大卫·麦克威廉斯刚从爱尔兰飞抵洛杉矶，尚在调整时差，便打开Zoom接受了《财富》杂志的连线采访。这位广受读者（和听众）欢迎的经济学家，在X平台拥有数十万粉丝，其主持的经济学播客据称是欧洲最受欢迎的节目。坦率讲，他也是一位非常友善、和蔼可亲的人。他向《财富》杂志记者绘声绘色地讲起了上世纪80年代末在纽约的冒险经历——那年夏天，他在布利克街的“红狮”酒吧打工，这份工作来自“我一位朋友的叔叔”的介绍。
这位来自都柏林的经济学家，在抵达美国不到24小时后便接受了《财富》的采访，此行是为其新书《货币简史》在全美进行巡回宣传。该书于2024年在欧洲出版，广受好评，是全球畅销书。[U2主唱波诺（Bono）在推荐语中称赞此书是“一部兼具宏大叙事与细腻描写的冒险史诗”。]麦克威廉斯告诉《财富》，他已经感受到了美国的不同之处：“你能感觉到这个地方的蓬勃生气，对吧？”他讲述了自己乘坐优步时的惊讶经历，司机滔滔不绝地向他推销各种投资点子。“不到两分钟，他就开始谈论股市、比特币、人工智能、英伟达（Nvidia），什么都聊。你能想象吗？我就坐着他的车，一路沿着日落大道行驶。”
麦克威廉斯补充说，在爱尔兰绝不会看到这种事，美国“金融渗透社会的方式”与欧洲“截然不同”。他说：“金钱在美国的普世性让欧洲人着迷。”他指出，这种差异可以一直追溯到19世纪40年代法国人亚历西斯·德·托克维尔（Alexis de Tocqueville）的游记。麦克威廉斯说，当托克维尔抵达美国时，“他的整体感受是，‘天哪，这些人痴迷于金钱。’而欧洲人当时则痴迷于其他东西，比如等级制度。”
正因如此，这位全球最受瞩目的通俗经济学家之一实事求是地指出，由人工智能投资热潮驱动的美国“繁荣”注定会崩盘。他指出，不仅“人工智能没有创造任何就业岗位”，而且推动这场繁荣的关键投资也极易贬值。麦克威廉斯说，对图形处理器（GPU）的大规模投资是有问题的，因为它是“数字生菜”，很容易在不久后就“枯萎”。“你投资的东西是一种易腐烂的商品。”
“技术变革意味着，如果你今天购买GPU，明年这个芯片就会过时，”麦克威廉斯解释道。他借用母亲形容生菜腐烂的说法，补充说人工智能公司正在“把巨额资金投在生菜上，这些生菜马上就要烂掉了”。
麦克威廉斯由此卷入了一场辩论。资深市场观察人士埃德·亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）称之为“使用寿命之辩”，而著名的《大空头》投资者迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）则声称，这仅是威胁整个市场的巨大冰山一角。伯里特别指出，科技巨头延长资产折旧年限的做法令人怀疑，它们没有对投资于麦克威廉斯所谓的“数字生菜”上的亏损项目按市值计价。然而，亚德尼在11月17日撰文表示，他并不认为这些“数字生菜”会像伯里和麦克威廉斯所说的那样迅速枯萎：“在2022年底ChatGPT推出引发AI热潮之前，数据中心就已经存在。由于云计算需求的快速增长，2021年美国的数据中心多达4000座。其中许多仍在用最初的芯片运行。”（麦克威廉斯接受《财富》采访是在英伟达公布最新季度财报之前，该财报似乎缓解了市场对泡沫即将破裂的担忧。）
尽管如此，麦克威廉斯告诉《财富》，即使崩盘发生，他对于美国作为世界创新中心的地位也并不太担心。一个重要原因与他在洛杉矶遇到的那位优步司机有关。这也是美国在货币史上始终扮演关键角色的奥秘所在。
“反传统社会”与创新的秘密
麦克威廉斯对大多数经济学教材不屑一顾，认为它们对普通大众来说太过枯燥。他说自己“一直认为，理解经济学的关键在于将其从二流数学家手中夺回，重新置于讲故事的领域。”他相信人类“天生擅长讲故事，而非通过数学来解释世界。”将货币定义为一种技术，如同远古人类发明并历经数千年塑造与重塑的火种，正是他创作这本新书的灵感火花。
他描述了人类学家和生物学家如何将人类称为“喜火物种”，能够适应并不断随着“火”这项技术而进化。他认为，货币的发明也遵循同样的逻辑，这就是为什么他对美国能够度过未来任何潜在的危机充满信心。他认为美国本质上是一个“反传统社会”，由其混乱——但最终具有创新性——的特质所驱动。
麦克威廉斯解释说，他认为欧洲社会的运行像一份“保险单”，旨在规避风险，而美国的特质则是拥抱风险。他说，催生像AI热潮这样的创新，正是这种态度的特征，几乎是其副产品。“对风险的接纳是美国比欧洲更具创新力的原因，”他说，并论证道：“这种创新精神根植于美国历史，可以追溯到亚历山大·汉密尔顿（Alexander Hamilton），他建立了伟大的银行体系和货币体系，使革命时期的经济能在四五年内用本国纸币进行借贷。”
麦克威廉斯指出，美国似乎理解创新具有“邻近性”——即小创新的组合。他对着镜头举起自己的智能手机，指出这就是一个邻近性产品，融合了电话、电脑、相机等功能，“这是欧洲人绝对构想不出来的。”他用锤子和钉子打比方，说钉子只有与锤子结合使用才真正有用。
另一方面，在欧洲，“整个理念就是你要一直规避风险，对吧？你享受公共医疗，上公立学校，找一份不会被解雇的工作，诸如此类。”麦克威廉斯补充说，对欧洲人而言，风险“是由美国那些怪人去承担的”，并指出风险是“美国人定义性的心理状态”。
