数月来，华尔街评论人士一直担心人工智能热潮有泡沫迹象。分析师估计，到2028年人工智能领域的资本支出可能达到3万亿美元，让少数几家巨头赚得盆满钵满，而低收入劳动者却因劳动力市场疲软苦苦挣扎。
美联储主席9月17日的发言也印证了这一担心。
杰罗姆・鲍威尔表示，美国存在 “因人工智能建设产生的异常庞大的经济活动”。美联储罕见地承认，这波热潮不仅规模超常，而且收益向富裕阶层倾斜。
失衡现象不仅存在于市场层面。美国约70%的经济增长来自消费支出，但大多数家庭都是靠工资生活的月光族。分析师称当前的需求格局属于K型分化，即很多家庭削减生活必需品的开支，富有人群却持续消费旅游、科技和奢侈品，且8月该消费趋势仍在持续。目前，通胀回落的进展极度依赖这一脆弱的平衡。即便补救措施看似有效也只是暂时，甚至都不一定有效。
“（消费支出）很可能偏向高收入人群，”鲍威尔在美联储最新政策会议后对记者表示，“大量实证都能证明这一点。”
这种偏向在市场中愈发明显。目前，微软、英伟达、苹果、Alphabet（谷歌母公司）、Meta、亚马逊和特斯拉七家公司就占了标普500指数总市值的30%以上。即便整体就业增长已近乎停滞，巨头们靠着对人工智能大手笔支出仍能支撑企业投资保持正增长。高盛集团估计，今年春季企业资本支出同比增长7%，几乎全部来自人工智能领域。
鲍威尔这番言论凸显了美联储内部日益加剧的担忧，即尽管整体GDP增长率高于1.5%，但构成极不平衡，跟以往房地产或制造业繁荣时期的情况很不一样。
鲍威尔指出，“刚毕业的大学生、年轻人以及少数族裔”在当前降温的劳动力市场中找工作很困难，而富裕家庭消费很自由，企业则将资金投入前沿技术中。
当前的失衡状况反映了鲍威尔所说的“低裁员、低招聘环境”，也就是说裁员虽不常见，但新增就业岗位几乎停滞。此态势再加上经济收益向人工智能领域和富裕阶层集中，可能加剧不平等，也让美联储在平衡通胀与就业方面挑战更为艰巨。
这种脱节还可能扩大华尔街与普通民众之间的差距。一方面，富裕家庭持续自由消费，科技巨头向数据中心和芯片领域投入数十亿美元；另一方面，修订后的就业数据显示8月美国仅新增2.2万个岗位，失业率升至4.3%。
鲍威尔暗示，人工智能领域“异常庞大”的投资或许能支撑经济总量增长，对提振劳动力市场几乎没有帮助。
“目前整体求职成功率非常非常低，”他表示，“如果裁员开始涌现，市场上也不会有很多岗位招聘。”（*）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
数月来，华尔街评论人士一直担心人工智能热潮有泡沫迹象。分析师估计，到2028年人工智能领域的资本支出可能达到3万亿美元，让少数几家巨头赚得盆满钵满，而低收入劳动者却因劳动力市场疲软苦苦挣扎。
美联储主席9月17日的发言也印证了这一担心。
杰罗姆・鲍威尔表示，美国存在 “因人工智能建设产生的异常庞大的经济活动”。美联储罕见地承认，这波热潮不仅规模超常，而且收益向富裕阶层倾斜。
失衡现象不仅存在于市场层面。美国约70%的经济增长来自消费支出，但大多数家庭都是靠工资生活的月光族。分析师称当前的需求格局属于K型分化，即很多家庭削减生活必需品的开支，富有人群却持续消费旅游、科技和奢侈品，且8月该消费趋势仍在持续。目前，通胀回落的进展极度依赖这一脆弱的平衡。即便补救措施看似有效也只是暂时，甚至都不一定有效。
“（消费支出）很可能偏向高收入人群，”鲍威尔在美联储最新政策会议后对记者表示，“大量实证都能证明这一点。”
这种偏向在市场中愈发明显。目前，微软、英伟达、苹果、Alphabet（谷歌母公司）、Meta、亚马逊和特斯拉七家公司就占了标普500指数总市值的30%以上。即便整体就业增长已近乎停滞，巨头们靠着对人工智能大手笔支出仍能支撑企业投资保持正增长。高盛集团估计，今年春季企业资本支出同比增长7%，几乎全部来自人工智能领域。
鲍威尔这番言论凸显了美联储内部日益加剧的担忧，即尽管整体GDP增长率高于1.5%，但构成极不平衡，跟以往房地产或制造业繁荣时期的情况很不一样。
鲍威尔指出，“刚毕业的大学生、年轻人以及少数族裔”在当前降温的劳动力市场中找工作很困难，而富裕家庭消费很自由，企业则将资金投入前沿技术中。
当前的失衡状况反映了鲍威尔所说的“低裁员、低招聘环境”，也就是说裁员虽不常见，但新增就业岗位几乎停滞。此态势再加上经济收益向人工智能领域和富裕阶层集中，可能加剧不平等，也让美联储在平衡通胀与就业方面挑战更为艰巨。
这种脱节还可能扩大华尔街与普通民众之间的差距。一方面，富裕家庭持续自由消费，科技巨头向数据中心和芯片领域投入数十亿美元；另一方面，修订后的就业数据显示8月美国仅新增2.2万个岗位，失业率升至4.3%。
鲍威尔暗示，人工智能领域“异常庞大”的投资或许能支撑经济总量增长，对提振劳动力市场几乎没有帮助。
“目前整体求职成功率非常非常低，”他表示，“如果裁员开始涌现，市场上也不会有很多岗位招聘。”（*）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
For months, Wall Street commentators have fretted that the artificial intelligence boom looks like a bubble, with capital spending – which some analysts estimate could reach $3 trillion by 2028 – fattening a few mega-cap firms, while lower-income workers suffer from a slack labor market.
On Wednesday, they got validation from an unlikely source: the chair of the Federal Reserve.
Jerome Powell said the U.S. is seeing “unusually large amounts of economic activity through the AI buildout,” a rare acknowledgement from the central bank that the surge is not only outsized, but also skewed toward the wealthy.
