exactly? ORCL has to buy the chips, take on more debt, while OpenAI has $10B in revenue but will spend $60B/yr in CapEx for five years. What?” Ophir Gottlieb, CEO of Capital Market Laboratories, wrote on X .
OpenAI has made several other billion-dollar deals recently, including $10 billion to develop custom AI chips with Broadcom. The company is also still in the process of figuring out how exactly it’s going to restructure its corporate governance to allow its for-profit to raise more capital, although it’s made a significant step recently by getting lead investor Microsoft on board.
Taken together, OpenAI’s current revenue and capital commitments fall far short of what would be needed to fully fund the Oracle contract, with analysts estimating the company would need hundreds of billions in annual revenue to meet these obligations.
Representatives for OpenAI and Oracle did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fortune.