为“创造性破坏”优化营销
麦克威廉斯表示，他的书被翻译成这么多语言（确切地说是21种）的一个重要原因，是为了传播奥地利传奇经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特（Joseph Schumpeter）的理论：麦克威廉斯说，尽管熊彼特是个“古怪的”人物，但他“想法是正确的，基本上认为经济是一个庞大的进化机制，进化力量推动创新，而创新力量则推动社会进步和财富创造。”当有人向他指出熊彼特那句名言'创造性破坏'有点难以推销时，麦克威廉斯表示同意：“他需要一个更好的营销部门，但他的想法是对的。”（位于挪威的诺贝尔委员会在2025年默示认可了熊彼特，将经济学奖授予了几位进一步阐释“创造性破坏”概念的经济学家。）
回到美国潜在AI泡沫破裂的话题上，麦克威廉斯表示，他并不担心AI公司会发展到“太大而不能倒”的地步，这是OpenAI高管近期言论引发的担忧。麦克威廉斯认为，对更广泛经济的唯一真正威胁在于，AI行业能否成功说服特朗普政府，将芯片视为“战略资产”或“国家安全”问题——从而将其与军工复合体联系起来。
基于政治情绪，麦克威廉斯排除了这种可能性。他指出，如果唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）再次参选，他那高度进化的“民粹本能”会让他认识到，“反对硅谷”在选举中是绝对制胜的策略。
“我对美国有一点理解，”麦克威廉斯补充道，“那就是他们大体上‘不恨富人……他们受不了的是专业阶层’。”他说，在美国，富人并非仇恨的对象，这源于文化对金钱的态度：“金钱是强大的平衡器。”（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
大卫·麦克威廉斯刚从爱尔兰飞抵洛杉矶，尚在调整时差，便打开Zoom接受了《财富》杂志的连线采访。这位广受读者（和听众）欢迎的经济学家，在X平台拥有数十万粉丝，其主持的经济学播客据称是欧洲最受欢迎的节目。坦率讲，他也是一位非常友善、和蔼可亲的人。他向《财富》杂志记者绘声绘色地讲起了上世纪80年代末在纽约的冒险经历——那年夏天，他在布利克街的“红狮”酒吧打工，这份工作来自“我一位朋友的叔叔”的介绍。
这位来自都柏林的经济学家，在抵达美国不到24小时后便接受了《财富》的采访，此行是为其新书《货币简史》在全美进行巡回宣传。该书于2024年在欧洲出版，广受好评，是全球畅销书。[U2主唱波诺（Bono）在推荐语中称赞此书是“一部兼具宏大叙事与细腻描写的冒险史诗”。]麦克威廉斯告诉《财富》，他已经感受到了美国的不同之处：“你能感觉到这个地方的蓬勃生气，对吧？”他讲述了自己乘坐优步时的惊讶经历，司机滔滔不绝地向他推销各种投资点子。“不到两分钟，他就开始谈论股市、比特币、人工智能、英伟达（Nvidia），什么都聊。你能想象吗？我就坐着他的车，一路沿着日落大道行驶。”
麦克威廉斯补充说，在爱尔兰绝不会看到这种事，美国“金融渗透社会的方式”与欧洲“截然不同”。他说：“金钱在美国的普世性让欧洲人着迷。”他指出，这种差异可以一直追溯到19世纪40年代法国人亚历西斯·德·托克维尔（Alexis de Tocqueville）的游记。麦克威廉斯说，当托克维尔抵达美国时，“他的整体感受是，‘天哪，这些人痴迷于金钱。’而欧洲人当时则痴迷于其他东西，比如等级制度。”
正因如此，这位全球最受瞩目的通俗经济学家之一实事求是地指出，由人工智能投资热潮驱动的美国“繁荣”注定会崩盘。他指出，不仅“人工智能没有创造任何就业岗位”，而且推动这场繁荣的关键投资也极易贬值。麦克威廉斯说，对图形处理器（GPU）的大规模投资是有问题的，因为它是“数字生菜”，很容易在不久后就“枯萎”。“你投资的东西是一种易腐烂的商品。”
“技术变革意味着，如果你今天购买GPU，明年这个芯片就会过时，”麦克威廉斯解释道。他借用母亲形容生菜腐烂的说法，补充说人工智能公司正在“把巨额资金投在生菜上，这些生菜马上就要烂掉了”。
麦克威廉斯由此卷入了一场辩论。资深市场观察人士埃德·亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）称之为“使用寿命之辩”，而著名的《大空头》投资者迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）则声称，这仅是威胁整个市场的巨大冰山一角。伯里特别指出，科技巨头延长资产折旧年限的做法令人怀疑，它们没有对投资于麦克威廉斯所谓的“数字生菜”上的亏损项目按市值计价。然而，亚德尼在11月17日撰文表示，他并不认为这些“数字生菜”会像伯里和麦克威廉斯所说的那样迅速枯萎：“在2022年底ChatGPT推出引发AI热潮之前，数据中心就已经存在。由于云计算需求的快速增长，2021年美国的数据中心多达4000座。其中许多仍在用最初的芯片运行。”（麦克威廉斯接受《财富》采访是在英伟达公布最新季度财报之前，该财报似乎缓解了市场对泡沫即将破裂的担忧。）
