上周三，美联储将联邦基金利率从4.25%下调25个基点至4%，此举在会议召开前数周便已释放出信号。美股应声大涨后随即逆转走势。美联储在其货币政策声明中披露，新上任的美联储理事斯蒂芬·I·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）投下反对票，主张更激进地降息50个基点。米兰是唯一持异议的成员。
尽管美股此前连创新高，但25个基点的降息决定先是助力市场上扬，随后行情又迅速回落。标普500指数收盘下跌0.1%，纳斯达克指数收盘下跌0.33%，道琼斯工业平均指数逆势上涨0.57%。涵盖小盘股的罗素2000指数上涨0.26%。黄金价格一度跃升至每盎司3704美元，随后回落至3665美元。
Quant Data创始人兼首席执行官安德鲁·希辛格（Andrew Hiesinger）表示，期权市场最初出现看跌期权活动激增——这类期权赋予投资者以特定价格抛售股票的权利——这可能表明投资者为防范下行风险而增加对冲操作。他指出，此次降息虽符合预期，但投资者正在寻找信号，判断今年是否还会迎来两到三次降息，以及2026年的政策展望。
希辛格告诉《财富》杂志：“真正令人意外的是美联储对当前经济状况的看法。他们暗示未来经济将现疲软态势，这意味着他们在考虑进一步降息。”
他补充道，这对科技股和成长股而言都是利好消息，通常意味着股市会上涨，但经济疲软令投资者担忧，尤其是在就业方面。上月美国新增就业岗位仅2.2万个，较7月的7.9万个大幅下滑。失业率攀升至4.3%，为2021年以来的最高水平。
TIAA Wealth Management首席投资官尼拉德里·“尼尔”·穆克吉（Niladri “Neel” Mukherjee）写道，美联储“在降息25个基点并预测年内再降息两次时，更关注劳动力市场的疲软态势，而非与关税相关的通胀风险”。
穆克吉在声明中表示：“此次降息属于风险管理举措，随着劳动力市场风险上升，美联储正试图从限制性政策立场向中性立场转变。”
他指出，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在宣布降息后的新闻发布会上，似乎对经济和劳动力市场放缓背景下物价上涨的可能性不太担忧。
穆克吉补充道：“当前政策框架短期内对债券利好，对美元利空，对美股则呈中性。”
Harbor Capital投资组合经理、前纽约联邦储备银行市场小组成员杰克·舒尔迈尔（Jake Schurmeier）指出，小盘股上涨及黄金价格起伏波动在现行政策框架下是合乎逻辑的。他表示上周三的意外并非降息举措本身，而是美联储的点阵图显示，预计降息中位数为三次，而非市场预期的2.5次。这种略微偏向鸽派的转变表明委员会成员的政策思维发生了重大转变。
舒尔迈尔表示，米兰投反对票在预料之内，不过他原本预计还会有另外两位成员投反对票，在他看来，这凸显了政策辩论的边缘化性质以及美联储官员对宽松节奏的不确定性。他表示，美联储在其政策展望中保持灵活性，《联邦公开市场委员会经济预测摘要》中的数据属于动态评估而非确定性承诺。 （*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
上周三，美联储将联邦基金利率从4.25%下调25个基点至4%，此举在会议召开前数周便已释放出信号。美股应声大涨后随即逆转走势。美联储在其货币政策声明中披露，新上任的美联储理事斯蒂芬·I·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）投下反对票，主张更激进地降息50个基点。米兰是唯一持异议的成员。
尽管美股此前连创新高，但25个基点的降息决定先是助力市场上扬，随后行情又迅速回落。标普500指数收盘下跌0.1%，纳斯达克指数收盘下跌0.33%，道琼斯工业平均指数逆势上涨0.57%。涵盖小盘股的罗素2000指数上涨0.26%。黄金价格一度跃升至每盎司3704美元，随后回落至3665美元。
Quant Data创始人兼首席执行官安德鲁·希辛格（Andrew Hiesinger）表示，期权市场最初出现看跌期权活动激增——这类期权赋予投资者以特定价格抛售股票的权利——这可能表明投资者为防范下行风险而增加对冲操作。他指出，此次降息虽符合预期，但投资者正在寻找信号，判断今年是否还会迎来两到三次降息，以及2026年的政策展望。
希辛格告诉《财富》杂志：“真正令人意外的是美联储对当前经济状况的看法。他们暗示未来经济将现疲软态势，这意味着他们在考虑进一步降息。”
他补充道，这对科技股和成长股而言都是利好消息，通常意味着股市会上涨，但经济疲软令投资者担忧，尤其是在就业方面。上月美国新增就业岗位仅2.2万个，较7月的7.9万个大幅下滑。失业率攀升至4.3%，为2021年以来的最高水平。
TIAA Wealth Management首席投资官尼拉德里·“尼尔”·穆克吉（Niladri “Neel” Mukherjee）写道，美联储“在降息25个基点并预测年内再降息两次时，更关注劳动力市场的疲软态势，而非与关税相关的通胀风险”。
穆克吉在声明中表示：“此次降息属于风险管理举措，随着劳动力市场风险上升，美联储正试图从限制性政策立场向中性立场转变。”
他指出，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在宣布降息后的新闻发布会上，似乎对经济和劳动力市场放缓背景下物价上涨的可能性不太担忧。
穆克吉补充道：“当前政策框架短期内对债券利好，对美元利空，对美股则呈中性。”
Harbor Capital投资组合经理、前纽约联邦储备银行市场小组成员杰克·舒尔迈尔（Jake Schurmeier）指出，小盘股上涨及黄金价格起伏波动在现行政策框架下是合乎逻辑的。他表示上周三的意外并非降息举措本身，而是美联储的点阵图显示，预计降息中位数为三次，而非市场预期的2.5次。这种略微偏向鸽派的转变表明委员会成员的政策思维发生了重大转变。
舒尔迈尔表示，米兰投反对票在预料之内，不过他原本预计还会有另外两位成员投反对票，在他看来，这凸显了政策辩论的边缘化性质以及美联储官员对宽松节奏的不确定性。他表示，美联储在其政策展望中保持灵活性，《联邦公开市场委员会经济预测摘要》中的数据属于动态评估而非确定性承诺。 （*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Stock markets spiked and then immediately reversed course after the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 4% from 4.25% on Wednesday in a move that had been telegraphed for weeks leading up to the meeting. Newly sworn in Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran voted against the action, in favor of a steeper cut of half a percentage point, the Fed disclosed in its monetary policy update. Miran was the only member to dissent.
