随着抵押贷款利率小幅回落、房价涨幅趋于平稳，美国房市近期获得了一丝喘息空间。但买卖双方仍持谨慎态度。
挂牌房源持续减少：Redfin周一报告显示，8月活跃房源量下降1.4%，创2023年以来最大月度降幅。
Redfin经济研究主管赵晨（Chen Zhao，音译）在报告中指出：“高住房成本与经济焦虑让购房者惶惶不安，而这种不安情绪已蔓延至售房者。我们目前预计全年成屋销售量将维持在405万套左右，与2024年基本持平——2024年是1995年以来销量最惨淡的一年。”
当前住房市场僵局陷入无尽循环：购房者因抵押贷款利率和房价居高不下（Redfin数据显示，房价同比上涨1.7%至440004美元）而不愿出手购房；房主既不愿为换房承担更高的抵押贷款利率，又担心售价达不到心理预期，因此不愿挂牌售房。
这种僵局迫使部分售房者大幅降价或直接下架房源。据Realtor.com数据显示，6月全美房源下架量同比激增47%，今年迄今累计涨幅达34%。
Realtor.com高级经济学家杰克·克里梅尔（Jake Krimmel）此前向《财富》杂志表示：“当前全美市场正逐步重归平衡，购房者议价能力增强，售房者则面临两难抉择：要么顺应市场行情降价出售，要么坚持既定要价、承担房源长期难以售出的风险。许多售房者仍未给出符合市场的定价。”
Redfin数据显示，受购房需求疲软影响，售房者正纷纷下架房源。事实上，当前销售量仍远低于疫情前水平，而抵押贷款利率略有下降尚未显现成效。
“不过，倘若利率持续下降，局势或将迎来逆转；若秋季房市表现超出预期，今年成屋销量最终可能会略高于去年。”赵晨写道。
Redfin数据显示，8月抵押贷款利率降至6.59%，为10个月来最低月均水平。据《抵押贷款新闻日报》（Mortgage News Daily），截至周一，30年期固定抵押贷款利率为6.35%，较5月的7%有所下降。
对于能让购房者愿意申请抵押贷款的“利率临界点”，各方存在争议。芝加哥Redfin Premier房产经纪人贝丝·贝林（Beth Behling）在声明中表示，她认为6%是关键临界点，但其他专家指出利率需降至5%，才会产生实质性影响。
Zillow在8月初发布的报告中指出，抵押贷款利率需降至约4.43%，普通购房者才得以负担得起一套普通住房。尽管该房地产网站的经济分析师阿努什娜·普拉卡什（Anushna Prakash）表示，鉴于要达到这一利率水平需大幅下降，此目标“不切实际”。
弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿市房地产经纪人菲利帕·梅恩（Philippa Main）此前向《财富》杂志表示：“短期内利率不太可能降至4.5%左右。即便真能降到该水平，房价依然处于历史高位。”（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
随着抵押贷款利率小幅回落、房价涨幅趋于平稳，美国房市近期获得了一丝喘息空间。但买卖双方仍持谨慎态度。
挂牌房源持续减少：Redfin周一报告显示，8月活跃房源量下降1.4%，创2023年以来最大月度降幅。
Redfin经济研究主管赵晨（Chen Zhao，音译）在报告中指出：“高住房成本与经济焦虑让购房者惶惶不安，而这种不安情绪已蔓延至售房者。我们目前预计全年成屋销售量将维持在405万套左右，与2024年基本持平——2024年是1995年以来销量最惨淡的一年。”
当前住房市场僵局陷入无尽循环：购房者因抵押贷款利率和房价居高不下（Redfin数据显示，房价同比上涨1.7%至440004美元）而不愿出手购房；房主既不愿为换房承担更高的抵押贷款利率，又担心售价达不到心理预期，因此不愿挂牌售房。
这种僵局迫使部分售房者大幅降价或直接下架房源。据Realtor.com数据显示，6月全美房源下架量同比激增47%，今年迄今累计涨幅达34%。
Realtor.com高级经济学家杰克·克里梅尔（Jake Krimmel）此前向《财富》杂志表示：“当前全美市场正逐步重归平衡，购房者议价能力增强，售房者则面临两难抉择：要么顺应市场行情降价出售，要么坚持既定要价、承担房源长期难以售出的风险。许多售房者仍未给出符合市场的定价。”
Redfin数据显示，受购房需求疲软影响，售房者正纷纷下架房源。事实上，当前销售量仍远低于疫情前水平，而抵押贷款利率略有下降尚未显现成效。
“不过，倘若利率持续下降，局势或将迎来逆转；若秋季房市表现超出预期，今年成屋销量最终可能会略高于去年。”赵晨写道。
Redfin数据显示，8月抵押贷款利率降至6.59%，为10个月来最低月均水平。据《抵押贷款新闻日报》（Mortgage News Daily），截至周一，30年期固定抵押贷款利率为6.35%，较5月的7%有所下降。
对于能让购房者愿意申请抵押贷款的“利率临界点”，各方存在争议。芝加哥Redfin Premier房产经纪人贝丝·贝林（Beth Behling）在声明中表示，她认为6%是关键临界点，但其他专家指出利率需降至5%，才会产生实质性影响。
Zillow在8月初发布的报告中指出，抵押贷款利率需降至约4.43%，普通购房者才得以负担得起一套普通住房。尽管该房地产网站的经济分析师阿努什娜·普拉卡什（Anushna Prakash）表示，鉴于要达到这一利率水平需大幅下降，此目标“不切实际”。
弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿市房地产经纪人菲利帕·梅恩（Philippa Main）此前向《财富》杂志表示：“短期内利率不太可能降至4.5%左右。即便真能降到该水平，房价依然处于历史高位。”（*）
译者：中慧言-王芳
There’s recently been a little bit of breathing room in the U.S. housing market as mortgage rates have slightly declined and home price increases have started to steady. But both buyers and sellers are still cautious.
Fewer homeowners are putting their homes on the market: Active listings fell 1.4% in August, which represents the biggest monthly decline since 2023, according to a Monday report from Redfin.
