美国银行（Bank of America）全球研究部发布报告称，全球媒体行业都在“历史性变革”边缘，而华纳兄弟探索公司（WBD）处于资产估值与竞争策略重大转变的“风暴中心”。随着华纳兄弟探索公司成为激烈整合的焦点，至少三大竞购方加入了战局，包括派拉蒙天舞（Paramount Skydance）、Netflix和康卡斯特（Comcast）。美国银行认为，这场竞购战将导致“行业格局重塑”。
华纳兄弟探索公司的未来存在多种可能性，包括被派拉蒙天舞整体收购，或与康卡斯特结构性整合，不过美国银行特别强调Netflix具有独特战略优势。报告指出，Netflix若收购成功有望实现 “一石三鸟”，在曾经被称为 “流媒体大战” 的竞争中，华纳兄弟探索公司正是最新的必争资产。
皇冠上的明珠：华纳兄弟影业
针对华纳兄弟探索公司的激烈角逐，很大程度上源于其核心资产即华纳兄弟影业具有的稀缺性溢价。美国银行表示，华纳兄弟探索公司拥有世界上最具价值的内容库之一，其知识产权（IP）库涵盖从《哈利·波特》到DC漫画再到《权力的游戏》等经典内容，堪称“皇冠明珠”级资产。资深媒体娱乐分析师杰西卡・赖夫・埃利希领衔的美银分析师估算，华纳兄弟探索公司的整体收购价值约为每股30美元（截至发稿时，其股价略高于24美元。）
据报道，Netflix关注点明确集中在华纳兄弟探索公司的电影和流媒体资产上，交易估值可能超过700亿美元。对Netflix而言，这意味着其战略将从打造原创IP转向收购成熟的“IP护城河”。Netflix的流媒体用户数无可争议地遥遥领先，但长期以来在可用于主题公园、游戏、周边商品和百老汇演出等多元场景的优质IP库方面，一直落后于其他媒体公司。
美国银行指出，打造像《哈利·波特》的系列“需要大量时间和投资”，而直接购买能立刻投产，风险低，还能通过潜在的重启、前传或其他系列扩展带来显著的增长空间。
“在多个IP领域，华纳兄弟提供了Netflix在较短时间内无法通过自身增长复刻的深度，”美国银行写道，更重要的是，鉴于这些IP将补齐Netflix的武器库，将对公司所各大竞争对手造成致命打击。“如果Netflix收购华纳兄弟，流媒体战争基本结束，”埃利希的团队写道。以下是如果Netflix动用资金大炮瞄准华纳兄弟探索公司，“三鸟”将如何落地。
一石三鸟：巩固权力
Netflix收购将打下的第一个“鸟”是华纳兄弟探索公司本身，因为其流媒体和影业资产将消失，被纳入占主导地位的流媒体平台。
“Netflix将成为好莱坞无可争议的全球巨头，甚至超越目前的领先地位，”根据美国银行的说法，公司掌握的 “内容护城河” 任何独立流媒体平台都无法企及，合并后的业务将占据美国流媒体市场逾五分之一份额。
目前，尼尔森数据显示Netflix约占电视总流媒体观看时间的18%，HBO Max（华纳兄弟探索公司旗下）占3%。合并后的实体将远超其他竞争对手，如迪士尼（11%）和亚马逊Prime Video（8%）。只有YouTube（28%）能保持更高市场份额，而很多人认为YouTube才是Netflix真正的对手。
美国银行还预测，Netflix将继续通过院线发行华纳兄弟的影片，多年来对这家流媒体巨头来说一直是争议话题。联合首席执行官泰德・萨兰多斯因拒绝配合影片大范围院线发行，长期跟影院运营商关系紧张，有时甚至剑拔弩张。Netflix在纽约（巴黎剧院）和洛杉矶（埃及剧院）收购了一些精品影院，放映有望冲击奥斯卡的优质电影，但并不广泛发行。该策略第一个重大突破可能是格蕾塔・葛韦格即将上映的《纳尼亚》改编作品，但萨兰多斯坚称该片仅发行IMAX版，这是Netflix首次涉足体育节目，即圣诞节NFL比赛时采用的活动化商业模式。新闻平台Puck上颇具影响力的马特・贝洛尼等行业观察人士质疑，《纳尼亚》会不会成为转折点，而收购华纳兄弟探索公司无疑将在这条路上走得更远。
其他效果
第二和第三只“鸟”直接关乎Netflix的竞争对手。报告指出，对中型传统媒体/公司来说，很难比得上Netflix的单位经济效益，也无力抗衡亚马逊等科技巨头的生态。Netflix收购华纳兄弟探索公司将威胁到派拉蒙天舞和NBC环球（NBCUniversal）“生死存亡”，Netflix强大的防御壁垒也会更加坚不可摧。