尽管如此，麦克威廉斯告诉《财富》，即使崩盘发生，他对于美国作为世界创新中心的地位也并不太担心。一个重要原因与他在洛杉矶遇到的那位优步司机有关。这也是美国在货币史上始终扮演关键角色的奥秘所在。
“反传统社会”与创新的秘密
麦克威廉斯对大多数经济学教材不屑一顾，认为它们对普通大众来说太过枯燥。他说自己“一直认为，理解经济学的关键在于将其从二流数学家手中夺回，重新置于讲故事的领域。”他相信人类“天生擅长讲故事，而非通过数学来解释世界。”将货币定义为一种技术，如同远古人类发明并历经数千年塑造与重塑的火种，正是他创作这本新书的灵感火花。
他描述了人类学家和生物学家如何将人类称为“喜火物种”，能够适应并不断随着“火”这项技术而进化。他认为，货币的发明也遵循同样的逻辑，这就是为什么他对美国能够度过未来任何潜在的危机充满信心。他认为美国本质上是一个“反传统社会”，由其混乱——但最终具有创新性——的特质所驱动。
麦克威廉斯解释说，他认为欧洲社会的运行像一份“保险单”，旨在规避风险，而美国的特质则是拥抱风险。他说，催生像AI热潮这样的创新，正是这种态度的特征，几乎是其副产品。“对风险的接纳是美国比欧洲更具创新力的原因，”他说，并论证道：“这种创新精神根植于美国历史，可以追溯到亚历山大·汉密尔顿（Alexander Hamilton），他建立了伟大的银行体系和货币体系，使革命时期的经济能在四五年内用本国纸币进行借贷。”
麦克威廉斯指出，美国似乎理解创新具有“邻近性”——即小创新的组合。他对着镜头举起自己的智能手机，指出这就是一个邻近性产品，融合了电话、电脑、相机等功能，“这是欧洲人绝对构想不出来的。”他用锤子和钉子打比方，说钉子只有与锤子结合使用才真正有用。
另一方面，在欧洲，“整个理念就是你要一直规避风险，对吧？你享受公共医疗，上公立学校，找一份不会被解雇的工作，诸如此类。”麦克威廉斯补充说，对欧洲人而言，风险“是由美国那些怪人去承担的”，并指出风险是“美国人定义性的心理状态”。
为“创造性破坏”优化营销
麦克威廉斯表示，他的书被翻译成这么多语言（确切地说是21种）的一个重要原因，是为了传播奥地利传奇经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特（Joseph Schumpeter）的理论：麦克威廉斯说，尽管熊彼特是个“古怪的”人物，但他“想法是正确的，基本上认为经济是一个庞大的进化机制，进化力量推动创新，而创新力量则推动社会进步和财富创造。”当有人向他指出熊彼特那句名言'创造性破坏'有点难以推销时，麦克威廉斯表示同意：“他需要一个更好的营销部门，但他的想法是对的。”（位于挪威的诺贝尔委员会在2025年默示认可了熊彼特，将经济学奖授予了几位进一步阐释“创造性破坏”概念的经济学家。）
回到美国潜在AI泡沫破裂的话题上，麦克威廉斯表示，他并不担心AI公司会发展到“太大而不能倒”的地步，这是OpenAI高管近期言论引发的担忧。麦克威廉斯认为，对更广泛经济的唯一真正威胁在于，AI行业能否成功说服特朗普政府，将芯片视为“战略资产”或“国家安全”问题——从而将其与军工复合体联系起来。
基于政治情绪，麦克威廉斯排除了这种可能性。他指出，如果唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）再次参选，他那高度进化的“民粹本能”会让他认识到，“反对硅谷”在选举中是绝对制胜的策略。
“我对美国有一点理解，”麦克威廉斯补充道，“那就是他们大体上‘不恨富人……他们受不了的是专业阶层’。”他说，在美国，富人并非仇恨的对象，这源于文化对金钱的态度：“金钱是强大的平衡器。”（*）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
David McWilliams is shaking off the jet lag after his trip from Ireland to Los Angeles as he opens a Zoom call and logs on with Fortune. The widely read (and listened to) economist, with hundreds of thousands of followers on X and an economics podcast with claims to be Europe's most popular, McWilliams is also, frankly, a very nice and affable man. He regales Fortune with tales of his adventures in New York City in the late 1980s, when he spent a summer working at the Red Lion on Bleecker Street, a job he got from “an uncle of a friend of mine.”