That imbalance extends beyond markets. Roughly 70% of U.S. economic growth comes from consumer spending, yet most households live paycheck to paycheck. That demand picture has taken on a shape that analysts call K-shaped: while many families cut back on essentials, wealthier households continue to spend on travel, tech, and luxury goods—and they continued to do so in August. For now, the inflation recovery depends heavily on this dynamic remaining in fragile stasis. It’s a fix that works well until it doesn’t, if it could be described as working at all.
“[Spending] may well be skewed toward higher-earning consumers,” Powell told reporters after the Fed’s latest policy meeting. “There’s a lot of anecdotal evidence to suggest that.”
That skew has become increasingly obvious in markets. Just seven firms — Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla — now make up more than 30% of the S&P 500’s value. Their relentless AI capex is keeping business investment positive, even as overall job growth has slowed to a crawl. Goldman Sachs estimates AI spending accounted for nearly all of the 7% year-over-year gain in corporate capex this spring.
The comments underscore a widening concern at the Fed: that while headline GDP growth is holding above 1.5%, the composition of that growth is uneven, unlike previous booms in housing or manufacturing.
Powell pointed to “kids coming out of college and younger people, minorities” as struggling to find jobs in today’s cooling labor market, even as affluent households continue to spend freely and companies funnel cash into cutting-edge technologies.
The imbalance reflects what Powell described as “a low firing, low hiring environment,” where layoffs remain rare but job creation has slowed to a crawl. That dynamic, combined with the concentration of economic gains in AI and among the wealthy, risks deepening inequality, and complicates the Fed’s attempt to balance its inflation and employment mandates.
That disconnect risks widening the gap between Wall Street and Main Street. While affluent households continue to spend freely and tech titans pour billions into data centers and chips, revised jobs data show the economy added just 22,000 positions in August, with unemployment edging up to 4.3%.
“Unusually large” AI investment may sustain top-line growth, Powell suggested, but it’s doing little to lift the broad labor market.
“The overall job finding rate is very, very low,” he said. “If layoffs begin to rise, there won’t be a lot of hiring going on.”