通过收购华纳兄弟探索公司的工作室和流媒体资产，Netflix将严重阻碍派拉蒙+和Peacock全球扩张的雄心。美国银行团队特别指出，康卡斯特正处于“关键时刻”，因为公司正准备将日益衰退的有线电视网络分拆为名叫Versant的公司（华纳兄弟探索公司也想采用类似战略），同时其流媒体平台在美国缺乏规模，在美国境外又不可用。
美国银行团队并未探讨反垄断或其他可能影响收购的因素。据悉，近一年来派拉蒙一心想收购华纳兄弟探索公司，其控股股东的埃里森家族与白宫关系密切，甲骨文创始人拉里・埃里森作为全球顶级富豪也是人工智能和科技领域的重要力量。埃里森曾与鲁珀特・默多克、迈克尔・戴尔等人一起，参与控制TikTok美国业务。如今他的儿子大卫・埃里森执掌派拉蒙，近期任命Free Press的巴里・韦斯担任主编以重整重塑CBS新闻。如果派拉蒙能将华纳兄弟探索公司这颗明珠收入囊中，发展前景将大不一样。（*）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
美国银行（Bank of America）全球研究部发布报告称，全球媒体行业都在“历史性变革”边缘，而华纳兄弟探索公司（WBD）处于资产估值与竞争策略重大转变的“风暴中心”。随着华纳兄弟探索公司成为激烈整合的焦点，至少三大竞购方加入了战局，包括派拉蒙天舞（Paramount Skydance）、Netflix和康卡斯特（Comcast）。美国银行认为，这场竞购战将导致“行业格局重塑”。
华纳兄弟探索公司的未来存在多种可能性，包括被派拉蒙天舞整体收购，或与康卡斯特结构性整合，不过美国银行特别强调Netflix具有独特战略优势。报告指出，Netflix若收购成功有望实现 “一石三鸟”，在曾经被称为 “流媒体大战” 的竞争中，华纳兄弟探索公司正是最新的必争资产。
皇冠上的明珠：华纳兄弟影业
针对华纳兄弟探索公司的激烈角逐，很大程度上源于其核心资产即华纳兄弟影业具有的稀缺性溢价。美国银行表示，华纳兄弟探索公司拥有世界上最具价值的内容库之一，其知识产权（IP）库涵盖从《哈利·波特》到DC漫画再到《权力的游戏》等经典内容，堪称“皇冠明珠”级资产。资深媒体娱乐分析师杰西卡・赖夫・埃利希领衔的美银分析师估算，华纳兄弟探索公司的整体收购价值约为每股30美元（截至发稿时，其股价略高于24美元。）
据报道，Netflix关注点明确集中在华纳兄弟探索公司的电影和流媒体资产上，交易估值可能超过700亿美元。对Netflix而言，这意味着其战略将从打造原创IP转向收购成熟的“IP护城河”。Netflix的流媒体用户数无可争议地遥遥领先，但长期以来在可用于主题公园、游戏、周边商品和百老汇演出等多元场景的优质IP库方面，一直落后于其他媒体公司。
美国银行指出，打造像《哈利·波特》的系列“需要大量时间和投资”，而直接购买能立刻投产，风险低，还能通过潜在的重启、前传或其他系列扩展带来显著的增长空间。
“在多个IP领域，华纳兄弟提供了Netflix在较短时间内无法通过自身增长复刻的深度，”美国银行写道，更重要的是，鉴于这些IP将补齐Netflix的武器库，将对公司所各大竞争对手造成致命打击。“如果Netflix收购华纳兄弟，流媒体战争基本结束，”埃利希的团队写道。以下是如果Netflix动用资金大炮瞄准华纳兄弟探索公司，“三鸟”将如何落地。
一石三鸟：巩固权力
Netflix收购将打下的第一个“鸟”是华纳兄弟探索公司本身，因为其流媒体和影业资产将消失，被纳入占主导地位的流媒体平台。
“Netflix将成为好莱坞无可争议的全球巨头，甚至超越目前的领先地位，”根据美国银行的说法，公司掌握的 “内容护城河” 任何独立流媒体平台都无法企及，合并后的业务将占据美国流媒体市场逾五分之一份额。
目前，尼尔森数据显示Netflix约占电视总流媒体观看时间的18%，HBO Max（华纳兄弟探索公司旗下）占3%。合并后的实体将远超其他竞争对手，如迪士尼（11%）和亚马逊Prime Video（8%）。只有YouTube（28%）能保持更高市场份额，而很多人认为YouTube才是Netflix真正的对手。