A Dubliner, McWilliams landed in the U.S. just 24 hours before talking to Fortune, as he was starting on a nationwide tour for the release of his History of Money, a widely acclaimed, international bestseller released in Europe in 2024. (In a blurb, Bono called it a “swashbuckling epic of grand sweeps and tight close-ups.”) McWilliams told Fortune he already sensed something different about America: “You kind of feel the boominess of the place, right?” He related his astonishment at getting in an Uber and being bombarded with a driver's speculative initiatives. “Within two minutes, he was talking about the stock market, Bitcoin, AI, Nvidia, the whole thing. And I'm, like, driving down Sunset Boulevard with this guy, right?”
McWilliams added that you wouldn't see such a thing in Ireland, and “the way in which finance permeates the society” in the U.S. is “very, very different” from Europe. “The universality of money in the United States is something that Europeans find fascinating,” he said, noting it was the same way going all the way back to the 1840s and the travel writings of the Frenchman Alexis de Tocqueville. When de Tocqueville arrived in America, McWilliams said, “his whole idea was like, 'My God, these people are obsessed with money.' Europeans were obsessed with other stuff, you know, hierarchy.”
And that is how, McWilliams, one of the world's most closely followed popular economists, said matter-of-factly that America's “boominess,” led by its piling into the artificial intelligence trade, is “undoubtedly going to crash.” Not only is it the case that “AI doesn't create any jobs,” he noted, but the key investments driving the boom are rapidly perishable. The massive investment in graphics processing units (GPUs) is problematic, McWilliams said, because it's “digital lettuce,” prone to wilting before too long. “You're investing in something that is a perishable good.”
“Technological change suggests that if you buy a GPU today, the chip is going to be outdated next year,” McWilliams explained, adding AI companies are “investing huge amounts of money in lettuce, which is going to go off now,” he said, referring to his mother's expression for when a head of lettuce, well, went off.