“High housing costs and economic jitters have rattled buyers, and that unease has spilled over to sellers,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, wrote in the report. “We currently expect existing-home sales to end the year at around 4.05 million, or roughly flat compared to 2024, which was the worst year for sales since 1995.”
The housing market is stuck in an unending circle of gridlock: Buyers aren’t inclined to purchase a home because mortgage rates and home prices are too high (they’re up 1.7% year over year at $440,004, according to Redfin). And homeowners don’t want to sell their homes to trade for a higher mortgage rate and out of fear they won’t get what they think their home is worth.
That gridlock has forced some sellers to slash asking prices or pull their listings off the market altogether. Delistings—or taking a home off the market—jumped 47% nationally in June from a year ago, according to Realtor.com, and are up 34% year to date.
“What we’re seeing nationally is a market that’s gradually rebalancing, with buyers gaining leverage and sellers facing a tradeoff: Adjust to the market and sell for less, or hold out and risk sitting indefinitely,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel previously told Fortune. “Many sellers still aren’t pricing to sell.”
Redfin data shows sellers have been pulling back because homebuyer demand is sluggish. In fact, sales are still far lower than even pre-pandemic levels, and the slight drop in mortgage rates hasn’t proven to be effective yet.
“But that may change if rates continue declining; if we get a stronger-than-expected fall housing market, existing-home sales could end this year a little higher than last year,” Chen wrote.
Redfin’s figures show mortgage rates fell to 6.59% in August, the lowest monthly average in 10 months. According to Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage as of Monday is 6.35%, down from 7% in May.
There is debate about the magic number it would take for buyers to be inclined to take out a mortgage. While Beth Behling, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Chicago, said in a statement she thinks the magic number is 6%, others have said closer to 5% would make more of a meaningful difference.
Zillow reported in early August it would take mortgage rates dropping to about 4.43% to make an average home affordable for a typical buyer—although the real estate site’s economic analyst Anushna Prakash said this was “unrealistic” considering the huge drop required to get there.
“It’s unlikely rates will drop to the mid-[4% range] anytime soon,” Arlington, Va.-based real estate agent Philippa Main previously told Fortune. “And even if they did, housing prices are still at historic highs.”