美国银行还预测，Netflix将继续通过院线发行华纳兄弟的影片，多年来对这家流媒体巨头来说一直是争议话题。联合首席执行官泰德・萨兰多斯因拒绝配合影片大范围院线发行，长期跟影院运营商关系紧张，有时甚至剑拔弩张。Netflix在纽约（巴黎剧院）和洛杉矶（埃及剧院）收购了一些精品影院，放映有望冲击奥斯卡的优质电影，但并不广泛发行。该策略第一个重大突破可能是格蕾塔・葛韦格即将上映的《纳尼亚》改编作品，但萨兰多斯坚称该片仅发行IMAX版，这是Netflix首次涉足体育节目，即圣诞节NFL比赛时采用的活动化商业模式。新闻平台Puck上颇具影响力的马特・贝洛尼等行业观察人士质疑，《纳尼亚》会不会成为转折点，而收购华纳兄弟探索公司无疑将在这条路上走得更远。
其他效果
第二和第三只“鸟”直接关乎Netflix的竞争对手。报告指出，对中型传统媒体/公司来说，很难比得上Netflix的单位经济效益，也无力抗衡亚马逊等科技巨头的生态。Netflix收购华纳兄弟探索公司将威胁到派拉蒙天舞和NBC环球（NBCUniversal）“生死存亡”，Netflix强大的防御壁垒也会更加坚不可摧。
通过收购华纳兄弟探索公司的工作室和流媒体资产，Netflix将严重阻碍派拉蒙+和Peacock全球扩张的雄心。美国银行团队特别指出，康卡斯特正处于“关键时刻”，因为公司正准备将日益衰退的有线电视网络分拆为名叫Versant的公司（华纳兄弟探索公司也想采用类似战略），同时其流媒体平台在美国缺乏规模，在美国境外又不可用。
美国银行团队并未探讨反垄断或其他可能影响收购的因素。据悉，近一年来派拉蒙一心想收购华纳兄弟探索公司，其控股股东的埃里森家族与白宫关系密切，甲骨文创始人拉里・埃里森作为全球顶级富豪也是人工智能和科技领域的重要力量。埃里森曾与鲁珀特・默多克、迈克尔・戴尔等人一起，参与控制TikTok美国业务。如今他的儿子大卫・埃里森执掌派拉蒙，近期任命Free Press的巴里・韦斯担任主编以重整重塑CBS新闻。如果派拉蒙能将华纳兄弟探索公司这颗明珠收入囊中，发展前景将大不一样。（*）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
The global media industry is standing at the precipice of a “historic transformation,” with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) positioned directly at the “epicenter” of a significant shift in asset valuation and competitive strategy, according to Bank of America (BofA) Global Research. With WBD the focus of intense consolidation efforts, attracting bids from at least three key players—Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Netflix (NFLX), and Comcast (CMCSA)—BofA sees nothing less than “industry realignment” as the result of the bidding war.
While there are multiple scenarios for WBD’s future, including a whole-company acquisition by PSKY or a structural engineering combination by CMCSA, BofA highlights the unique strategic leverage afforded to Netflix. The report asserts an acquisition by Netflix could potentially be “killing three birds with one stone,” with WBD the latest must-have asset in the competition once known as “the streaming wars.”