McWilliams was wading into a debate here that longtime markets watcher Ed Yardeni calls “the useful life debate,” and that famous Big Short investor Michael Burry claims is the tip of a giant iceberg threatening the whole market. Burry, in particular, has noted the lengthening of depreciation schedules as suspicious, with Big Tech not marking to market on their unprofitable investments in McWilliams' “digital lettuce.” Ultimately, Yardeni wrote on Nov. 17, he does not believe this digital lettuce is due to wilt as rapidly as Burry and McWilliams say: “Data centers existed before AI caught on in late 2022, when ChatGPT was first introduced. During 2021, there were as many as 4,000 of them in the U.S. as a result of the rapidly increasing demand for cloud computing. Many are still operating with their original chips.” (McWilliams's interview with Fortune took place before Nvidia disclosed its latest quarterly earnings, which seemed to assuage market fears about an imminent bubble bursting.)
Still, McWilliams told Fortune that even in the event of a crash, he isn't too worried about the U.S. as the innovation center of the world. A big reason why has to do with his Uber driver in Los Angeles. And it's a key part of why America is such a key player in the history of money.
The 'iconoclast society' and the secret of innovation
McWilliams has no time for most economics texts, describing them as just too boring for the general public. He said he's “always thought that the key to understanding economics is to grab economics away from second-rate mathematicians and put it back into the realm of storytelling.” He believes humans are “hardwired to tell stories, we are not hardwired to explain the world through mathematics.” And defining money as a technology, like fire, that humans invented long ago and have shaped and reshaped through millennia, was the spark for his new book.
He describes how anthropologists and biologists refer to humans as a “pyrophytic species,” which adapted to and was constantly adapting along with the technology known as fire. Money was invented to function the same way, he believes, and that's why he expressed confidence in America coming through whatever crash lurks ahead. He sees the U.S. as an “iconoclast society” at heart, driven by its chaotic—but ultimately innovative—nature.
McWilliams explained he sees Europe as a society run like an “insurance policy,” designed to mitigate risk, whereas the U.S. is defined by embracing it. He said he sees the innovation that produces something like the AI boom is a feature, almost a byproduct of this attitude. “Acceptance of risk is why the U.S. is much more innovative than Europe,” he said, arguing: “This innovative spirit is rooted in American history, going back to Alexander Hamilton, who established a great banking system and currency, allowing the revolutionary economy to borrow in its own paper within four or five years.”
McWilliams said the U.S. seems to understand innovation is “proximate”—the combination of small innovations, holding up his smartphone to the camera and noting it's a proximate product, combining a phone, computer, camera, and telephone, “which Europeans would never have conceived of.” He used the metaphor of a hammer and a nail, saying a nail is not very useful unless it's used in combination with a hammer.
In Europe, on the other hand, “the whole idea is you mitigate risk all the time, right? You go to public health, you go to public schools, you get a job, can't get fired, all that sort of stuff.” McWilliams added risk for Europeans “is something that is taken by weirdos in the United States,” adding risk is “the defining psychological state of the American.”
Better marketing for 'creative destruction'
McWilliams said a big reason his book has been translated into so many languages (21 of them, to be exact) is to get across the theories of the legendary Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter: Even though he was a “bizarre” character, said McWilliams, he “had the right idea, that basically, the economy is a large evolutionary mechanism, and the forces of evolution are the forces that propel innovation, and the forces of innovation are the forces that propel society and wealth creation.” When it's pointed out to him that Schumpeter's famous phrase, “creative destruction,” is a bit of a difficult sell, McWilliams agreed: “He needed a better marketing department, but his ideas were right.” (The Nobel Committee, based in Norway, offered a tacit endorsement of Schumpeter in 2025, awarding the economics prize to several economists who further unpacked the concept of “creative destruction.”)
Returning to the subject of a potential AI bubble popping in the U.S., McWilliams said he's not concerned about AI companies growing “too big to fail,” a concern after recent remarks by OpenAI executives. The only real threat to the broader economy, according to McWilliams, would be if the AI industry successfully convinces the Trump administration that chips are “strategic assets” or a matter of “national security”—linking them to the military industrial complex.
McWilliams ruled this out, owing to political sentiment. He suggested that if President Donald Trump were to run again, his highly evolved “populist instincts” would recognize that being “against Silicon Valley is an absolute winner” electorally.
“One thing I've understood about America,” McWilliams added, is they by and large “don't hate rich people ... It's the professional class they can't stand.” The rich aren't something to be hated in America, he said, because of the cultural attitude toward money: “Money is a great leveler.”