备受关注的美国11月就业数据将于本周公布。对于华尔街而言，即便数据表现平淡，也可能被视为一个好消息。
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的分析师指出，劳动力市场适度降温可能会增加美联储进一步降息的可能性。对于许多着眼于未来盈利增长的投资者来说，这是一个诱人的前景，或将刺激股市的看涨情绪。
摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师兼首席投资官迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）在周一给投资者的报告中写道：“我们现在明确回到了一个‘好消息即是坏消息，坏消息即是好消息’的局面。”
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周颇具争议的降息决定（这是美联储在连续三次会议上第三次降息），是基于一系列显示就业市场疲软的持续数据。这些数据包括截至9月失业率连续三个月上升，以及根据ADP（美国自动数据处理公司）11月报告，私营部门上月裁减了3.2万个工作岗位。
鲍威尔表示，这次25个基点的降息是防御性的，旨在防止劳动力市场急剧下滑。他补充说，尽管通胀率目前约为2.8%，高于美联储2%的目标水平，但只要不施加额外的关税，他预计通胀将在明年初见顶。
他还指出，由于数据收集错误，月度就业数据可能被高估了约6万。这意味着近几个月的就业增长可能实际上停滞不前，甚至为负。
“我认为，在就业创造转为负增长的情况下……我们需要非常仔细地关注这一点。”鲍威尔在宣布降息后紧接着的新闻发布会上表示。
威尔逊指出，鲍威尔对就业数据的重视，以及对关税引发通胀的淡化，使得劳动力市场成为2026年货币政策的一个关键因素。
受政府停摆影响，美国劳工部的就业市场报告将于周二发布，其中将包含10月和11月的数据。预计11月就业人数将小幅增加5万，失业率将从4.4%微升至约4.5%。这与劳动力市场正在放缓但并未突然触底的趋势相符。
“滚动复苏”与单纯的坏消息
这位摩根士丹利的策略师此前曾提出，疲弱的就业数据实际上是“滚动复苏”的迹象，即经济处于上行初期，复苏正缓慢在各个领域传导。此前三年则是“滚动衰退”，威尔逊称那段时间经济的实际状况比就业和GDP数据所显示的更为疲弱。
在威尔逊看来，由于就业数据是滞后指标，劳动力周期的低谷实际上早在今年春季就已出现，当时恰逢DOGE（假设为某部门或项目简称）大规模裁员以及“解放日”关税实施。他认为，要更准确地反映经济健康状况，应转而关注市场表现。例如，标准普尔500指数在过去六个月上涨了近13%。
然而，威尔逊指出，由于鲍威尔的政策决策基于就业等数据，即使摩根士丹利认为劳动力市场并无危险，美联储仍可能看到更多的降息空间。
“实时来看，数据并未疲弱到足以证明需要进一步降息，”威尔逊在美联储会议前一周接受CNBC采访时表示。“但当他们现在看到修正后的数据时……很明显，我们经历了一个显著的劳动力周期，并且已经走了出来，这非常好。”
不过，正如经济学家们并未就联邦公开市场委员会最近一次的降息达成共识一样，就业数据可能进一步疲软的可能性也并非人人乐见。
新世纪顾问公司（New Century Advisors）首席经济学家、前美联储经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆（Claudia Sahm）也同意就业数据是滞后经济指标，但她警告说，这可能表明经济衰退正在进行中，而非我们已经安然无恙。她特别担心的是，滞后的劳动力数据可能预示着更糟的就业消息，因为在职位空缺减少之后，裁员潮尚未激增。（*）
译者:朴成奎
备受关注的美国11月就业数据将于本周公布。对于华尔街而言，即便数据表现平淡，也可能被视为一个好消息。
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的分析师指出，劳动力市场适度降温可能会增加美联储进一步降息的可能性。对于许多着眼于未来盈利增长的投资者来说，这是一个诱人的前景，或将刺激股市的看涨情绪。
摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师兼首席投资官迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）在周一给投资者的报告中写道：“我们现在明确回到了一个‘好消息即是坏消息，坏消息即是好消息’的局面。”
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周颇具争议的降息决定（这是美联储在连续三次会议上第三次降息），是基于一系列显示就业市场疲软的持续数据。这些数据包括截至9月失业率连续三个月上升，以及根据ADP（美国自动数据处理公司）11月报告，私营部门上月裁减了3.2万个工作岗位。
鲍威尔表示，这次25个基点的降息是防御性的，旨在防止劳动力市场急剧下滑。他补充说，尽管通胀率目前约为2.8%，高于美联储2%的目标水平，但只要不施加额外的关税，他预计通胀将在明年初见顶。
他还指出，由于数据收集错误，月度就业数据可能被高估了约6万。这意味着近几个月的就业增长可能实际上停滞不前，甚至为负。
“我认为，在就业创造转为负增长的情况下……我们需要非常仔细地关注这一点。”鲍威尔在宣布降息后紧接着的新闻发布会上表示。
威尔逊指出，鲍威尔对就业数据的重视，以及对关税引发通胀的淡化，使得劳动力市场成为2026年货币政策的一个关键因素。
受政府停摆影响，美国劳工部的就业市场报告将于周二发布，其中将包含10月和11月的数据。预计11月就业人数将小幅增加5万，失业率将从4.4%微升至约4.5%。这与劳动力市场正在放缓但并未突然触底的趋势相符。
“滚动复苏”与单纯的坏消息
这位摩根士丹利的策略师此前曾提出，疲弱的就业数据实际上是“滚动复苏”的迹象，即经济处于上行初期，复苏正缓慢在各个领域传导。此前三年则是“滚动衰退”，威尔逊称那段时间经济的实际状况比就业和GDP数据所显示的更为疲弱。
在威尔逊看来，由于就业数据是滞后指标，劳动力周期的低谷实际上早在今年春季就已出现，当时恰逢DOGE（假设为某部门或项目简称）大规模裁员以及“解放日”关税实施。他认为，要更准确地反映经济健康状况，应转而关注市场表现。例如，标准普尔500指数在过去六个月上涨了近13%。
然而，威尔逊指出，由于鲍威尔的政策决策基于就业等数据，即使摩根士丹利认为劳动力市场并无危险，美联储仍可能看到更多的降息空间。
“实时来看，数据并未疲弱到足以证明需要进一步降息，”威尔逊在美联储会议前一周接受CNBC采访时表示。“但当他们现在看到修正后的数据时……很明显，我们经历了一个显著的劳动力周期，并且已经走了出来，这非常好。”
不过，正如经济学家们并未就联邦公开市场委员会最近一次的降息达成共识一样，就业数据可能进一步疲软的可能性也并非人人乐见。
新世纪顾问公司（New Century Advisors）首席经济学家、前美联储经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆（Claudia Sahm）也同意就业数据是滞后经济指标，但她警告说，这可能表明经济衰退正在进行中，而非我们已经安然无恙。她特别担心的是，滞后的劳动力数据可能预示着更糟的就业消息，因为在职位空缺减少之后，裁员潮尚未激增。（*）
译者:朴成奎
Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut rates last week for the third consecutive time.
Ahead of the highly anticipated November jobs data to be released this week, even lackluster numbers may be greeted with relief by Wall Street.
A moderately cooling labor market could increase the likelihood of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve—a tantalizing prospect for many investors eyeing future earnings growth—fueling bullish behaviors in the stock market, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