A crown-jewel studio
The intense interest in WBD stems largely from the scarcity premium commanded by its primary asset: the Warner Bros. Studio. WBD’s intellectual property (IP) library, ranging from Harry Potter to DC Comics to Game of Thrones, makes the studio a “crown jewel” asset, BofA said, with one of—if not the most valuable—content libraries in the world. BofA analysts, led by senior media and entertainment analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich, estimated the takeout value of the consolidated WBD at approximately $30 per share. (It was trading slightly above $24 at press time.)
Netflix’s reported focus is specifically on WBD’s studio and streaming assets, a deal likely to be valued at more than $70 billion. For Netflix, this would represent a significant pivot from building original franchises to buying established “franchise moats.” While Netflix is the undisputed leader in streaming subscribers, it has historically lagged behind other media companies in deep IP libraries that offer potential use cases for theme parks, gaming, merchandising, and Broadway shows.
Building a franchise like Harry Potter “takes a significant amount of time and investment,” BofA notes, while buying it would provide immediate, low-risk engagement, with significant upside from potential reboots, prequels, or other franchise extensions.
“Warner Bros.’ library offers a depth that Netflix cannot replicate organically within a reasonably short time frame across several pieces of IP,” BofA writes, but more important, it would be a death blow to all of Netflix’s rivals given this IP would complete the Netflix arsenal. “If Netflix acquires Warner Bros., the streaming wars are effectively over,” Ehrlich’s team wrote. Here’s how the birds would fall to the ground if Netflix were to fire its money cannon at WBD.
The triple kill: Consolidating power
The first “bird” killed by a Netflix acquisition would be WBD itself, as its streaming and studio assets would vanish, to be housed within the dominant streaming platform.
“Netflix would become the undisputed global powerhouse of Hollywood beyond even its currently loſty position,” according to BofA, with a “content moat” that no stand-alone streamer could touch and combined efforts accounting for more than a fifth of U.S. streaming.
Currently, Nielsen data places Netflix at roughly 18% share of total TV streaming viewing time, with HBO Max (WBD) contributing another 3%. A combined entity would far exceed other competitors like Disney (11%) and Amazon Prime Video (8%). Only YouTube (28%), which many argue has become Netflix’s true rival, would retain a larger share size.
BofA also predicts Netflix would continue to offer Warner Bros. films via theatrical distribution, which has been a controversial subject for years for the big-red streamer. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos has been in a long-running cold—and sometimes hot—war with theater owners over his refusal to play ball with wide releases. Netflix has acquired some boutique theaters in New York (the Paris Theater) and Los Angeles (The Egyptian), where it airs its prestige, Oscar-favorite movies, but it has not played ball with wide releases. The first major crack in this strategy may be Greta Gerwig’s forthcoming Narnia adaptation, but Sarandos has insisted that is limited to IMAX releases only, an event-ized business model Netflix has replicated with its first foray into sports programming, the Christmas Day NFL games. Hollywood watchers like Puck’s influential Matt Belloni have questioned whether Narnia is some kind of tipping point, and a WBD acquisition would surely be a step deeper in that direction.
The other birds
The second and third “birds” relate directly to Netflix’s competitors. The report notes that for midsize legacy media studios/companies, competing with Netflix’s unit economics or the ecosystems of large tech players like Amazon is increasingly difficult. An acquisition of WBD by Netflix would be “existential” for both Paramount Skydance and NBCUniversal (NBCU), effectively solidifying Netflix’s powerful defensive position.
By acquiring WBD’s studio and streaming assets, Netflix would significantly hinder the global scale aspirations of both Paramount+ and Peacock. The BofA team noted Comcast, in particular, is at a “critical juncture” because it is preparing to spin off its declining cable networks into a company known as Versant (a strategy also being pursued by WBD), while it is contending with a streaming platform that both lacks scale domestically and isn’t available outside the U.S.
The BofA team did not discuss antitrust considerations or other factors that may sway the bidding for WBD. Paramount has reportedly been pursuing WBD with a single-minded intensity for close to a year, and its controlling Ellison family has close ties to the White House, with Oracle founder Larry Ellison a power player as one of the world’s richest men and a major force in AI and technology. Ellison was one of the key names, along with Rupert Murdoch and Michael Dell, who emerged in the group controlling the U.S. arm of TikTok. A Paramount run by his son, David Ellison, who recently moved to reshape CBS News with the appointment of the Free Press’s Bari Weiss as editor-in-chief, would be a very different prospect with a new jewel in its crown.