Stock markets, which have been at all-time highs, rose in response to the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, but dropped down soon after. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%, the Nasdaq closed down .33%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.57%. The Russell 2000, which includes smaller-cap stocks, rose 0.26%. Gold prices jumped to $3,704 an ounce before sinking back to $3,665.
In the options market, there was an initial spike in put activity—trading in put options that give an investor the opportunity to sell stock at a specific price—that likely represented increased hedges as investors look to protect themselves on the downside, said Andrew Hiesinger, founder and CEO of Quant Data. He noted that the cut was expected but investors are looking for signals about whether they can expect two or three more cuts this year and the outlook for 2026.
“The real surprise is what the Fed’s opinion is on the current state of the economy,” Hiesinger told Fortune. “They’re signaling some weakness in the future which means that they’re looking to do more cuts.”
That’s good news for both tech and growth stocks, which would usually mean a rally, he added, but the weaknesses in the economy are worrisome for investors, especially on the jobs front. Last month, the U.S. added 22,000 new hires which was a precipitous fall from July when 79,000 jobs were added to payrolls. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest it’s been since 2021.
According to Niladri “Neel” Mukherjee, chief investment officer of TIAA Wealth Management, the Fed “put more weight on softening labor market conditions than tariff related inflation risk in cutting by 25 bps and projecting two more cuts this year,” he wrote.
“This was a risk management cut, with the Fed attempting to move towards neutral from a restrictive policy stance, as the risk to the labor market has increased,” said Mukherjee in a statement.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his press conference following the announcement, seemed less concerned about the possibility of rising prices in light of the slowdown in the economy and labor market, he said.
“This policy set up is bullish for bonds, bearish for the dollar and neutral for equities in the near term,” added Mukherjee.
Jake Schurmeier, a portfolio manager with Harbor Capital and a former member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Markets Group, noted the small-cap stock rally and a roundtrip move on gold made logical sense given the policy framework. He said the surprise on Wednesday wasn’t the cut but the Fed’s dot plot showing a median of three cuts projected rather than the market’s expectation of 2.5. That marginal shift to a more dovish direction shows a meaningful change to the policy thinking among the committee members.
Schurmeier said Miran’s dissent was unsurprising, but he expected potentially two additional dissents, which to him underscores the marginal nature of debates over policy and the uncertainty among Fed officials about the pace of easing. He said the Fed is maintaining flexibility in its outlook and that the data in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) are fluid assessments rather than firm promises.