“We are now firmly back in a good is bad/bad is good regime,” Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to investors on Monday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s divisive cut last week, the Fed’s third cut in as many meetings, was based on consistent data showing a softening job market, including unemployment rising three months in a row through September, and the private sector shedding 32,000 jobs last month, per ADP’s November report.
According to Powell, the quarter-point cut was defensive and a way to prevent the labor market from tumbling, adding that while inflation sits at about 2.8%, which is higher than the Fed’s preferred 2%, he said he expects inflation to peak early next year, barring no additional tariffs.
He added that monthly jobs data may have been overcounted by about 60,000 as a result of data collection errors, and that payroll gains may actually be stagnant or even negative.
“I think a world where job creation is negative…we need to watch that very carefully,” Powell said at the press conference directly following the announcement of the rate cut.
Wilson suggested that Powell’s emphasis on the jobs data, as well as his de-emphasis on tariff-caused inflation, makes the labor market a crucial factor in monetary policy going into 2026.
As a result of the government shutdown, the Labor Department’s job market report will be released on Tuesday, which will contain data from both October and November, and is expected to show a modest 50,000 payroll gain in November, with the unemployment rate ticking up from 4.4% to about 4.5%, consistent with the trend of a labor market that is slowing, but not suddenly bottoming out.
‘Rolling recovery’ versus plain bad news
The Morgan Stanley strategist has previously argued that weak payroll numbers are actually a sign of a “rolling recovery,” with the economy in the early stages of an upswing slowly making its way through each sector. It follows three years of a “rolling recession” that Wilson said had kept the economy weaker than what employment and GDP figures suggested.
In Wilson’s eyes, because jobs data is a lagging metric, the trough of the labor cycle was actually back in the spring, coinciding with mass DOGE firings and “Liberation Day” tariffs. For a more accurate representation of the health of the economy, Wilson argued to look instead at the markets. The S&P 500, for example, is up nearly 13% over the past six months.
However, with Powell basing his policy decisions on data such as jobs, Wilson noted, the Fed could still see more room to cut, even as Morgan Stanley sees a labor market that is not in jeopardy.
“In real time, the data has not been weak enough to justify cutting more,” Wilson told CNBC last week prior to the Fed meeting. “But when they actually look at the revisions now…it’s very clear that we had a significant labor cycle, and we’ve come out of it, which is very good.”
But just as economists weren’t in consensus for the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent rate cut, the possibility of more meager jobs numbers is not universally favored.
Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist, agreed the jobs data is a lagging economic indicator, but warned it could indicate a recession is underway, not that we’re already in the clear. What was particularly concerning to her was that lagging labor data could bear worse job news, as layoffs have yet to surge following shrinking job openings.